South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 1st May)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Mostly offshore winds Mon-Wed (light a’noon seabreezes)
• E'ly swells easing gradually from Mon/Tues, becoming small, clean and fun Wed
• Small S swell for NENSW Thurs PM, Fri, not much in SEQLD
• Small mixed bag for the weekend with a slight rebuild in E’ly swell
• S swells expected next week, possibly sizey in NENSW
• Fun E swell expected to rebuild early next week

Recap

Pretty epic weekend of surf with pumping E swell and generally favourable winds. Sat was in the 4-6ft range with light winds, which tended SE-NE in the a’noon, although still light enough to surf through. Sun muscled up further with solid 6ft+ sets and a mostly offshore flow (NW for a time in SEQLD). Today is still solid with 4-5ft sets and straight offshore winds. A great start to the magic month of May and a fitting finale to a great run of swell.

Solid in NENSW

Pumping beachies on the Sunshine Coast if you could get out to them

One more to farewell a great run of E'ly swell

This week (May 1-5)

Low pressure troughs off the NSW and SEQLD coast combined with high pressure over the interior and frontal activity to the south are driving a W’ly flow across the Eastern Seaboard, perfectly timed for a quality E’ly groundswell. We’ll see a slow easing of this swell event over the coming days with all day offshores expected. We should see some small S swell later in the week as a minor front/low pushes into the Tasman before a more substantial S swell event develops late in the weekend/early next week on the back of a cold outbreak and potential deep low in the Tasman.

In the short run and  great surf continues into tomorrow with 3-4ft surf early slowly easing down through the a’noon under morning offshore winds tending light/variable in the a’noon.

Wed will see a more pronounced easing trend with early 3ft surf (sets very inconsistent), dropping back to 2-3ft during the day (more 2ft than 3ft). Again, winds should remain offshore all morning- tending to variable seabreezes in the a’noon. We’ll see a subtle shift in swell direction through Tues/Wed from E through E/SE to SE as the low tracks through the Tasman.

A low pressure system pushes E of Tasmania Thurs driving winds more W/SW-SW, then light SSE’ly through the day. Thurs morning should be the low point of the week with just minor levels of leftover E swell in the 2ft range or less. We’ll see a bump in size from new S swell likely from mid-late a’noon -from both gales out of Bass Strait late Wed and SW winds in the Tasman. No great size is expected, 2-3ft at S facing beaches in NENSW, tiny in SEQLD.

Winds should go straight offshore again Fri morning as the low gets whisked away and a weak high moves off the Central NSW Coast bringing weak SE-E breezes through the day. Fun sized S swell in the 2-3ft range at NENSW S facing beaches, smaller 2ft at SEQLD S facing beaches will be on offer. 

This weekend (May 6 - 7)

Looks like a dynamic end to the weekend with a low pressure system forming east of Tasmania on Sun which will brings some new S swell next week.

Sat should be a small mixed bag of easing S swell and a small E swell signal filtering down from a rebuild in the tradwind belt in the South Pacific, with surf in the 2-3ft range. Clean under offshore W to W/SW winds.

Sunday’s surf will depend on the development and positioning of a low off Tasmania. It’s likely to start small, with freshening SW winds as the low winds up. We may see a late kick in new S swell- models are very divergent so confidence is low. Monday looks a better bet. Check back in Wed and we’ll update the outlook.

Next week (May 8 onwards)

South swell and plenty of it next week especially for NENSW, although with so much model divergence we’ll just be sketching in the basic pattern here and fine-tuning size and timing through the week. 

EC suggests a major low in the Tasman Mon, moving NE and generating large S swells along the entire East Coast under fresh SW winds from Mon/Tues. 

GFS suggests a major frontal progression based on a deep parent low located in the Far Southern Tasman next week, with multiple pulses of moderate S swell expected.

We’ll peg size at strong 3-5ft at this early stage in NENSW (smaller 3ft in SEQLD), with upgrades possible (likely). 

There’s also likely to be some moderate E’ly energy in the water from a retrograding tradewind band and potential trough between the North Island and New Caledonia.

Considering the strong S’ly energy in the water, it’s likely to be the minor swell source for NENSW f/cast regions. Likely significant through depending on how it shapes up.

Check back in Wed and we’ll see how this active period is shaping up.