South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 11th Oct)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• S'ly swell Wed PM (MNC), easing Thurs across all regions (not much size in SE Qld) with freshening N’lies
• Fun S'ly swell for Northern NSW Sat, easing Sun (not much size in SE Qld), light winds early both days
• More S'ly swell for Northern NSW Mon (not much size in SE Qld)
• Chance for solid surf next week if low forms in Tasman- still low confidence so check back Fri for updates

Recap

S swells yesterday hung in the 3-4ft range at S exposed breaks in NENSW most of the day (smaller2ft in SEQLD). Morning offshore winds were reasonably widespread with clean conditions before winds kicked up from the NE through the day, blowing out most beaches apart from a few S facing backbeaches. Today has seen an easing in size as S swell ebbs with slow sets to 3ft across NENSW S facing beaches, smaller 2ft in SEQLD where some minor E swell padded out wave heights. Light winds early provided clean conditions before E-NE’ly winds kicked in. 

Small and weak on the beachies north of the border but at least it was clean(ish)

This week (Oct 11 - 13)

Moderate strength high pressure (1025 hPa) is drifting NE into the Tasman with a strong polar storm well SW of NZ exiting the swell window. That should see a settled short term before another complex trough and frontal system pushes north along the coast tomorrow with a stiff SW-S change. N'ly winds into the weekend under a very mobile, troughy pattern with some potential next week for a surface low to form in one of the trough lines. Details below.

In the short run and the storm passing off the ice shelf delivers a pulse of of long period S swell which should have arrived overnight. 3ft sets are expected at S facing beaches in NENSW - possibly a few bigger one at some of the better swell magnets. Not much gets into SEQLD, just a few 2ft sets at magnets and northern corners. Hard to get excited about with a freshening N-NE flow expected so get in early for what will be a brief window of cleaner conditions (if any).

A trough will be working it’s way north during Fri bringing a S’ly change. Likely reaching Coffs early morning, Byron-Ballina just after lunch before just making the border close of play as it stalls out. NW winds before the change with a mix of S swells and minor NE windswell. S facing beaches in NENSW should see a few 3ft sets, with not much at all in SEQLD, 2ft at best.

This weekend (Oct 14 - 15)

The stalled trough looks to hover around Cape Moreton, with a light SW flow on the Sunshine Coast tending to light/variable S-SE winds on the Gold Coast and Northern NSW. Not much strength in it either way so conditions should be workable with mid period S swell in the water generated by the front passing SE of Tasmania. Nothing too sizey expected- 3-4ft at NENSW S swell magnets, grading smaller 2ft into SEQLD. Light winds should offer up plenty of workable options if you can find somewhere exposed to S swell and aren’t too fussy. 

Winds still look a bit tricky for Sunday as a trough lingers about but there’s reasonable confidence we’ll see light winds for the morning before NE winds kick up again in the a’noon (it is October). We’ll see a morning peak in S swell energy, likely around the same size as Saturdays swell depending on the timing of the front, so 3ft or so in NENSW, smaller 2ft in SEQLD. Again, nothing remarkable but we should see enough energy for  a surf. 

Next week (Oct 16 onwards)

The troughy pattern lingers into Mon with some intriguing possibilities. First up, there will be small S swells in the water Mon morning from the weekend’s frontal activity, likely in the 2-3ft range in NENSW, nothing much in SEQLD. Get in early for the best chance of light winds before N’lies kick up and freshen.

Model divergence is pronounced so we’ll be back for revisions but one major model (EC) is suggesting the development of  surface low in the Tasman early next week, possibly lingering for a few days.

Under this scenario we’d be looking at a steep increase in directional S swell Tues, with some size from the S into Tues before moderate S/SE-SE swells into Wed, possibly Thurs. All under S’ly winds.

GFS has a less enticing offering with the trough lingering about the coast, although focussing SE winds onto the Central NSW coast later Mon and then holding steady with NE’ly winds in the sub-tropics feeding into the trough line into the middle of the week, suggesting small  SE-E swells Wed-Thurs with NE winds finally giving way to a weak SE change Thurs.

Longer term and more frontal activity below the continent later next week suggests more S swell into next weekend.

Lets see how things are shaping up on Fri. Would be great to see a full fledged surface low in the Tasman Sea with S winds and some proper swell but it’s way too early to get any froth going. Especially for mid-October.

Seeya Fri.