South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 13th Oct)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fun S'ly swell for Northern NSW Sat, easing Sun (not much size in SE Qld), light winds early both days
• More S'ly swell for Northern NSW Mon (not much size in SE Qld) with freshening N’lies
• Solid surf next week as low forms in Tasman- building Tue, solid Wed/Thurs with fresh S-SE winds, easing 
• Fun leftovers Fri
• Small surf next weekend

Recap

Long period S swells saw surf in the 3-4ft range yesterday at S exposed breaks in NENSW, barely showing in SEQLD apart from a few 2ft sets. Smooth conditions early under light winds before N’lies really kicked up, with a minor amount of NE windswell by close of play. This morning is mostly NE windswell to 2ft with a few S swell sets in NENSW. N’ly winds across most of the region with a S’ly change into Coffs by 8am, reaching Byron-Ballina by midday and expected to tickle the QLD border later this a’noon. 

Pretty ordinary on the border

More shape south of the border

This weekend (Oct 14 - 15)

Very tricky winds over the weekend, especially Sat as a trough lingers off Cape Moreton, we’ll detail them in a second. Todays frontal passage with strong SW winds out of Bass Strait and a fetch moving NE past Tasmania looks good for a S swell tomorrow with a bit of size to it across NENSW S facing beaches. Mid period directional S swell in the 3-4ft range should be in the water tomorrow morning, smaller 2-3ft at SEQLD S facing beaches. 

OK, winds. 

Mostly SW on the Sunshine Coast and south of Yamba for the morning, tending variable then NE in the a’noon.

Light S-SE across the North Coast and Gold Coast (SW inshore early) before tending N/NE in the a’noon.

Sunday’s winds still look iffy as a trough lingers about the region. Light and variable across the Gold Coast-Tweed, light SW across the MNC tending S’ly. Light NW on the Sunshine Coast, with N’lies kicking in across the region through the a’noon. S’ly swells will remain the major source with Saturdays peak coming down to 3ft (2ft in SEQLD) before another pulse fills in the late a’noon in NENSW, pushing back up to 3-4ft at S facing beaches. 

Next week (Oct 16 onwards)

We’ve got more clarity on the situation next week now as a lingering trough line from the NSW South Coast down to Gippsland is expected to deepen in response to a front and form a surface low in the Tasman Sea, likely later Mon.

Monday is looking windy for the most part as the deepening trough brings a strengthening N’ly wind flow to the region. The strong front passing under Tasmania late Sat into Sun should see longer period S swell to 3-4ft at select S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD. NE windswell is likely to kick up to 2-3ft in the a’noon. By close of play, we’re likely to see strong S’ly winds kick in across the MNC, reaching the North Coast later that night and SEQLD in the wee hours (2am).

EC continues to be more bullish than GFS, with stronger and slower moving gales which would see fast rising S swell Tues, with plenty of size by the a’noon in the 6ft+ range under fresh S’lies. GFS has slightly less size but similar winds. We’ll see how it looks over the weekend below the line. 

Low sitting in Tasman brings plenty of swell next week

The system may re-intensify further north in the Tasman with a fetch better aimed at the sub-tropics so we’ll expect solid surf in the sub-tropics  Wed, with swells tending more S/SE as the low moves NE. 

Winds ease back from the S-SE Wed/Thurs with size likely in the 6-8ft range Wed, smaller 4-5ft Thurs. Those figures will be revised Mon as we see how the storm behaves. It’s possible we may see those figures reversed if the system initially eases, then re-intensifies.

Easing swells into late next week and the weekend. There are some signs of instability off the South Coast/Gippsland region next weekend but it’s way too far out to have any confidence in any kind of swell generating system. Small surf and inshore winds is the far more likely outcome.

Check back Mon for the latest and have a great weekend!