South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed May 1st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Building S-SE swells later Wed into Thurs
• Inconsistent E swell sets later Thurs, persisting into Fri from low near North Island
• SE-E/SE swell builds Thurs then holds at fun levels Fri into Sat
• Longer period S swell favouring NENSW Sat
• Another round of fun sized SE-E/SE swell next week with SE winds favouring Points
• Trough may form off Coast next week with uncertain wind and surf potential, check back Fri for specifics

Recap

Fun sized E swell yesterday, topping out at 2-3ft at open exposures with light winds which tended to S’lies in the a’noon. Size has temporarily decreased today with E swell bottoming out in the 2ft range (still the odd set on the Southern Gold Coast) and increasing S’ly winds as a trough and SE surge build up the coast. An increase in new short range SE swell is on track through the later a’noon.

A bit small and weak for the Points- still fun on the beachies before the S'ly whipped up

This week (May 1-May3)

A monster high (1042hPa) is slowly inching east well south of the Bight, with s S-SE flow anchored along the entire Eastern Seaboard. Troughs off the North Coast and inland will add instability to the onshore flow. A storm force polar low is better aimed at Pacific targets but we’ll still see some long period S groundswell from it this weekend, with the proviso that S’ly winds will remain persistent.

Not much change to the short run outlook. Mod/fresh S-SE winds with just a brief window of SW breezes on the Coolie points. Short range S/SE swell and sideband energy from a poorly aligned fetch on the eastern side of the Tasman will supply 2-4ft of surf but keep expectations hosed down as far as quality goes unless you have a very good point bank to force the short period swell into good wave shape.

Same again for Fri as far as winds go. We’ll see short range swells tend a little more E/SE in the 2-4ft range at most places as the windfield extends through the Coral Sea (see below) with quality surf confined to a few sheltered points. 

This weekend (May4-5)

Looking pretty good for Sat, with winds easing a notch , starting out light W/SW-SW and clocking around light SE-E/SE through the day and fun sized E/SE swell to 2-3ft with the occ. bigger set across open exposures. We will see some longer period S swell wrap in during the a’noon, offering up some 3-4ft sets at S facing beaches in NENSW, 2-3ft in SEQLD. 

Tricky winds Sun with models hinting (again) that we may see a trough form off the North Coast. Models have consistently suggested then backed down off these troughy areas deepening into a low in the Tasman and that seems to be the theme for this week as well with a coastal trough now looking likely. That would suggest widespread onshore winds and rain for Sun south of the trough with easing S swells. North of the trough will see offshore breezes and sunshine. Check back Fri and we’ll dial in the specifics. 

Next week (May 6 onwards)

Models are still struggling to resolve the synoptic pattern for next week , although we have some degree of confidence that we’ll see SE-E/SE winds Mon and into Tues as high pressure slowly (and finally!) moves into the Tasman. 

With a widespread E-SE wind field in the Tasman at a minimum we’ll see moderate amounts of E/SE-E swell through the first half of next week with another round of fun surf on the Points.

By mid week we may see a trough form off the Central or MNC or even the North Coast, possibly bringing an offshore flow to the f/cast region by Wed. 

The location of the long wave trough suggests more swell aimed at Pacific targets with glancing blows from long period S-S/SE swells likely later next week.

In short, nothing concrete on the menu- more fun sized E swell- but we’ll take another look at it on Fri.
Seeya then!