South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri May 3rd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Inconsistent E swell sets  persisting into Fri from low near North Island
• SE-E/SE swell  holds at fun levels Fri into Sat
• Longer period S swell favouring NENSW Sat PM, easing from Sun AM
• Another round of fun sized SE-E/SE swell next week with SE winds favouring Points

Recap

Fresh SE winds yesterday eventually whipped up some short range SE swell to 3ft by close of play. Much more energy into today with a mix of SE-E/SE swell to 3ft and some longer period E-E/SE swell offering up very inconsistent 3-4ft sets. Winds have remained from the S-SE with a period of W/SW-SW winds through the early morning not sufficient to clean up a confused sea state.

Another day of quality for the Superbank

This weekend (May4-5)

Monster high pressure has barely budged since Wed, maintaining a S-SE flow right up the Eastern Seaboard, with a coastal trough ensuring plenty of unstable, rainy weather. No great change to the weekend f/cast. The high becomes even more slow moving as it approaches Tasmania so we’re looking at S-SE flow over the weekend, with morning winds slighter and tending W/SW-SW as well as lighter periods around rain squalls.

Surf-wise S’ly groundswell propagating up the NSW coast will add some 3ft sets in the a’noon and will add to the short period mix of E-E/SE swells holding in the 3 occ. 4ft range. Most beaches will be a bit wind affected with the Points offering the best quality surf.

S swell holding 3ft sets into Sun with E-E/SE swell remaining in the 2-3ft range and basically offering another rinse and repeat day on the Points. Winds may be lighter for longer on Sun, with the potential for some cleaner beachbreaks- especially south of the border- if winds hold off into the mid-late morning.

Next week (May 6 onwards)

Ridge rebuilds strongly on Mon so expect another blast of SW-S tending S/SE-SE winds,  extending into Tues and tending more E/SE. Onshore winds will accompany an increase in local swell with short period SE swell building to 3-4ft with the occ. bigger set later Mon, bigger by a notch into Tues. Smaller into more protected bays.

Pressure gradients do look to ease mid/late week, potentially offering up some cleaner mornings although once again, we’re still at the mercy of a troughy pattern so confidence is very low on specifics. Under current modelling we’d expect winds to ease into Wed and Thurs with SE-E/SE swell hanging in the 3ft range. It’s possible a fetch near the North Island may offer some better quality surf but current modelling has the fetch ducking behind the North Island- we’ll revise on Mon. We may see some minor S swell in the mix during this period.

Into the end of next week and another strong high looks to approach from position well south of the Bight. We may see a spike in local S swell next weekend from a front in advance of the high, with good odds a new high pressure ridge will bring another round of SE wind and local swell next weekend.

At some point this Autumn, one of these troughy areas would be expected to form a surface low and offer up more surf potential than what we have been seeing but nothing is indicated at the moment so we’ll keep eyes on it over the weekend and report back Mon.

Seeya then and have a great weekend!