South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 5th April)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Upgraded outlook as low forms off Mid North Coast
• Rising E/SE swells Tues with freshening SW-S (possibly more W-W/SW initially) winds as low deepens
• Solid E/SE swells Wed, tending more SE Thurs and favouring NENSW for size, fresh SW-S winds expected
• Easing size into Good Friday with light winds
• Fun S swell Good Friday, easing Sat 
• Winds tend N’ly Fri
• Winds tending NW-W on Sat
• Easing swells and W’ly winds Sun
• Late kick in S swell Sun (NENSW)
• Solid round of S swells Mon/Tues, slowly easing from Wed with SW-S winds

Recap

Swells built from the E/SE yesterday as a trough of low pressure deepened off the Mid North Coast. Size built from 2-3ft to 3ft during the day across most of NENSW, with smaller 2-3ft surf in SEQLD and much larger 4-5ft surf on the Mid North Coast. Winds were generally light SW-S with stronger SE winds on the Mid North Coast. Today has seen an increase in size across most of the region- 3-4ft for most of NENSW, building 2-3ft in SEQLD and stormy 6-8ft in Coffs, under the direct hit from the low. A building trend is evident across the entire region.

More swell energy this morning with deluxe Autumn conditions

Sunny Coast also seeing an increase

This week (Apr5-7)

The big ticket item presently is the complex trough of low pressure off the Mid North Coast. Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes show a proximate fetch of strong winds with embedded low end E’ly quarter gales aimed directly at the Mid North Coast. Radial spread from this source is providing E/NE swell to temperate NSW and E/SE swell to subtropical areas with the Mid North Coast getting the direct hit and most size. Over the next 24-36hrs the low retreats eastwards and winds rotate around more SE to be aimed more directly at the sub-tropics. 

In the short term we’ll see slowly easing pressure gradients across the region as a weak high moves into the Tasman and the low moves away. That should see fresh morning SW-SSW breezes moderate S’lies tend lighter SE in the a’noon. Mid period E/SE swell should top out in the 4-5ft+  range in NENSW with a few bigger sets on offer. Expect smaller 3-4ft surf in SEQLD and bigger easing 5-6ft surf on the Mid North Coast. Plenty of fun waves on offer with the usual spots offering the best quality

E/SE-SE swell will be on the decline through Good Friday with sets to 4ft in the morning on a downward trend through the day. That will be offset by directional S swell to 2-3ft at S facing beaches in NENSW- which should offer up clean options under a morning variable flow before winds tend N’ly and freshen through the day. 

This weekend (Apr 8-9)

Clearing NW’ly tending W’ly winds are still on track for Easter Sat as a trough and the remnants of the mid-latitude low start to push into the Tasman, driving a W’ly flow across the most of the Eastern seaboard. A troughy area around Coffs may see some fickle NE-SE winds through the a’noon. Sat looks like a low point as far as surf size goes but a small mix of swells from the E and S should provide some 2-3ft surf with an easing trend. We may see a late kick in new S swell from gales out of Bass Strait, but Sun looks a safer bet. We’ll finesse that on Fri.

Easter Sunday sees the small mixed bag continue with a slight kick in E/SE swell from the last remnants of the fetch near the North Island supplying some 2-3ft surf. We’ll see a complex low enter the Tasman this weekend and gales out of Bass Strait may supply some small 2-3ft S swell energy to the mix in NENSW.  Winds from the W-W/SW early tend to light seabreezes so expect premium surface conditions.

Next week (Apr 10 onwards)

Gales to strong gales are expected to push northwards adjacent to Tasmania this weekend, generating large S swells for temperate NSW with subtropical areas hindered by the swell shadow of the Hunter curve.  Easter Monday should see a steady upwards trend in S swell, as a strong S swell cycle kicks off, enough to blow out the cobwebs from our quiet start to Autumn. Swell shadowing will lop off a far amount of size but we should see S swell build in to the 4-5ft range at S expose breaks in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft at SEQLD S swell magnets. Winds will be mod/fresh SW early, tending SE through the day, stronger south of the border.

The fetch looks to broaden and weaken across the lower Tasman Mon, but Tues is still likely to see the peak of the swell for our region as the fetch clears the Hunter curve. Expect 4-6ft surf at at S swell exposed breaks in NENSW, smaller 3ft+ wrapping into S facing beaches in SEQLD. Winds will be SW early and tending S’ly through the day, possibly easing off later in the a’noon as they tend more SSE-SE but you’ll need to seek some wind protection at any rate.

We’re likely to see quite a slow roll-off in size from Wed as the low centre moves NE and slowly dissipates up near the North Island, with the windfield covering most of the Tasman Sea. 

Expect plenty of juice Wed in the 4ft range easing through the day with S’ly quarter winds.

By Thurs we may see winds start to back down and tend offshore, even NW as high pressure moves across the Tasman and another frontal system and potential mid-latitude low approaches from the Bight. Swells should tend more SSE as the fetch moves across the lower Tasman.

We should be in mop-up mode Fri with swells continuing to ease into next weekend under current modelling.

Longer term and we’ll be watching to see if the approaching frontal system/low develops in the Tasman Sea early week beginning 17/3.

We’ll also keep tabs on a potential fetch north of the North Island and a late season cyclone in Fijian longitudes later next week.

That’s a long way out and we’ve got plenty to occupy us in the short term so check back Fri and we’ll see how it’s all shaping up.