South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 15th Nov)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• N’lies Thurs with a late S’ly change 
• Long period S swells peak later Wed/Thurs, favouring NENSW for size
• Increase in short range S swell for Fri, lingering into Sat
• Some swell now expected from TC Mal as it moves across the swell window- Sat and Sun will see some sets under light winds
• Another long period S swell pulse Mon, easing Tues with E’ly winds
• Blocking pattern next week with E’ly winds and developing E’ly swells

Recap

Fun tradewind swell to 2-3ft yesterday with light winds which tended fresh N’ly through the day. N’ly winds again today with easing trade swell to 2ft and some small S swell to 2-3ft at S facing beaches in NENSW. 

Some small S swell on the MNC under a light N'ly flow

This week (Nov 15-17)

A troughy pattern spawns a compact Tasman low in the short term with S’ly groundswell making it’s way up the Tasman Pipe. Another deep low is expected to bomb under the continent and send more long period groundswell our way late this weekend under a continuing unstable, trough pattern. 

In the short run we’ll see N’ly winds tomorrow, light inshore early. S’ly groundswell from the trailing fetch (shorter period swell trains than today) supplies some 4ft sets at S facing beaches in NENSW with some developing NE windswell to 2ft through the day. A northwards moving trough brings a SW-S change to the MNC in there a’noon, reaching Tweed-Byron late in the day.

S’ly winds then freshen Fri as a front pushes through and a small low off the MNC deepens and moves offshore. There’ll be some building short range S swell up into 3-4ft range at S facing beaches in the a’noon but low quality. Smaller, cleaner waves in protected corners and Bays. 

This weekend (Nov 18-19)

We’re still expecting SW morning winds tending S’ly then SE-E/SE’ly on Sat as a small high centre moves offshore from the Central NSW Coast and the low off the MNC moves into the Tasman. An off-axis fetch in the Tasman and the remnants of Fridays short range S swell will see a small blend of S swells to 2-3ft at S facing beaches,  biggest and best early before an easing trend sets in. TC Mal enters the swell window later today and we may see some small E/NE swell Sat. The TC moves at angles to the swell window which is not good for swell production but there are winds to 60kts as it enters the swell window o/night so we can expect some bigger 4ft sets with rogue 5ft sets a real possibility. 

That swell will be easing from Sun morning with a few sets to 3-4ft quickly easing through the day and some small SE swell to 2-3ft.

Sunday sees another long period S swell pulse possibly just reaching the MNC late in the day. That will see sets to 3-5ft at S facing beaches.

Winds look iffy for Sun with a straight E’ly flow expected into a trough.

Next week (Nov 20 onwards)

A mix of swells Mon, with large easing sets from the S to 4-5ft at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft at S swell magnets in SEQLD.  We’ll see building E swells to 3ft as winds feed into a trough with the trough bringing a S’ly change.

That trough may form a small low with some developing SE swell possible through Tues into mid/late next week. We’ll see how models look on Fri but this continuing troughy outlook for the Tasman Sea is likely to maintain an active period for surf, even if onshore winds become a little persistent.

Check back Fri and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.