South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Jan 24th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small mixed bag Wed (mostly E swell) with light winds
• TC now expected to cross N.QLD coast with small, flukey N/NE swells possible Thurs/Fri (more likely on the Sunshine Coast)
• Winds tending N'ly Thurs and really ramping up Fri from the NE
• Small NE swells Sat with NE winds- lighter and more variable south of the border
• Small mixed bag and onshore winds Sun
• Small weak surf for most of next week- possibly some slightly bigger SE swell later in the week- get ready to grovel!

Recap

Mixed swells from the S/SE and E held in the 3ft+ range yesterday, with S’ly winds favouring the Points. There was a window of lighter SW winds inshore early allowing more exposed breaks to be surfed. Both swells are on the wane today, although we still have a few 3ft sets on offer with light winds offering clean conditions across the beachies before winds shifted E through NE and blew out most spots.

Still some swell in the water this morning- mostly from the E

This week (Jan 24-26)

After an extended period of eyes on the tropics there’s not too much to get excited about as the current E swell event winds down. We’re still waiting for TC Kirrily to form (already called by the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre) and when it does it’s expected to take a straight SW-W/SW track into the NQ coast, crossing around Townsville tomorrow evening. No swell of any significance is expected from this system south of the border- with only marginal N/NE swells showing at a few spots in QLD (mostly north of K’gari (Fraser Is)). Absent that, with weak high pressure in the Tasman we’ve only got marginal, local wind swells to keep wave zones active this week, and into next. Let’s take a look.

In the short run winds will tend N-NE tomorrow, after a morning of slack winds. Expect a mod flow in SEQLD, fresh and gusty south of Yamba. Small amounts of E swell to 2ft with the change of some steep angled N/NE swell to 2-3ft at a few open beaches, more likely on the Sunshine Coast. 

Strong N-NE winds establish through Fri so backbeaches only unless you can tolerate very choppy surf. SEQLD should see some flukey N/NE swell continue to 2-3ft with NENSW relying on NE windswell to 2ft, building a notch in the a’noon but under strong NE winds.

This weekend (Jan 27-28)

Nothing to get too frothed up about this weekend. A trough line moves north through Sat, bringing a S’ly change to the MNC and some lighter variable tending NW-W/NW winds to the Tweed-Byron region, possibly creeping into the Gold Coast in the later a’noon. Not much swell to work with through- just some minor NE windswell to 1-2ft. 

A light general onshore flow extends into Sun, at light paces as the trough washes out and stalls around the border. Winds should tend NE north of Moreton and light SE-E south of the border.  Not much swell to work with unfortunately. Just some small leftover NE swell offering up a few 1-2ft sets easing during the day and a mix of small S swell and small, weak E/SE windswell to 2ft at best. 

Next week (Jan 29 onwards)

High pressure in the Tasman to start next week with a typical summer SE flow along the f/cast region. Not much strength to it under current modelling so not much surf to look forwards too.

Likely the first half of the week will be a real grovel with SE windswell less than 2ft, as an optimistic scenario.

An off axis fetch adjacent to New Zealand that we mentioned on Mon now looks weaker, although EC is still suggesting a moderate windfield with a stronger fetch all the west coast of the North Island, which may supply some workable S/SE-SE swell later Wed into Thurs.

 Under GFS scenario it would be marginal less than 2ft during this period.

That fetch may reinvigorate later next week after the passage of a front under some modelled scenarios, offering more small S-SE swell into late next week and the weekend although winds look to tend N’ly by late next week.

Probably best to keep expectations pegged very low for next week- we’ve definitely got a few small, weak days to get through which may extend into the medium term.
Let’s see how it look on Fri.