South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 14th Apr)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Moderate+ S/SE swell persisting across Northern NSW Thurs thru' Sat; only small in SE Qld but workable
• Sat the pick of the weekend with good winds early tending NE in the a’noon
• Small and N’ly Sun
• Solid E/NE and S/SE swells building from Mon next week as trough-block pattern establishes
• Sizey Mon-Thurs with plenty of S-SSE wind, slowly easing through the week
• Likely rebuild in SE swell next weekend with plenty of SSE winds- stay tuned for updates

Recap

Small S/SSE swells have continued since Wed with yesterday seeing 2-3ft surf at S facing beaches in NENSW, 1-2ft at  SEQLD S swell magnets under W-NW winds which tended SW-S through the a’noon as a small low off the North Coast wound up and then moved away. A small late pulse of S swell has carried over into today with sets to 4ft at NENSW S facing beaches and 2-3ft at SEQLD S swell magnets and Northern Corners. SW-S winds are now easing and tending more SE-NE. 

Not much shape to it but a fair bit of S swell getting into Northern Corners on the Sunshine Coast

This weekend (Apr 15 - 16)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. Sat morning still looking nice with an offshore flow developing o/night Fri and extending well into the morning before light/variable winds then pre-frontal N’lies kick in south of the border. North of the border we should see a lighter SE-NE flow through the a’noon. Residual SSE swell from a lingering fetch caused by this week’s Tasman Low becoming slow moving in New Zealand longitudes supplies 3-4ft surf early, with a slow easing trend in place through the a’noon. S facing beaches will be the only clean options as the N’ly kicks in.

Sunday sees easing swells from that source from the morning- with some stray 2-3ft sets in NENSW, tiny 1-2ft in SEQLD at the most reliable S swell magnets and Northern Corners. Early winds should be OK for the beachies with a NW tilt but they’ll tend mod N-N/NE through the day.

Next week (Apr 17 onwards)

OK, we’re getting more clarity on the dynamic situation expected to unfold next week. The current small low off the North Coast quickly gets whisked away towards New Zealand and becomes enjoined in a long, NW-SE blocking trough pattern, which is expected to have more low pressure centres embedded in it next week. 

Initially the low enhances a broad E-E/NE wind infeed over the weekend, contracting NE into a low pressure centre near the North Island early next week. In the Tasman, a SSE feed is enhanced along the lower end of the trough.

The passage of a front later Sun brings a stiff S’ly change for Mon as a high pressure ridge builds in behind the front, likely reaching the border by 9am, wth a brief period of lighter winds in advance of the change. E/SE swell from the Cook Strait fetch and developing E’ly fetch off the West Coast of the North Island as well as SSE swell from the Tasman Sea sees surf build into the 3-5ft range during the day after a smaller start.

Stronger E/SE-SSE swell then fills in Tues into the 4-6ft range under a stiff S-SSE flow as high pressure moves off the Central NSW Coast. 

Winds should ease a notch for Wed as pressure gradients ease as the trough/block pattern starts to break down . Strong, mid-period ESE swell holds in the 4-6ft range, with a slight, slow easing trend likely by close of play.

We should see a proper offshore flow through Thurs with a continuing slow easing in mid period ESE swell, although still in the 4ft range to begin with.

Further into next week and swells are likely to ease slowly through Fri as the trough/block pattern and embedded lows retreat eastwards.

The potential cyclone we mentioned on Wed now looks to manifest as a surface low in the Coral Sea which retrogrades South-westwards back towards the SEQLD Coast and possibly further South, enhancing a fetch of SE winds through the Northern Tasman next weekend.

Under current modelling that would see a windy rebuild in wave heights from the E/SE, initially favouring the sub-tropics and extending into temperate regions as the fetch moves S.

We’d expect surf to rebuild back into the 4-5ft range through next weekend with plenty of SSE-SE wind under current modelling.

We’ll see how that shapes up on Mon, but we’ll have plenty to talk about with the upcoming pattern.

Check back then and have a great weekend!