South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Mon Feb 19th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fun trade swell rebuilding this week, with generally light winds Tues/Wed/Thurs
• N'ly winds affecting things Friday
• Tricky weekend of waves, nothing major surf wise, and freshening N'ly winds ahead of a gusty S'ly change
• Small E'ly swells expected next week

Recap

Great waves were on offer at many coasts all weekend with 3-4ft E’ly swells both Saturday and Sunday, easing to 3ft+ this morning and down a little more in size this afternoon. Winds have been generally OK, lighter and usually offshore through the mornings with moderate onshores into the afternoons.

Random surfcam replay from Greenmount, Saturday afternoon

This week (Feb 20 - 23)

Our recent source of trade swell is expected to muscle up a little over the coming days (having eased slightly over the weekend), and will therefore supply a continuation of easterly swell through the next week or thereabouts. There's also some inbound energy due from stronger developments much further east late last week and over the weekend.

Wave heights look to rebuild from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday, pushing 3-4ft at times across exposed beaches north from Yamba, before easing and levelling through Thursday and Friday around the 3ft mark. Expect slightly smaller surf south from Yamba. Tuesday morning may also be a little undersized.

Also in the mix across Northern NSW on Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday, easing Thursday, will be a small undercurrent of southerly groundswell. It’s meant to be in the water right now (across Southern NSW) but seems to be a little delayed, and whatever energy we see in next few days will be very inconsistent, but south swell magnets south of Byron could pick up occasional 2-3ft sets. 

Conditions look great for the next three days with light variable winds under a weak pressure gradient. We’ll then see freshening N’ly winds across the Mid North Coast late Thursday, developing elsewhere throughout Friday, so make the most of the mid-week sessions.

This weekend (Feb 24 - 25)

A powerful cut off low will push across Tasmania later Friday and enter the lower Tasman Sea on Saturday. 

Model guidance isn’t very clear on how this change will evolve, so the outlook isn’t confident right now - but the most likely scenario is for southerly winds to reach the Mid North Coast on Saturday afternoon, and Far Northern NSW and SE Qld on Sunday.

Ahead of the change we’ll see N’ly tending NW winds, along with a mix of swells - mainly small easing E’ly trade swell in the 2-3ft range (smaller south from Yamba). Building S’ly swells are expected across Northern NSW both in the wake of the change, and also later Sunday and into Monday, sourced from the parent low as it rounds the Tasmanian corner on Saturday. 

All in all, it’s not looking at great this weekend but there will be some options around - they’ll just need further refinement in Wednesday’s update.

Next week (Feb 26 onwards)

Nothing major standing out in the long range charts right now, though the trades are expected to remain active so we’ll see a continuation of small E’ly swell into next week.