Plenty of fun waves in the short term with solid swells becoming more likely from mid next week as TC wanders in Coral Sea

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Jan 19th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Small S swell and pulsey E swell combo this weekend with light winds tending SE Sat
  • Bigger E swell Sun with early light winds tending N-NE during the day
  • Pulsey E swell continues into Mon/Tues with light winds Mon AM before a stiff S’ly change
  • Spike in S swell later Mon (on the MNC) Tues elsewhere with S-SE winds, easing through Tues
  • Potential tropical cyclone in Coral Sea next week (TC Kirrily), uncertain surf potential at this early stage (low confidence in specifics) but big swells likely- check back Mon for latest revisions

Recap

Small, pulsey E swells have maintained fun surf across the region, although a subtle downwards trend was observed in some localities. Yesterday was in the 2-3ft range with light morning winds tending NE in the a’noon. Today has dropped a notch with mostly 2ft sets (a few bigger ones in NENSW) and a light/variable flow in NENSW as a trough tickled the region, more NW-N north of the border, although variable winds are expected to become widespread north of the border, with a light SE-E flow south of the Tweed-Byron region.

Some good waves around away from the NE breeze

This weekend (Jan 20-21)

Not much change to the weekend f/cast. A compact low is tracking SE away from Tasmania with a nice slingshot fetch in the process of entering the Tasman adjacent to the Apple Isle. A retrograding fetch in the South Pacific is currently active and expected to send some fun surf our way over the weekend and into early next week.

Small mixed bag for Sat, with small S swells in NENSW to 2 occ. 3ft at S facing beaches (tiny in QLD) and small E swell which will perk up a notch in the a’noon as the next pulse of E swell makes landfall likely after lunch and throw down some 2-3ft sets. Winds look OK- SW-S early tending mod S/SE across most of the region (lighter on the Sunshine Coast) before laying down to light/variable seabreezes in the a’noon.

Sunday sees a similar mixed bag with S swell to 2-3ft in NENSW- not offering much in SEQLD. We will see a stronger E swell signal in the 3-4ft range (poss some bigger sets on the Gold Coast swell magnets like Outside Snapper and the break walls). Get in early for variable land breezes before winds tend N’ly to NE’ly in the a’noon.

Next week (Jan 22 onwards)

The new high moving in from below the Island continent and an angled trough now looks like providing a much stronger S’ly flow into early next week, with the fetch extending along the South Coast into the lower Tasman. A S’ly change from this system looks to arrive across the North Coast Mon morning, reaching the border around lunchtime. Clean E/NE swell to 3-4ft will be on offer before the change with clean surf on the Points after the change.

 As modelled we’re on track for a fast rising spike in S swell through late Mon (on the MNC) into Tues- likely into the  3-5ft range- under fresh S’ly to S/SE’ly winds.  The firm high pressure ridge will hold S-S/SE tending SE winds at moderate/fresh strength so you’ll need to seek shelter for clean conditions.

Looking into mid week and all eyes on the Coral Sea where a tropical cyclone is expected to be slow moving. Uncertainty over track remains high with GFS favouring a slide down the sub-tropical ridge to the SE while EC is favouring a coastal crossing on the NQLD coast. It’s highly likely under current modelling we will see some level of strong swell from the E/NE from mid next week. The range of outcomes remains very large however with size ranges from 4-6ft right up to 8-10ft or bigger still on the table depending on the cyclone strength, position and speed and direction of movement. Pencil in a few solid days on the Points Thurs-Sat and keep tabs on the comments over the weekend as we update with real-time data.

Low confidence of course due to the unpredictable nature of cyclones so expect revisions on Mon- possibly major.

Until then, have a great weekend!

Comments

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Saturday, 20 Jan 2024 at 6:42am

Nothing to see here folks. Move on. :(

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Saturday, 20 Jan 2024 at 6:58am

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.5S 154.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 157.0E, APPROXIMATELY 675 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 190344Z ATMS 88.2GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED, CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FORMATIVE
BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT 90P IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE
TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 90P WILL TRACK SLOWLY
SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT GRADUALLY DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 20 Jan 2024 at 7:27am

So many complex scenarios unfolding in the model guidance. I'm also a little concerned about the flooding potential from this cyclone if it crosses the coast (up north) and then drifts south as a rain depression (let alone the outlier possibilities of a hybrid redevelopment off SE Qld).

bananaman's picture
bananaman's picture
bananaman Saturday, 20 Jan 2024 at 8:10am

I hate it when they come around the back. PTSD jitters , start praying for Lismore ?

Greenballs's picture
Greenballs's picture
Greenballs Sunday, 21 Jan 2024 at 4:32am

Yes agree my dad comes from Lismore (many years ago) but worried about same. It's the tropics!

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 Saturday, 20 Jan 2024 at 8:12am

Haha! Named after Peter Dudspuds allegedly wayward wife? I bet he’ll call for a boycott on the BOM now too

eat-your-vegies's picture
eat-your-vegies's picture
eat-your-vegies Saturday, 20 Jan 2024 at 8:42am

Debbie on steroids

mick-free's picture
mick-free's picture
mick-free Saturday, 20 Jan 2024 at 9:00am

GFS has now fallen inline with all the other models crossing near Townsville.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Saturday, 20 Jan 2024 at 11:22am

Small and clean from the S here this morning, then as the tide started to drain it fully pumped for a 30-40 min period with E swell sets to 3-4ft.

Then it stopped.
Nothing.

Anyone else get that pulse?

adsi's picture
adsi's picture
adsi Saturday, 20 Jan 2024 at 11:57am

Yeh, dropped out just as I went out. Then half a later 2 bombs rolled in, then SE came up instantly and swell dropped out.

SDW's picture
SDW's picture
SDW Saturday, 20 Jan 2024 at 2:44pm

There were a couple of nice sets at around 9 or so up here on the SC. Some solid 3 footers.

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Saturday, 20 Jan 2024 at 11:32am

Definitely bigger sets and longer lined than yesterday.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Saturday, 20 Jan 2024 at 12:00pm

This is the technical report done by the BOM on TC Debbie if anyone is interested.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/database/Tropical-Cyclone-Debbie-T...

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 Saturday, 20 Jan 2024 at 12:48pm

Nothing on the southern GC. Close to flat on the low tide

Meris's picture
Meris's picture
Meris Saturday, 20 Jan 2024 at 1:09pm

Afternoon FR,
Thanks for posting the debbie analysis, are you seeing similarity's with the current system?
I understand its a ways off and many variables .
Thanks.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Saturday, 20 Jan 2024 at 2:15pm

Deffo bigger now, from E and S.

Anything showing now SL67?

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 Sunday, 21 Jan 2024 at 8:07am

Bumped up by late arvo. Very east and reverse sweep running back up the point. Pretty fun actually

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 20 Jan 2024 at 3:10pm

Steady 3ft sets on the Tweed. Direction straight E, maybe E/NE.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Saturday, 20 Jan 2024 at 4:41pm

Nice mixed bag here this arvo- 3ft from the S and about the same or slightly bigger from the E.

Wind dropped right back after a rain squall.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Sunday, 21 Jan 2024 at 6:39am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.2S
157.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 155.5E, APPROXIMATELY 355 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY AND A 191731Z SSMIS
91GHZ DEPICT A FORMATIVE SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED
LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMET,
WITH WEAK POLEWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, WARM SSTS (30 C), OFFSET BY HIGH
VWS (20-30 KT). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90P WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AND FURTHER DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-
36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 33
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

Fresh55's picture
Fresh55's picture
Fresh55 Sunday, 21 Jan 2024 at 6:48am

I said it 7 days ago.

Another land destroying, non wave producing cyclone.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Sunday, 21 Jan 2024 at 8:10am

Nice muscle up this morning.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 21 Jan 2024 at 8:58am

Pumping 3-4ft beachies, blue water, sunshine, light winds. Happy days.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Sunday, 21 Jan 2024 at 9:30am

Punching above its weight this morning for sure.

And how Fcking warm is the water!!

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Sunday, 21 Jan 2024 at 10:18am

Almost too warm here. But yeah bigger, longer period 3ft+ odd bigger one, plenty of great waves.

durutti's picture
durutti's picture
durutti Sunday, 21 Jan 2024 at 11:07am

I was sweating in the water by 6

Benda's picture
Benda's picture
Benda Sunday, 21 Jan 2024 at 11:15am

latest models showing plenty of rain seq/nnsw could be decent flooding if they stay on course. Hopefully not.So much for dry summer. Tonga volcano still playing a part maybe? so ive been informed

tip-top1's picture
tip-top1's picture
tip-top1 Sunday, 21 Jan 2024 at 12:56pm

really nice waves this morning on the sc, there was an hour or so of power around 730-8 till 9 where the crowd seemed to disperse , good times !!!

Tgoose's picture
Tgoose's picture
Tgoose Sunday, 21 Jan 2024 at 1:45pm

Had a normally very crowded SC beachy with only one other guy out for 30 mins this morning, just when the tide turned and it got good. Pretty epic after driving up from Brisbane

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 Sunday, 21 Jan 2024 at 6:12pm

Great morning on the most easterly point. Hectic crowds but plenty of waves, good 3'+ on the sets, super clean till the NE kicked mid-morning

pjbyron's picture
pjbyron's picture
pjbyron Sunday, 21 Jan 2024 at 6:24pm

Way to many peeps for me... surfed out front 15kms north, good chunky size but rubbish banks. Not sure what's worst, 150 people fighting over waves or 2-3 people out surfing straight-handers. Still nice to get out in warm water and a visit from a pod of dolphins.

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 Monday, 22 Jan 2024 at 8:08am

It's a struggle for banks everywhere! Looked at the Surfers North cam this morning to see a clean 3" set shut down across the whole screen, no corners on it at all

Spearman's picture
Spearman's picture
Spearman Sunday, 21 Jan 2024 at 8:38pm

Great waves this morning, NNSW strong pulse around 7.30 ish and then backed off but still pumping.

NoUseforaName's picture
NoUseforaName's picture
NoUseforaName Sunday, 21 Jan 2024 at 10:33pm

Was definitely packing a punch this morning on the sc. Had my board ripped from my hands twice early on trying to duck dive sets. Mid size ones were more user friendly. Hectic paddle back out sometimes.

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Monday, 22 Jan 2024 at 9:05am

Bigger again this morning, way more energy in it, some real decent push before high tide and half the crowd, happy days.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Monday, 22 Jan 2024 at 9:07am

Nice one Sprout.
Definitely some sets here this morning but it looks a smidge smaller- NE winds aren't helping.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Monday, 22 Jan 2024 at 9:40am

31 degrees at 0930!

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Monday, 22 Jan 2024 at 9:45am

Humidity and heat this summer has been oppressive.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 22 Jan 2024 at 9:49am

Couldn't find anything this morning, though there wasn't any shortage of size. High tide and N/NW winds didn't help much. Still some easy 4ft sets, strong groundswell lines.

Plasticspastic's picture
Plasticspastic's picture
Plasticspastic Monday, 22 Jan 2024 at 10:16am

yeah Ben, same, after an epic session yesterday on the tweed, could not replicate, checked a few spots, but bigger, straighter and more north

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Monday, 22 Jan 2024 at 10:33am

Ah, thats interesting, definitely a notch smaller here today. Still some sets but not as pumping as yesterday morning.
S'ly change now between Evans and Ballina.