South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 18th Oct)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Better quality pulse of SE swell Thurs, holding into Fri with light morning winds tending SE 
• Small surf Sat with light morning winds, tending NE
• Strong N’lies Sun with some NE windswell
• Small NE windswell Mon 
• More S swell Tues next week (not much in SEQLD)
• Looking at tropical developments (possible TC) near Solomons- not a likely swell source but stay tuned for updates

Recap

Plenty of robust, windy S swell built yesterday as a low pressure system moved NE into the Tasman. Not a great deal of quality but size in the 4-5ft range in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD with just a brief window of semi-clean conditions under an offshore flow before fresh S’ly winds kicked up. That initial surge of S swell has backed down into today across NENSW with size to 4ft across the region and mostly choppy conditions under S/SE-SE winds. SEQLD S facing beaches are holding more size in the 3-4ft range due to the slightly better swell direction (S/SE) with tiny peelers on the Points.

Plenty of S-S/SE swell getting into the border region this morning, still tiny on the Points

This week (Oct 18-20)

The synoptic set-up looks quite unseasonal at the moment with a 1031 hPa high drifting over NSW and a 1007 hPa low slow moving in the Tasman west of the North Island. Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes show broad fetch of mostly strong S-S/SE winds with some embedded low end gales reasonably well aimed for East coast swell production. 

In the short run we’ll see winds ease a notch overnight and tend to land breezes in the morning as high pressure drifts NE into the Tasman and pressure gradients slacken. Expect light SW winds early across most of NENSW and the Gold Coast with the Sunshine Coast more likely to be S-SE early. Winds will tend S-SE through the day across the region. SE swell generated by the Tasman low fills in o/night and looks good for quality 3-5ft surf. Models are also picking up traces of long period S swell from a deep polar fetch, which may add some 2ft sets to reliable S swell magnets in NENSW, likely not noticeable amongst dominant SE swell.

Easing winds continue into Fri with light land breezes throughout, tending to light SE-E/SE breezes during the day (more E-E/NE on the MNC). Thursday’s pulse of SE swell holds a few 3-4ft sets early before easing down through the day but we should still see 2-3ft surf hold through the a’noon under light winds. 

This weekend (Oct 21-22)

Not much change for weekend outlook- still expecting light winds early tending to freshening N-N/NE flow for Sat. The Tasman low lingers as it slowly weakens which should see a small, fading SE swell into Sat, in the 2-3ft range early. Through the a’noon a proximate fetch of N/NE winds will push NE windswell up into the 2-3ft range under fresh winds from the same direction.

Not much on offer for Sun as the nor-easters push up to nuclear strength. Small leftovers in the morning with a clean wave to 2ft at backbeaches. Through the a’noon a proximate fetch of N/NE winds will push NE windswell up into the 2-3ft range under fresh winds from the same direction.

Next week (Oct 23 onwards)

A vigorous but compact low moves East of Tasmania Mon, while a trough line advancing up the NSW Coast brings a S’ly change to the region, likely into Coffs after lunch, and the border by nightfall. Expect N’ly winds before the trough arrives. Small amounts of NE windswell are expected Mon from a lingering N’ly fetch extending up towards Fraser Island.

The fetch from the low is short lived and mobile and mostly too far tucked in behind the swell shadow of the Hunter curve but small swells from the S should peak Tues at S facing beaches in NENSW in the 3ft range, barely showing in SEQLD. Winds look iffy around a stalled trough line, but should be light in the morning before N’lies kick up.

Further ahead and we may see another round of NE windswell later Wed into Thurs as another frontal system approaches and tightens pressure gradients. Likely in the 3ft range on the MNC, grading smaller into SEQLD.

Models are in broad agreement on a broad frontal system mid next week which looks to supply a moderate S’ly swell late next week, Friday most likely. Winds look tricky to call at the moment with another trough possible bringing a S’ly change or stalling near Coffs and winds remaining N’ly.

As we noted on Mon, some early season tropical activity up near the Solomon Islands now looks set to deepen into a tropical depression, possibly even a very early season cyclone. Unlikely we will see any swell from it - EC has the system just trickling into the swell window as it peters out, while GFS runs it quickly off to the SE between New Caledonia and Vanuatu into the “graveyard”. 

We’ll have another look at it on Fri, but it’s far more likely we’ll see swell sources from more usual suspects for this time of year: NE wind swells and S’ly swells from frontal progressions passing through the Tasman.

Seeya Fri.