South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 5th April)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Easing size into Good Friday with freshening N’ly winds
• Fun S swell Good Friday, easing Sat 
• Winds tending NW-W on Sat
• Easing swells and W’ly winds Sun
• Building directional S swell Sun (NENSW), smaller into SEQLD
• Solid round of S swells Mon/Tues, slowly easing  Wed with mostly offshore winds
• Last kick in S swell Thurs, easing into next weekend

Recap

Plenty of fun sized E/SE-SE swell since the last f/cast with yesterday seeing  swell to 4ft in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD under easing S’ly winds.  This morning has seen continuing sets to 3ft, with E swell rolling off and new S swell filling in to 2ft in NENSW with SEQLD in the 2ft range and the odd 3footer at swell magnets. Light winds are now tending N’ly and freshening.

Plenty of size at NENSW S facing beaches

This weekend (Apr 8-9)

No great change to the very dynamic Easter weekend f/cast. A mid-latitude low slips East of Tasmania overnight and deepens rapidly as it merges with an incoming frontal system. The front brings a strong NW tending W’ly flow through Sat which will herald the start of a major S swell episode, favouring NENSW for size.

We won’t see any new S swell Sat, but there will be nice leftovers from todays pulse along with the last of the E swell, adding up to see nice 2-3ft surf through the morning with an easing trend through the day. You’ll probably need to head to backbeaches through the morning due to todays N’lies leaving some scarring but this should clean up though the day.

Easter Sunday will see directional S swell start to build with lines sweeping up the coast and the usual spread in wave heights depending on exposure to S swells. We should start to see S swell across the MNC coast early morning, mid/late morning on the Yamba-Byron stretch, with S swell reaching the border just after lunch. Size into the 3ft range, 3-4ft at NENSW S swell magnets, wth smaller 2ft in SEQLD is expected. 

Next week (Apr 10 onwards)

The low rotates around a complex core on the weekend, with a line of gales to severe gales actually moving back in towards the coast, slightly diminishing swell production for the East Coast, especially north of the Hunter. We’ll still see plenty of size Mon though with 3-5ft surf across S exposed breaks in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft at SEQLD S swell magnets. W’ly winds should lay down a little through the day, tending lighter SW in the a’noon. 

A northwards push of gales into Mon sees another strong pulse rebuild into Tues, likely representing the peak of the swell. This should see 4-6ft surf build in at S exposed breaks in NENSW, smaller 3ft at S facing beaches in SEQLD under a light W-W/SW flow which will tend to light SW-S breezes in the a’noon. 

We’ll see a nice long tail on this swell as the fetch occupies most of the lower Tasman and only slowly dissipates as it contracts Eastwards. 

In fact we’ll see plenty of size into Wed, with 4ft+ surf expected across NENSW, 2-3ft in SEQLD at S facing beaches and light winds with the possibility of a new pulse Thurs pushing wave heights back into the 3-5ft range at S exposed breaks. Wed winds look great, light/variable offshore right through the morning but a new front Thurs should reinvigorate a SSW-S flow up the coast.

Easing swells are then expected late next week and into the weekend, although residual SE winds under the South Island should hold some small SE swell through that period. We’ll investigate that further Mon.

Longer term and we’re still looking at another complex low system approaching from the Southern Ocean. We’ll monitor over the weekend to see if this has potential in the Tasman Sea in the week beginning 17/3.

In the meantime hope you are enjoying these Autumn swells and have a great Easter weekend!