South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Jan 31st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small surf Thurs-Fri (bigger by a notch on the Sunshine Coast) with light winds, a few inconsistent sets from the E/SE- should be some clean surf on the beachies in the mornings
• Small surf Sat AM with a building S swell in the PM across NENSW with light onshore winds
• Stronger S swell Sun with freshening NE winds
• Workable E’ly tradewind swells developing next week with SE-E/SE winds becoming established
• Still some potential from the tropics, nothing concrete but stay tuned for latest updates

Recap

Local E-E/SE swells from winds feeding into a trough kicked up later Mon and extended into Tues in the 2-3ft range with generally low quality under E’ly winds. Surf has held at that size in SEQLD today, eased slightly south of the border as the trough moves north and drags the fetch with it. Winds have shifted more E/SE-SE offering up some small, clean peelers on the Points and a few scrappier options across the beachbreaks. 

Short period E/SE swell was workable but scrappy on the beachies

This week (Jan 31-Feb 2)

The high pressure belt is weak and moving at a more N’ly latitude than we’ve seen this summer, with a troughy pattern in the Tasman and some frontal activity under the SE of the continent continuing. A much stronger front and parent low tracks NE into the lower Tasman late this week with a broad band of gales to strong gales expected to generate some strong S swell over the weekend. The monsoon remains active with a small sub-tropical low movingE off the QLD coast where it may undergo further development In the Coral Sea in the medium term. A typical summer tradewind band cradles this low next week with plenty of E quadrant swell expected, favouring the sub-tropics for size.

In the short run the weak ridge and small low maintain a SE flow along the region, tending more light/variable around Coffs. We should see morning SW breezes across NENSW to the Southern Gold Coast for the early. Only small swells from the E expected with a few 2ft sets and some very inconsistent small E/SE swell to similar sizes. The Sunshine Coast should see more E-E/SE swell from the small low with 3ft surf across the region. 

Similar surf continues into Fri with 2ft or less of weak S and E swells through the day, bigger across the Sunshine Coast. Light morning winds tending to variable seabreezes (more NE south of the border) should offer some small beachies as long as you don’t expect too much.

This weekend (Feb 3-4)

We’re still looking at strong S swell this weekend as a complex low and front drive gales to strong gales through the lower Tasman. Not much on Sat morning though, just more small clean surf in the 1-2ft range from the E-E/SE. We’ll see light winds tend to light SE-E/SE breezes during the day. Mid period S swell fills in across the North Coast after lunch (mid morning across the MNC) with sets to 3ft showing at S exposed breaks.

The bulk of the swell Sat will be mid period S swell. By Sun we’ll see a much stronger pulse of longer period S swell fill in which should see 4-5ft sets at S facing beaches and some outliers at S facing deepwater adjacent reefs. Winds will be tricky with early W/NW- NW breezes tending E/NE then NE through the day and making it hard to find a spot handling long period S swell. By the a’noon we should see an easing trend in S swell with the latter part of the swell reverting to mid period S swell.

Next week (Feb5 onwards)

S swell leftovers on Mon with early 3ft sets, easing during the day and N’ly winds.

Another deep, but more zonal low passing under Tas later int the weekend brings some S swell wrap Tues, with S facing beaches seeing some 2-3ft sets  Tues although the poorly aligned fetch means extra flukiness.

A trough line lingers across the MNC into Tues with uncertain winds - possibly N’ly or variable depending on how it plays out. Small E swells are on offer.

High degree of uncertainty over the fate of the trough from mid next week. ECMWF suggests the trough will be captured by the leading edge of a new high pressure cell, deepening and leading to a major SE surge up the Eastern Seaboard with moderate amounts of SE swell mid next week and some S/SE swell linked to a trough near New Zealand.

GFS suggests a much more modest SE flow from mid next week with small amounts of SE-S/SE swell mixed with developing E swell from the tradewind band in the Coral and Northern Tasman Seas. That would be more in line with seasonal expectations.

At a minimum we should see workable E tradewind swell options next week from Tues-Fri -likely in the 3ft range at least-with juicier options still on the table as low pressure lingers in the Coral Sea.

Let’s take a look at that on Fri.

Seeya then.