South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Fri 21st Apr)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Lots of swell and lots of wind for the next week or more
• Great run of surf for the points
• Potentially large E'ly swell next weekend

Recap

There hasn't been much change over the last few days with 4ft of east swell across the coast under moderate to fresh southerly winds (pockets of lighter SW winds early).

Kirra looking mighty fine this morning

This weekend (Apr 22 - 23)

A last minute call up to the forecast bench means I haven't had much of a chance to scan the hindcast charts, so taking everything at face value right now - and in the midst of a quality run of east swell - it's hard to find any reason to deviate away from the playbook.

The regional trough block will drive fresh S/SE winds across most coasts this weekend; the chance of isolated pockets of early SW breezes is slim. As such it's a points-only affair for the next few days with a continuation of solid swells from the east plus a building short range SE swell too.

Size should maintain sets around the 3-4ft+ mark at open locations, though the model data suggests a little higher (and personally, I wouldn't be surprised to see bigger sets). Expect slightly smaller waves at protected spots though.

Next week (Apr 24 onwards)

The trough block will break down over the weekend, to be replaced by a very strong high pressure system in the Tasman Sea, that will will reinforce fresh S/SE winds across northern locations. Throughout the week we'll see a gradual swing in the wind to the east (MNC) and E/SE in the north but at this stage there appears to be no reprieve from breezy conditions associated with the coastal ridge.

Of course, strong Tasman highs are fantstic swell producers for the points and we're looking at a week of mid range energy that should push 3-4ft+ at most coasts as a minimum, and should reach 4-6ft at some exposed regions, such as the Northern Rivers. Expect smaller surf running down the points; these locations and sheltered southern ends will have the best waves.

Current guidance suggests no significant break in the pattern until next week. So, there's no need to prioritise any day over the other, the Tasman/Coral Sea/South Pacific swell machine will be in cruise control for a while.

There's a few peripheral southerly swell sources on the cards too but with such an active eastern swell window it's not worth getting too excited about 'em.

The long range forecast ups the ante a bit, with a developing trough south of about New Cal/Vanuatu expected to move slowly south, interacting with the aforementioned high to strengthen (!) the tail end of the pre-existing fetch, and become a significant new swell generating source in its own right.

This has the potential to to deliver a couple of days (next weekend) in the 6-8ft range. Of course, this bodes well for quality surf prospects into the adjoining week too.

More on that next week. Have a great weekend!