South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Fri 19th Aug)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Solid east swell Sat, easing Sun/Mon
• Generally light winds and sea breezes Sat
• Freshening S'lies through Sun (light/var early, north from Ballina)
• Light winds and easing swells Mon
• New E'ly groundswell Tues but winds look tricky from the N/NW
• Winds tending S'ly Wed as the E'ly swell slowly eases

Recap

Building E’ly swells over the last few days, pushing 4-6ft today in Northern NSW, smaller in SE Qld near 3-5ft. Light winds and sea breezes created generally good conditions on Thursday; early NW winds today have swung fresh N’ly in a few spots this afternoon, focusing the best waves to sheltered corners. 

Coffs Harbour this arvo

This weekend (Aug 20-21)

No major changes to the weekend outlook.

Today’s E’ly groundswell should manage a similar size as per today. In fact, swell periods are expected to draw out a little more with the arrival of a secondary pulse but it’s difficult to anticipate much more size than today. Let's again ballpark size in the 4-6ft range across Northern NSW, and 3-5ft at exposed beaches in SE Qld.

A front pushing up the Southern NSW Coast today will deliver an overnight SW change to most regions, but it should clear to the east through the morning. So aside from a few coasts in Northern NSW where we may see an early lingering S/SW flow, winds should become light through the day, afternoon sea breezes are even possible here and there.

On Sunday, the east swell will start to slowly ease back, and winds will be light early ahead of a fresh southerly change pushing up the coast through the day. It should be north of the Mid North Coast before sunrise and nosing into Yamba, before reaching the border around lunchtime (give to take). 

Wind strengths won’t be too bad but it will confine the best conditions to protected points and sheltered southern ends. Expect some ragged building south swell in the mix after lunch too, trailing the change. 

Next week (Aug 22 onwards)

Easing E’ly swells and some residual south swell are expected on Monday with generally light winds, though we’ll see a swing to the north in the afternoon, fresh across the Mid North Coast. 

This will be in response to a potential southerly change, maybe even a small, brief but strong coastal low off Southern NSW. 

It’s a spanner in the works for Tuesday, which is expected to herald the arrival of a fresh E’ly groundswell from that fetch way out in the South Pacific. Size should push 4-5ft by the afternoon, maybe even some bigger bombs across Northern NSW (slightly smaller across most SE Qld locations) however with NW winds tending N/NW at times we’ll be once again aiming for the northern ends for the east waves. Most open beaches should have options early, though surf size may be slightly undersized at this time.

The outlook for the rest of the week is a little hazy.

Swell wise, we’ll see a gradual easing of E’ly swells from 4-5ft at exposed beaches in Northern NSW (smaller in SE Qld) but local winds will probably be around to the southern quadrant, depending on that that low/front does. Of course, local swell from this source is also not he cards but confidence ain’t high right now.

All in all, a lot to keep a watch on.

Have a great weekend!