South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 3rd April)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Easing S swells Mon with SE winds establishing
• Upgraded outlook as low forms off Mid North Coast
• Rising E/SE swells Tues with freshening SW-S (possibly more W-W/SW initially) winds as low deepens
• Solid E/SE swells Wed, tending more SE Thurs and favouring NENSW for size, fresh SW-S winds expected
• Easing size into Good Friday with light winds
• Fun S swell Good Friday, easing Sat 
• Winds tend N’ly Fri/Sat
• Easing swells and W’ly winds Sun
• New round of S swell, possibly sizey, next week stay tuned for updates

Recap

Another weekend of small, clean surf, favouring NENSW for most size. Sat was in the 2-3ft range in NENSW, with S swell magnets 3-4ft under light all day winds. SEQLD saw some 2ft surf at magnets. S swell bumped up a notch Sun with 3ft surf at S exposed breaks in NENSW and S magnets in the 4ft range, smaller 2-3ft at S facing beaches in SEQLD. Clean conditions lasted until late morning before S’ly winds kicked in. Today has seen more small S swell in the 2-3ft range, clean early before SE winds kicked up. We’ve now got a more dynamic outlook leading into  Easter. Details below. 

Should see more size this week than the small, clean stuff we've been getting

This week (Apr3-7)

High pressure in the Tasman right now is being enhanced by a series of troughs, with the coastal trough responsible for Sydneys weekend deluge now tracking north. Off the QLD Coast we are seeing a parallel coastal trough deepen with a long elongated trough of low-pressure expected to cojoin the NSW trough over the next 24-36hrs. This will direct an E’ly fetch across a wide swathe of the Eastern seaboard from the sub-tropics down to the Sydney region. A small closed low forming in the trough then slowly retracts eastwards as we head into the Easter weekend. Winds are going to be a bit tricky but we’ll have plenty of E/SE-SE swell to play with this week as this fetch forms up. 

In the short run we should see a small surface low form in the trough tomorrow, likely off the Mid North Coast (Crescent to Coffs). That will see winds tend offshore SW before freshening from the SSW-S during the day as the trough and low deepen. E’ly winds infeeding into this system see swells rise quickly through the a’noon, likely up into the 3-4ft range after an undersized start in the 2-3ft range.

Winds tend more W/SW-SW  on Wed as the low deepens and starts to move offshore, in an E/NE direction. As it does so, winds on the western flank freshen so expect plenty of SW-S wind through the a’noon especially from Coffs to Ballina, with lighter winds in QLD.  Plenty of E/SE swell is expected with size in the 4-6ft range. As with all these close range lows, any slight movements will have large effects on nearshore winds and swell size so keep tabs on the comments for real-time observations.

The low continues to move away to the E/NE Thurs, likely being positioned between Lord Howe and Norfolk Island during this period. The flaring up of the W-SW quadrant of the low whips up plenty of mid period SE swell for Thurs, up in the 6ft+ range for NENSW, smaller 4-5ft in SEQLD. SW-S winds should start to ease as the low moves further away from the coast and pressure gradients ease. 

Good Friday sees a small signal of  S swell, generated by a deep low passing through the Lower Tasman Wed/Thurs, along with plenty of slowly easing E swell. A new high will have slipped into the Tasman during this period and quickly moved NE, bringing NE winds through Friday. At this point it looks like a period of morning W-NW winds are on offer before winds tend N/NE and freshen through the day. E/SE-SE swell in the 3-4ft range and S swell in the 3ft range at S facing beaches is on the menu under current modelling. We’ll give these numbers a tweak during the week as the event unfolds.

This weekend (Apr 8-9)

Winds should tend pre-frontal N’ly Sat so you’ll need a friendly backbeach to get clean conditions. N’ly winds will greet a mixed bag of leftover E/SE-SE swell to 2-3ft and some small S swell to 2-3ft at S facing beaches. We may see some small NE windswell in the mix as well depending on how Friday’s nor-easter behaves. 

Winds should rapidly improve Sun under a clearing W’ly flow as a mid-latitude low approaches from the west. Remnants of the mid-latitude low move into the Tasman overnight Sat into Easter Sunday. Small surf is likely for most of the day, in the 1-2ft range at exposed breaks. 

Next week (Apr 10 onwards)

New S swell is on the menu for Easter Mon. There still some model divergence to wade through but the broad-scale pattern is firming  with the mid-latitude low moving aggressively into the Tasman and pushing strong SSW-S winds up into sub-tropical latitudes. We’ll have to see how model runs shape up this week but building surf Mon, possibly peaking in the 4-6ft range in NENSW, smaller 3-4ft in SEQLD looks likely. Winds looks to be S’ly for the opening days of next week- possibly easing Tues and tending light SE-ESE on Wed. 

S swells are likely to slowly ease after a peak on Tues.

Troughiness and another approaching frontal system and potential mid-latitude low  will be watched later next week. Generally speaking it does look like a much more active phase of Autumn is about to begin after a mellow start to the season.

Check back in Wed for the latest.