South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Jan 29th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small boost in short range SE-E/SE swell Tues, holding small fun surf Wed with winds tending SE
• Small, grovel surf Wed-Fri with light winds, a few inconsistent sets from the E/SE- should be some clean surf on the beachies
• Small surf Sat AM with a building S swell in the PM across NENSW with light onshore winds
• Stronger S swell Sun with freshening NE winds
• Workable E’ly tradewind swells developing next week with SE winds becoming established
• Still some potential from the tropics, nothing concrete but stay tuned for latest updates

Recap

A fair bit of workable swell over the weekend with Sat seeing mostly NE swell to 2-3ft under light morning winds which shifted S-SE through the day, offering up some small peelers on the Points. Sun saw some S swell in the mix, mostly showing in NENSW with some 2 occ. 3ft sets and continuing E/NE swell to similar sizes. Winds stayed light/variable most of the day under a humid, troughy pattern which has extended into today. Size has ebbed back a notch today with mostly 2ft surf and the occ. bigger set. 

Another humid, overcast morning with some small, workable beachies

This week (Jan 29-Feb 2)

Weak high pressure in the Tasman (1015hPa) is directing a shallow onshore flow across the Eastern Seaboard with troughs associated with the summer monsoon across the north of the country and into the Coral Sea and some frontal activity continuing to sweep below the continent into the lower Tasman Sea. We’ll see developments from both of those areas during this the week and into the weekend- with S swells favouring  temperate NSW and developing E swells favouring sub-tropical areas. A few funky days to get though first.  Read on for details. 

In the short run and the small trough which has been hovering over the border region deepens a little tomorrow and focuses a proximate fetch of E’ly winds across the Far North Coast, moving northwards during the day. That will produce a small increase in local swell up to 2-3ft under mod onshore E’ly tending SE’ly winds. Beachies will be very ortdinary but there should be some small peelers on offer at the Points on appropriate tides.

Similar sized surf and similar winds expected for Wed. There’s still a little model divergence over the trough with EC suggesting a stronger infeed and large surf (3ft or so) while GFS has a weaker infeed and smaller  2 occ. 3ft surf easing during the day. Nothing that will require bringing a different board to the beach so fingers crossed we get the upper end of the spectrum.

Nothing to get too excited about for the rest of the week. The trough moves north and east to be sitting near New Caledonia  by Fri. We’ll be looking at small E’ly swells for Thurs and Fri, in the sub 2ft range in NENSW, slightly bigger north of the border. Winds should be light and offering land breezes for the early so there should be some small fun peaks on offer if you can find a good bank.

There will be some very inconsistent sets Wed-Fri from the E/SE from a tropical depression which drifted in Tongan longitudes late last week and into the weekend but we’re only looking at very, very inconsistent 2ft sets with long waits between. Just something to keep in mind for the beachies if you are wondering where that long-lined set came from.

This weekend (Feb 3-4)

Strong S swell expected this weekend (mostly Sun) as a front with gales to strong gales tied to a complex parent low drifts slowly through the far Southern Tasman. Expect small surf from the E in the 1-2ft range Sat, with some sets showing from the S across NENSW in the a’noon to 3-4ft at S facing beaches, just reaching the border by late a’noon. Winds will be light and variable under current modelling tending to E-NE seabreezes in the a’noon.

Plenty of strong S swell to 3-5ft at S facing beaches (bigger sets at S facing river bars) on Sun but winds will be a problem. Early light NW winds will tend N then NE and freshen during the a’noon- possibly whipping up some local NE windswell. Only a few spots will handle a straight S groundswell with N-NE winds. 

Next week (Feb5 onwards)

Typical summer pattern to start next week with a high in the Tasman directing a NE flow across temperate NSW, more SE-E in the sub-tropics.  We should see some workable E swell into Mon mixed with easing S swell- provisionally in the 3ft range.

E’ly winds off the top of the high will generate workable trade swells for the sub-tropics with some small E/NE swell filtering down from the Northern Tasman during the first half of next week, no real size to it but it should offer up a fun sized surf to 2-3ft under SE winds.

Models are still interested in low pressure development in the tropics with the area between the Solomons and Vanuatu of particular interest. Nothing concrete at this stage as far as surf potential goes but we’ll keep tabs on this area through the week and report back Wed and Fri. Some frontal activity in the lower Tasman looks to supply some small S swell pulses into the medium term, as well.

Check back Wed for the latest.