South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 3rd May)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small S swell for NENSW Thurs PM, Fri, not much in SEQLD
• Small mixed bag for the weekend with a slight rebuild in E’ly swell Sun
• Strong S swells expected from Tues next week, sizey in NENSW, smaller in SEQLD
• Quality but inconsistent  E swell expected to rebuild early next week and persist through most of next week

Recap

Great quality E swell slowly easing has been the story with mostly 3ft surf ( a few 4ft sets) yesterday under offshore winds for most of the day. Today has seen easing surf but with a few quality 2-3ft sets still in the water and offshore winds. All in all, a great mop up day for the leftover E swell.

Beautiful morning to mop up the last of the E swell

This week (May 3-5)

We’re in between swells at the moment, with weak front having passed into the Tasman and another front and compact low expected to move into the Tasman Sea later today, generating a small S swell event. A much stronger cold outbreak looks poised to spawn a major Tasman Low Sun/Mon with the seasons first serious S swell expected. More details below. 

In the short run the low moves into the Tasman overnight, weakening as it does so. Early W/SW-SW winds will tend S’ly and likely end up light SSE from the mid of the a’noon as pressure gradients ease.

There’ll be a small mix of swell trains in the water, with mostly leftover E/SE swell to 1-2ft and a small amount of S swell building across NENSW, not much more than 2ft, 2-3ft at the most reliable S swell magnets in NENSW through the a’noon.

That should leave some fun S swell in the water for Fri morning with winds tending SW’ly well into the mid morning before tending variable then light/mod SE as a small high cell moves off the Central NSW Coast. Expect sets to 3ft at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller 2ft in SEQLD at S swell magnets. A small amount of residual E swell from the South Pacific sees some inconsistent 2ft sets showing on lower tides. Nothing amazing but enough to get a shortboard up on the plane.

This weekend (May 6 - 7)

Quiet weekend expected before all hell breaks loose next week with a major low expected in the Tasman Sea.

Winds look good for Sat morning with a nice offshore flow expected as a front and trough linger off the NE coast of Tasmania. Winds should tend light SE-NE through the day. Surf-wise we’re looking at small levels of leftover SSE swell and a minor amount of E’ly swell from a tradewind fetch in the South Pacific. All told around 2ft with the very occasional bigger set.

Similar size Sunday with a an increase in E’ly swell, but with long waits for sets and plenty of slow patches. Initially we should see light SW winds through Sun morning and into lunch-time. Through the a’noon we’re expecting the small low between Tasmania and the Gipplsand Coast to deepen quite rapidly and in response pre-frontal N’ly winds should start to freshen along the sub-tropical coast. It’s unlikely we’ll see any swell increase Sun across NENSW as the low stays tucked in behind the swell shadow of Cape Howe although we may see some impressive wind readings at Gabo Island! We’ll fine-tune that Fri if we need to. 

Next week (May 8 onwards)

We’ve got two major swell sources ahead for the region next week- the classic “combo” swell from the East and South.

Dealing with the E first. The long tradewind fetch in the South Pacific strengthens later this week with a possible small retrograding low embedded near the North Island. Travel distance will shave off size but the length of the fetch is still expected to generate quality E swell sets in the 4ft range for the region. This swell will start showing Sun/Mon and hold a pulsey, inconsistent signal with 4ft sets Tues-Thurs with a slow easing into Fri.

Monday will be an interesting day. We may see a very rapid rise in S swell as the deep low moves NE into the Tasman although the timing is still to be determined. Tuesday is more likely across the region. Strong gales are expected to develop between the low and an approaching high through Mon. Initially in a thin strip proximate to the Illawarra-Hunter coastline. With the swell shadowed by the curve in the coast-line there (Hunter curve) w’ll need to wait for the low to move out further to see S swell.

By Tues strong gales exist in a thick fetch aimed right at Central NSW. Typically, full blown fetches like these in such close proximity to the coast generate large surf in the 10-12ft range in Sydney, grading smaller up the coast with NENSW S exposed breaks seeing 6-8ft surf develop Tues under W/SW-SW winds. SEQLD is likely to see a more W/NW flow, possibly even with pockets of N’ly wind and S swell in the 3-5ft range.

From mid next week there’s considerable model divergence with EC suggesting the low moves away to the NE with a slow easing in size and winds from Wed into Thurs- although maintaining heaps of size.

GFS has a slower moving system, hovering off the Hunter Coast through Wed and dissipating through Thurs/Fri. That suggests another day of XL surf Wed with strong winds and a slow roll-off in size with back-up energy from the remnants of the low as it drifts through the Tasman.

Anyway we slice it odds are now pretty good for a major S swell event early next week with E swell playing a wonderful supporting role (major role on the Sunshine Coast!). 

Check back Fri and we’ll sharpen the focus on this event as well as take a last look at the weekend.