South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 23rd Oct)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Hard-core N’lies Tues/Wed with NE windswell for the keen
• Strong S’ly change Thurs (SW early)
• TC Lola in South Pacific not a swell source (fades out as it enters Coral Sea)
• Late kick in short range S/SE swell Thurs, much sizier Fri with fresh S-S/SE winds
• Fresh S/SE winds continue Fri with strong S’ly groundswell filling in and extending over the weekend
• Surface low expected to form off North Coast Fri generating large SE-E/SE swells (Points only) on the weekend and early next week
• Winds slowly easing as low moves away from Coast early next week- possible window for big, clean waves Mon AM
• Slow easing in size Tues/Wed
• More action on the radar later next week- check back for latest updates Wed

Recap

Fun beachbreaks for Sat morning as E/SE swell slowly faded out with slack winds and 2-3ft of swell. NE winds kicked up in the a’noon and blew out all but the best backbeaches. N’lies blew strongly Sun with only a few backbeaches having a rideable wave. A trough has moved northwards today and stalled out as it just tickled the Ballina region. S-SE winds to the south of the trough and (strong) N’lies to the north of the trough was the result with a NE windswell to 2-3ft on offer. 

Small windswell blend on the MNC with slack winds around a stalled trough

This week (Oct 23-27)

We’ve got an October surprise with the formation of TC Lola between Vanuatu and the Solomon Islands. Lola, under current track assessments will scythe through Vanuatu and cross Grand Terre (New Caledonia), fizzling out as a TC as it enters the Coral Sea. Thus, we won’t look towards Lola as a swell source. Plenty of other swell sources on the radar though this week with a strong frontal intrusion into the Tasman mid week, backed up by a monster high moving in from the Bight which will generate plenty of sizey S swell. Late in the week, a combination of inland upper trough and a long angled trough extending from TC Lola remnants is expected to form a powerful surface low off the sub-tropical NSW Coast (likely between Lord Howe and Norfolk Is). As modelled, gales will produce a large E’ly quadrant swell event, with maximum size in Northern NSW, grading smaller into temperate NSW. A secondary October surprise that looks to be a major swell producer. Other swell sources are also on the radar. 

In the short run and we can pretty much write off prospects for Mon-Wed with hard-core N’lies on offer. If you have a bolt-hole that offers up rideable NE windswell with winds between 20-30kts then there’ll be 2-3ft of windswell on offer. Otherwise, seek shelter and wait it out. Better days ahead. 

We’ll see a major change Thurs as a strong front pushes into the Tasman, and a major S-SE surge propagates northwards along the coast. O/night for the MNC, wee hours for the North Coast and reaching the border for office hrs. That surge will encounter a deepening trough line leasing to strong S/SE winds in a proximate fetch and a fast rising local S-S/SE swell into the a’noon. Likely reaching 4-5ft by close of play. 

We’ll see a much more significant increase in swell Fri. Winds first though. The monster high will brings a powerful S-SE surge right up the Eastern seaboard so expect fresh/strong S/SE winds for most of Thurs and Fri. By late Fri the deepening trough off the sub-tropical north coast is expected to form a surface low, with strong winds to gales adjacent to and aimed up at sub-tropical targets. Thus we’ll expect a building combination of strong S’ly swells and more local SE swells from the developing surface low. Size up into the 8-10ft range in NENSW looks likely, 6-8ft in SEQLD. Points will grade smaller as you head into the more inner sections. 

This weekend (Oct 28-29)

Dynamic looking weekend ahead. By Sat AM a broad surface low with a broad fetch of gales is expected due E of Yamba. Typically, systems of this size and strength bring very large swells to NENSW, slightly smaller into SEQLD. Size in the 8-10ft range would be a reasonable estimate under current modelling, with only a few spots handling the size and strong S-S/SE winds. Mixed in with this will be strong, long period S-S/SE swell to 5-6ft. 

Large to XL surf continues into Sun. We may see a slight easing of winds as the low moves away but the size of the swell (8-10ft in NENSW, 6ft+ in SEQLD) will again restrict surfing to a very select group of sheltered Points. 

Next week (Oct 30 onwards)

Size holds or dips a notch into Mon morning but at least 8ft sets in NENSW are likely from the E/SE, with good odds for a morning land breeze under easing pressure gradients, with lighter SE breezes in the a’noon. Mon looks the best bet for a few select locations handling the size.

Plenty of size extends into Tues and Wed, under a slow easing trend with N’ly winds likely Tues and a S’ly change possible Wed. We’ll revise those winds and the downslope of the swell event Wed.

Plenty of activity at a minimum as we head out of October into November, with a much more active Spring than Winter already in the books. 

Check back Wed for the latest update.