South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon May 6th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• SE surge brings an increase in short range swell Tues with fresh SE winds
• Another round of fun sized SE-E/SE swell this week with SE winds favouring the Points
• Winds backing down this weekend with a nice boost in E/SE swell Sat
• Long period S swell showing in NENSW Sat PM, holding Sun
• Fun sized E swell holds into the medium term at a minimum
• Tricky wind outlook early next week depending on formation of low off MNC or Hunter- check back Wed for latest updates

Recap

E swell was on offer through Sat in the 3-4ft range with the occ. bigger set and a range of surf quality on hand from very good on some Points to pretty ordinary across the beachies. Light breezes held in until squalls around a trough line moved in with SE-E/SE winds. Offshore wind Sun morning provided good conditions with long lined S groundswell offering up some good quality 3-4ft surf in NENSW, backed up by remaining E swell to 2-3ft. Clean conditions this morning before the next strong S-SE surge builds along the region but surf has declined into the 2 occ. 3ft range. Plenty more ahead this week through, favouring the Points again. 

Sets from the E/SE and S on Sun

This week (May 6-10)

We have a similar pattern to last week with monster high pressure (1037hPa) sitting in the Bight and becoming very slow moving as it approaches Tasmania. In fact, it becomes reinforced by a new high and this peanut high straddling Tasmania will hold a firm ridge along most of the Eastern Seaboard with another working week of SE winds, gradually backing off into the weekend. A stalled trough looks to linger off the coast bringing plenty of unstable weather and possibly windows of lighter winds. As yet, no concrete signs this trough may develop into a surface low and enhance surf potential and bring a clearing offshore flow. At least this week. 

In the short run and we’ll see SE winds again - as we will for most of this week- although once todays SE surge moves northwards we will see a relaxation in windspeeds from Wed so surface conditions shouldn’t be so wild and wooly for the second half of this week.

The SE surge and associated fetch through the Northern Tasman brings a raid increase in short range SE swell into tomorrow, with size building to 4-6ft, smaller into more sheltered Points.

Once the bulk of the SE surge moves north into Wed we’ll see that size come off the boil a little, ranging from 4-5ft at exposed outer Points down to a much smaller 2-3ft at more sheltered spots. Beachies will still be a mess with SE winds at fresh paces.

Wind prospects still look dodgy in the second half of the week with a straight onshore SE flow expected along the f/cast region. The caveat is a lingering trough which may offer periods of lighter winds or even reversals around rain systems. We’ll finesse that through the week but it’s unlikely we’ll see any real clean conditions this week. Mostly smaller E/SE swell to 3ft+ Thurs, smaller again into more sheltered points.

Same again for SE-E/SE swell through Fri- 3 occ. 4ft of surf- based on both short range winds feeding into the trough and a thickening up of the wind-field on the New Zealand side of the Tasman. It’s mostly disconnected increases in windspeeds in a board fetch so we’re not looking at any great increase in size or quality, more of the same fun surf on the Points. We may see some longer period S swell in the water in NENSW but given local wind conditions it’s hard to see any S facing beaches being clean enough to take advantage of it.

This weekend (May11-12)

Winds should drop right out this weekend.

Light W-SW through Sat AM with an E-E/SE-SE flow in the a’noon. Surf-wise we’re looking at a boosted  E/SE-E swell up into the 4ft range as winds near the North Island generate a little extra swell. Long period S swell to 3ft may show in the a’noon across the MNC to North Coast but Sun is a better bet.

Sun looks like a reasonable chance of winds tending offshore as a small, troughy area moves further offshore from the MNC, dragging an offshore flow with it. Light winds could offer the best surface conditions we’ve seen for a while with a mix of S groundswell and E/SE-E swell to 3-4ft. S facing magnets should see some bigger sets.

Next week (May 13 onwards)

Low confidence leading into next week, primarily due to the troughiness and model difficulty in resolving that atmospheric instability this far out.

We may see a small low pressure system form off the NSW Central Coast but models have consistently suggested this and it’s evaporated off the end of model runs so we’ll see how it looks Wed. If it comes off, we could expect some short range SE-E/SE swell generated from it, with winds depending on where the low is positioned- onshore on the southern flank, offshore to the north of the low centre. Current modelling suggests it will favour the Hunter to lower MNC region the most.

A general E’ly flow in the Tasman, extending out to a tradewind band in the South Pacific will supply small E’ly swell through next week.

Check back Wed and we’ll add further focus to the medium/long range as the picture becomes clearer.

Seeya then.