South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri April 26th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fun weekend with S swell favouring NENSW and light AM winds
• Small E swell persists over the weekend , possibly up a notch Sun PM
• Small E-E/SE swell persists early next week 
• Checking for trough in Tasman next week- possibly stronger E/SE swell if it develops
• Monitoring sub-tropical low near North Island for development in the swell window - medium confidence of fun, good quality E/SE swell Thurs/Fri
• Sizey SE swell possible Sun next week, check back Mon for revisions

Recap

Quality E quadrant swell held in there in the 3-4ft range yesterday (maybe even a smidge bigger on the Gold Coast) with light winds and a’noon S’lies. Today has backed off just a touch, but there are still some quality waves around, mostly on the Points, with SW tending S’ly winds. 

Shallow banks and clean E swell still combining nicely on the Superbank

This weekend (April 27-28)

Few tweaks to the weekend f/cast, mostly local winds. High pressure moves over NSW o/night into tomorrow, but the ridge along the sub-tropical coast is showing signs of stubbornness so we’ll see a bit more strength in the S tending SE flow, especially on Sat. Morning winds should still tend SW for most of NENSW and the Gold Coast before trending S then SE at moderate paces. A mix of mid period and longer period S swells will be in the water with surf to 3-4ft across S exposed breaks in NENSW and the occ. bigger 5ft set in the a’noon. Wave heights from this event have been a bit soft in Southern NSW, so we’ll keep expectations low for SEQLD, likely 2 occ. 3ft at S facing beaches with a smaller amount coming around the corner at Point Danger. Residual E swell will still offer some 2 occ. 3ft sets but it will be slow.

Nice conditions for Sun morning with light offshore winds, tending to light a’noon SE-E breezes.  Surf will be down on Sat but we should still see 3-4ft sets at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller 2ft in SEQLD where E swell will be hanging in there in the 2-3ft range. There is a slight intensification of the current Coral Sea low as it tracks away and we may see with medium confidence a few bigger 3ft sets across the a’noon but they will be random.

Next week (April 29 onwards)

There’s now quite a bit of model divergence around next week as potential troughiness and low pressure looks likely in the Tasman Sea.

Small E/SE swell Mon- generated by winds in the Coral Sea and the slot between New Caledonia and the North Island and offering up slow 2 occ. 3ft surf.

Things get interesting/dynamic from Tues. At issue is a trough in advance of a major high pressure ridge. At a minimum, the trough will charge up a SE surge along the NSW coast with an increase in S/SE-SE swell later Tues and into Wed. A front passing below the continent will add S’ly groundswell to that mix. 

ECMWF model then suggests the trough moving northwards, bringing the SE surge right up into SEQLD/Fraser coast waters with an increase in local swell from that direction. EC then suggests the trough deepening into a surface low off the North or Mid North Coast, with an increase in SE-E/SE swell focused on that area through Sun.

GFS has the trough deepening much further south through Wed into Thurs with small SE-E/SE swells through Wed into Thurs, potentially with offshore winds developing Thurs/Fri as the low moves southwards, before potentially redeveloping and generating a large S swell from the return flow Sun or Mon.

A trough north of the North Island looks to redevelop into a sub-tropical low and intensify on the edge of the swell window early next week (see below), favouring the sub-tropics for nice pulse of quality E-E/SE swell Thurs into Fri. Models are still differing in how long the system remains in the swell window for, so it’s not set in stone. We’ll get something from it, likely quality E/SE-E swell in the 3-4ft range but check back Mon for revisions. 

Until we get a better handle on where the potential surface low forms confidence remains extremely low as to specifics so make sure you check back Mon for the latest.

See you then and have a great weekend!