South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 29th Aug)

Forecast Summary (tl:dr)

• Small E/NE swell for SE Qld later Mon/Tues/Wed, very small south from Ballina
• Light winds & sea breezes north from Ballina most of next week
• Northerlies affecting Mid North Coast late Mon/Tues
• Better (tho' still small) trade swell next Fri/Sat
• Slight kick in S swell Thurs for NENSW
• Much sizier S swell expected Sat/Sun as low forms off MNC with fresh S’ly winds
• Long period S groundswell Mon, easing into Tues/Wed next week

Recap

Small surf over the weekend but size remained surfable with Sat just a notch above expectations, with 2-3ft surf across NENSW, smaller 2ft in SEQLD. Winds stayed fairly fresh S’ly as the high pressure ridge stayed stubbornly strong. Sunday dipped in size with mostly 2ft sets from the SSE, with a few bigger 3ft waves in NENSW. Conditions were clean early under offshore winds which lingered well into the mid-late morning before light E’lies. Just a small, weak signal of surf in the 1-2ft range today with light winds ahead of freshening N’ly breezes.

Small, gurgly tradewind swell to start the week

This week (Aug 29-Sep 2)

Not a great deal of action on the charts to start the last week of Winter. A strong high (1040hPa)  is on the other side of New Zealand but pressure gradients in the Tasman are weak, with minimal swell energy being generated from that source. Later in the week, Tradewinds do poke their head up over New Zealand and generate some useful E swell.  N’ly winds are freshening ahead of a trough which is drawing down more moisture from the Indian Ocean and brings a  S’ly change mid-week and a small pulse in S swell.  A much stronger change on Sat looks to form a low in the Central/Northern Tasman with a more substantial swell increase.

In the short run and we’re looking at small, weak surf through tomorrow morning, mostly NE windswell whipped up overnight in the 1ft ocassional 2ft range from Yamba south and some small E/NE tradeswell favouring SEQLD. N/NE winds are expected to reach moderate levels during the day, so keep expectations low, there won’t be any size or quality around. Just a little grovel for the keen.

More of the same small background E/NE tradewind swell is expected Wed, with size topping out around 2ft, a tad bigger on the Sunshine Coast and offshore islands. Variable winds are expected to set in Wed, as a trough moves through the area, tending S/SE south of the border.

Small S swell joins the mix in NENSW Thurs as a result of a weak fetch out of Bass Strait and off the South Coast but we’re not looking at much size, only a 1-2ft signal at S facing beaches, and not showing north of the Border, where more small, weak tradewind swell keeps a minimum size surf in the 1-2ft range.

We should see a slight but noticeable uptick in E swell Fri as the tradewind fetch poking up behind the North Island sends some bigger 2-3ft surf our way. It’ll still be a bit slow and sleepy but with light winds expected, Fri looks the best day of a very quiet week. A front pushes through overnight Fri with S’ly winds expected to freshen. 

This weekend (Sep3-4)

A very vigorous S’ly flow will be with us all weekend as a low deepens off the NSW sub-tropical coast- likely drifting near Lord Howe Island by Sat (see below) and a large high moves through the Bight. So you’ll need to find some wind protection both days.

The stiff S’ly fetch will produce the biggest surf in sub-tropical NSW, but there’ll still be plenty of size north of the border with Sat seeing a windy, ragged surf building into the 6-8ft range at S exposed breaks in NENSW, smaller 3-4ft on the Gold Coast and 2-3ft on the Sunshine Coast. Expect much smaller surf tucked in to more sheltered corners. In addition to the S swell there will be some small E swell as a result of an enhanced tradewind fetch which develops NE of the North Island this week. This will be better aimed at the sub-tropics but should add some 2-3ft energy into the more sheltered corners.

Sunday brings more of the same stiff S’ly flow and S swell. While this is going on a severe gale to storm force parent low is passing well to the south in the Tasman. Some super long period S swell will be in the mix Sun, albeit at small levels compared to the dominant short range S swell to 4-6ft in NENSW, smaller 3ft in SEQLD. Add on the E tradewind swell and there’ll be some peelers on the Points with size diminishing the further into the Bay you go. Outer Points will see some head high surf. 

Next week (Sep 5 onwards)

Long period S swell will be in the water at significant size Mon, with local winds on the improve as high pressure moves over the region. We’ll finesse as we move through the week and see how it shapes up, but at this stage it looks like a strong storm with excellent high pressure support on the western flank and very high swell periods, possibly as high as 17-18 seconds. That will see some serious grunt at S facing beaches, especially deep water adjacent reefs and bommies. Expect size in the 5-6ft range with much bigger surf, possibly in the 8ft range at these S facing reefs. Light S’ly winds are expected.

Long period S swell slowly winds down through Tues and into Wed, as a remnant SSW fetch near New Zealand helps maintain swell energy. Expect 3-5ft surf Tues with smaller size Wed and S’ly winds as high pressure moves out into the Tasman. 

Longer term and it looks like high pressure will set up a weak blocking pattern towards the end of next week. That suggests an easing trend in place from mid next week into the weekend 10-11/9.

Check back Wed for a fresh update.