South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 19th Apr)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Sizey Thurs from the E/SE and S/SE with plenty of S-SSE wind
• Easing E/SE swell Fri, building S/SE swell holds plenty of size winds favouring the Points
• Rebuild in E/SE swell Sat, with plenty of S/SE swell in the mix and continuing S-SSE wind
• Slow easing in size Sun
• Rebuild in SE swell next week, as strong SE surge builds in Coral Sea, holding plenty of size all week
• Winds becoming unfriendly, tending SE Mon, E-E/NE from Tues/Wed
• Possible low/trough off MNC coast next week, low confidence, stay tuned for updates

Recap

East swell yesterday came in around forecast expectations with an even spread across the region in the 4ft range, albeit a bit inconsistent and mixed in with some shorter period SSE swell. Winds were light offshore early, clocking S’ly to SSE’ly from mid morning. Today has seen a thickening up as a longer period pulse fills in, albeit fairly slow and affected by a big morning tide. Sets to 4-5ft have been reported with the odd 6ft rogue. Conditions were lumpy/clean early with slack winds, tending to light/mod SSE-SE breezes during the day which favoured the Points for pumping, clean surf.

Some sick ones from behind the Rock

This week (Apr19-21)

We still have the trough block pattern in place with the South Pacific low centre contracting away to the NE while a secondary low centre retrogrades back into he Tasman Sea. An anchoring high, is being shunted away with a trough and front expected tomorrow before a new dominant high moves in from the Bight.

In the short run and a stiff S’lies rebuild through tomorrow as a reinforcing high and the retrograding low combine. We should see todays pulse hold into tomorrow morning with size in the 4-5ft range (the odd 6ft set) before a slow easing trend sets in. There’ll be some building short period SSE-SE swell in the mix as well. Obviously, Points only with fresh S-SE winds on offer. 

The fresh S/SE flow extends into Fri so you’ll need hit up the sheltered Points again. East swell continues to slowly roll off in size with 4ft sets, easing down to 2-3ft during the day. That will be offset by plenty of SSE-SE swell building size to 4ft+, although much smaller into more sheltered inner Points.

This weekend (Apr 22 - 23)

As mentioned in Mondays notes the trough block buds a small retrograding low which tracks SW back into the Tasman Wed/Thurs. We’ll see an E-E/NE infeed fetch into this system and a return SSE fetch on the bottom flank of the low.

Saturday see a rebuild from the E’ly fetch with sets back to 3-4ft and with more consistency due to the closer proximity. Mod/fresh S’ly winds should be SW inshore early across most of the region so worth getting up for although it may take a little bit of time for that pulse to fill in properly so give it another look if it looks undersized early. SSE-SE swell from the bottom flank of the low hold size in the 4ft+ range, bigger at open beaches which will be horrendously wind affected.

A slow easing is expected Sun under continuing S-SE winds, lighter inshore early then mod/fresh SE through the day. 3ft+ sets will become slow and and ease back down to 2-3ft during the day. 

Next week (Apr 24 onwards)

The blocking trough pattern breaks down next week as a very strong high moves into the Tasman with a very firm ridge up along the sub-tropical coast ( the so-called Quidge), weaker down in temperate latitudes. 

Fresh SE winds  are on the menu Mon, with a strong surge in SE winds through the Southern Coral Sea rapidly rebuilding wave heights to 4-5ft.

By Tuesday the high will be in the centre of the Tasman with a classic blocking signature- SE winds in the sub-tropics, E-NE winds from the Hunter southwards. 

That in itself will see stacks of sizey trade swell through next week, likely holding in the 4-5ft range, with bigger sets.

Winds will be a problem though, tending more E/SE then E’ly through Tues and holding straight E north of the border, and tending more E/NE south of the border.

Complicating matters we’ve seen a trough develop off the Mid North Coast on recent model runs. If the trough moves offshore we may see a surface low develop with potential for sizey surf later next week, initially for temperate NSW, potentially for SEQLD later on if it moves into the Tasman.

Failing that, an approaching front should see winds tend NE and freshen later next week and then turn offshore as the front pushes through, possibly Fri or Sat. 

We’ll keep tabs on it but it looks like the eastern swell window will remain active for a while yet.

Check back Fri for the latest.