South-east Queensland and Northern NSW by Steve Shearer (issued Mon July 1st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Better S'ly swells for Northern NSW on Tues (still not getting into SE Qld) but with mod/fresh SE winds
• Solid, punchy E/SE swell sometime between Tues & Wed favopuhring SEQLD with fun waves on the Points
• Plenty od solid S swell in NENSW from Tues into Wed
• Solid rebuild in S/SE swell Thurs into Fri, biggest in NENSW
• S-SE winds all week and into the weekend as monster high in Bight holds firm ridge up the coast
• Easing S/SE swell over the weekend with E/SE trade-style swell holding fun waves
• S’ly groundswell pulses early next week Mon, biggest Tues, easing Wed
• Likely another round of unseasonal E’ly tradewind swell next week, with potential for good surf on the Points

Recap

Not much of note over the weekend with a small mixed bag to 1-2ft Sat across open beaches and tiny leftovers and marginal E swell to 0.5-1ft yesterday. Conditions were clean both mornings before N’lies kicked in, strongly on Sun. A S’ly change o/night is now starting to generate some small raggedy S swell across the MNC mixed with some small NE windswell, tiny north of Yamba but extending up to the border by close of play. We have an extended period of S’ly quarter winds ahead and some unseasonal swell sources as Ben mentioned on Fri. Details below.

Small blend on the MNC with building S swells 

This week (July 1-5)

The synoptic pattern looks unseasonal with a huge, slow moving high in the Bight, expected to be reinforced by another cell to create a blocking pattern below the continent and maintain a long lasting ridge up the Eastern Seaboard this week. Although the constant S-SE winds will be problematic there’ll be heaps of swell as low pressure remains in the Tasman, with a slingshot fetch expected as the low moves N during the week. A trough in the Coral Sea accentuates an unstable SE flow in the sub-tropics and adds a local source of SE-E/SE swell into the mix north of Coffs. The high will be dominant right through into next week, as it slowly drifts into the Tasman, with some possibly juicy long range scenarios.

In the short run and through-out the working week we’ll see S’ly quarter winds. Mostly tending S/SE-SE.  A an angled trough forms off the SEQLD/Fraser Coast tomorrow, before moving north on Wed. Models have downgraded the trough over the weekend but it will still be a useful swell source for the SEQLD region. SE-E/SE winds feeding into the trough will generate a building E/SE swell in the a’noon, favouring SEQLD- up into the 3-4ft range. NENSW will see this swell slightly attenuated but strong S’ly swell will be dominant with size to 3-5ft across S exposed breaks, smaller into regional Points. It’ll be a bit of a tricky day but there will be surf, most of it on the Points.

E/SE swell holds 3-4ft of surf across SEQLD on Wed, easing later in the day with mod/fresh SE winds confining clean surf to the Points. Slightly smaller E/SE swell in NENSW where continuing S-S/SE swell will hold 3-5ft of size.

By Thurs we’ll see the trough move right out of the swell window so SEQLD will ease back in size. NENSW will see an increase from the northwards moving low and slingshot fetch (see below) with continuing S/SE-SE winds across the entire region. We should see surf push up into the 5-6ft range Thurs a’noon with bigger sets to 6-8ft possible across open exposures. Regional points will be a notch smaller and protected north facing points and bays smaller still. 

Thursdays increase holds into Fri with strong 6-8ft surf from the S/SE in NENSW, grading smaller 3-5ft in SEQLD and even smaller into the Points. They will likely be the only option as mod/fresh S/SE winds remain across the region.

In short a windy week ahead with lots of swell, most of it unusable across windy exposed breaks with much smaller surf into the protected points.

This weekend (July 6-7)

The monster high slowly moves E over the weekend with a firm through relaxing ridge up the sub-tropical coast. We’ll still see plenty of S/SE-SE wind Sat with Fridays pulse slowly easing off as the low dissipates. Expect size in the 4-5 occ 6ft range in NENSW dropping through the day, smaller 3-4ft and easing in SEQLD. Tradewind style E/SE swell from winds in the Coral Sea will add similar size surf on Sat, extending into Sun. That will see fun surf on the Points and onshore beachies for the most part.

Winds do eased a notch on Sun but it’s unlikely to clean up enough for the beachies so we’re mostly looking at smaller 2-3ft surf across the Points.

Next week (July 8 onwards)

Winds should tend E’ly through early/mid next week as the high moves across the Tasman. We will see some long period S groundswell show through from Mon from a series of powerful fetches moving well to the south later this week and into the weekend. These fetches are better aimed at Pacific targets but the magnitude of the seas generated will see some long period sideband energy show across NENSW starting Mon in the 2-3ft range, bigger 3-4ft on Tues. S magnets in SEQLD should show 2ft sets later Mon with some 3ft sets Tues but winds will be a problem.

E’ly winds should establish early next week as the large high moves across the Tasman, eventually straddling the North Island. We’re also expecting, under current modelling, an increase in E-E/NE winds across the Southern Coral extending into Northern Tasman Seas and extending eastwards into the South Pacific slot between New Zealand and the Pacific Islands. EC is even suggesting a broad area of low pressure forming in a trough line in the Coral Sea which would anchor this fetch. 

The will favour sub-tropical areas for an out of season E-E/NE swell next week. Nothing sizey, in the 3 occ. 4ft range but offering a nice change from winter S swells.

Early days so let’s see how it looks on Wed.

Seeya then.