South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 24th Apr)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Lots of swell and lots of wind for this week 
• Great run of surf for the points continues this week
• Rebuild in better quality E’ly groundswell from Fri into next weekend
• Easing surf next week with potential for a S swell late next week

Recap

No real change over the weekend to the regime of SE-E swell with plenty of size (3-4ft) a little bigger in NENSW and winds favouring the Points. There were a couple of brief windows of lighter S’ly winds early and late but not enough for beachies to clean up. Today has seen winds tend more SE-E/SE with size holding in the 3-4ft range. Another day on the Points, in short.

Lock in B- crowded Points for a thousand, thanks Eddie

This week (Apr 24-28)

As expected a monster high (1035hPa) is currently drifting into the Tasman Sea, roughly equidistant between the South Coast and Tasmania. A very firm ridge is established from the Mid North Coast right up to tropical QLD, with weaker pressure gradients along the temperate NSW coast. That high is expected to occupy the Tasman for most of the week - sitting just high enough to allow traces of S swell into the Tasman. The major swell generator will a broad fetch of SE-E/SE winds in the Coral Sea/Northern Tasman which will be enhanced later in the week as a broad tropical low tracks southwards from New Caledonia and into the wide open Eastern swell window. This will keep the sub-tropical Points pumping with a rebuild in quality E’ly groundswell later this week and into the weekend.

In the short run and the high cell moves NE just off the Central NSW Coast, maintaining a firm ridge along the sub-topical coast which will hold mod/fresh SE winds right through until Thurs, with winds tending more E/SE from Ballina southward. 

Basically the forecast is very straightforwards- you’ll need a sheltered North facing Point for wind protection which will reduce the number of surfable spots to a handful unless you can really handle some windy, ragged beachbreaks.

There’ll be no shortage of swell. Surf-wise the strong high will maintain a broad fetch of strong SE-E/SE winds across the Southern Coral Sea and typically these fetches produce pulsey surf in the 3-5ft range, with size grading smaller into more protected Points.

Find the best tide and go for it. 

By Thurs we should see a slight easing in the local wind flow, possibly allowing a morning land breeze to develop, more likely on the Southern Gold Coast and NENSW. 

Winds ease further into Fri as a trough approachs , well timed as better quality E’ly swells start to build as the broad tropical low near New Caledonia consolidates and aims up a stronger E’ly fetch Wed/Thur. That should see better quality E swell in the 4-5ft range Fri, with a few more options opening up.

This weekend (Apr 29 - 30)

The wind outlook for the weekend is looking a bit unreliable with a trough expected to track North over the region, possibly seeing a light/variable flow through Sat AM before tending NE.

Winds continue to look flukey Sun although some sort of N’ly breeze looks highly likely, possibly tending NW later in the day.

There’s more confidence on the swell outlook as the tropical derived low tracks between Norfolk Island and the North Island late this week and the down the inside of the North Island into the Tasman this weekend. 

That’s expected to generate some nice pulses of E/SE swell as it moves through the swell window. 

Under current modelling we’re expecting a nice pulse to fill in Sat, in the 4-6ft range with bigger sets possible.

This pulse holds into Sun in the 3-5ft range. We’ll have to see how the wind pans out but with the favourable swell angle there should be options whatever way it swings.

Next week (Apr 31 onwards) 

Tricky wind outlook for the start of next week until we get more clarity on the trough expected to hover off the South-Central NSW Coast.

It may move offshore Mon with an offshore flow  depending on the whereabouts of the low axis.

E’ly swell should hold Mon in the 4-5ft range, wth potential for premium offshore conditions.

Following that we should see E’ly swells on an easing trend with good odds for a widespread offshore flow as a broad low pressure area occupies the Tasman.

Models are offering a juicy outlook for later next week with the remains of the tropical low being absorbed into the more temperate storm track, merging with the broad low pressure area and intensifying a S’ly fetch adjacent to the NSW Coast. Under that scenario we’d se a rapid rise in S swell late next week, potentially sizey.

Let’s marinate on that and see how it’s shaping up on Wed.