La Niña goes out with a bang. Days of E swell ahead, with conditions improving early next week
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 25th Feb)
Forecast Summary (tl;dr)
- E'ly swell holds in with plenty of size Sat and Sun with winds favouring Points, tending more S to SE Sun
- Days more E'ly swell ahead next week with winds favouring the Points
- Lighter winds Wed, potentially open up beachbreak options
- Longer period E to E/SE swell kicks back in Thurs and holds in through Fri and the weekend
- Surf finally quietens down after next weekend
Recap
More unstable weather and swell from the Eastern quadrant over the last 48hrs. Despite generally atrocious conditions, including flooding rain and howling onshore winds, we are seeing a building trend in E’ly swell that is seeing protected Points offering up surfable options. Size is building from the 3ft range yesterday into the 3-5ft range now, smaller at sheltered Points. Winds are mostly straight E’ly, with some areas showing more favourable E/SE winds through the a’noon. It’s definitely a day for the keen.
Best chance to score uncrowded Superbank if you can tolerate chocolate mousse water
Showing at the most protected Points
This weekend (Feb 26 - 27)
Our La Niña summer is going out with a bang. Moist E’ly winds are still being fed into the East Coast, with a large area of tropical low pressure over the Coral Sea and multiple troughs all linked to the Monsoon Trough providing an extremely unstable atmosphere.
The deep E’ly flow extends from the tropics down into the Central Tasman Sea, maintaining a constant signal of E swell over the weekend and into next week with a general building trend. Onshore winds? Yep, plenty of that too, unfortunately.
No change to the weekend swell forecast. Swell from the E is already in the 3-5ft range and will hold at similar sizes through Sat, grading smaller into more sheltered inner Points and Bays.
Sunday should see more of the same with a slight increase- plenty of chunky E swell in the 4-5ft range, favouring the Points.
Keep in mind, water quality will be a factor anywhere near estuarine run-off or stormwater drains.
Winds will be the biggest factor.
A coastal trough, extending northwards from the Wide Bay coast up to the Monsoon Trough, and inland through the South-East QLD region will dictate winds this weekend. Those winds will be mostly E’ly, through E/SE on Sat- strongest on the Sunshine Coast.
Sunday should see a more SE tilt to the winds, possibly even S to S/SE; straight offshore at the Points. Expect winds to abate in SEQLD, and freshen from the SE to E/SE in NENSW as a low centre forms and moves Southwards through Sunday.
A lighter E’ly flow is likely south of Coffs.
Take home: There will be surfable options this weekend but most of them will be at the very few protected Pointbreaks.
Next week (Feb 28 onwards)
Lots of action next week. We’ve got plenty of E’ly swell incoming- with some model variability suggesting we’ll need some further fine tuning next week.
The basic building blocks of the pattern are a strong high pressure belt cradling multiple low pressure systems in the Coral Sea and South Pacific- essentially creating a huge, multi-centred low pressure gyre through a vast area of ocean to our east. The upshot is multiple fetches of E’ly winds aimed directly at the East Coast. Onshore winds will be a feature too.
Monday sees surf hold strongly across the region, with a spread of wave heights. Biggest in NENSW, where the direct influence of the low will be strongest. Surf south of the border and especially south of Ballina will be a solid 6ft+ Mon, likely 6-8ft. With plenty of strong SE wind.
Expect smaller surf in SEQLD, more E/SE in angle and in the 4-5ft range. Winds will remain S to SE, with a chance of lighter SW winds on the Sunshine Coast.
This is going to be a fluid situation depending on the movement of the surface low or lows off the coast, so stay tuned for real-time updates.
Winds are a good chance of swinging SW on Tues , as the low moves south, although that depends on the position of the low. Strong surf continues in the 6ft range in NENSW, smaller 3-5ft in SEQLD, and likely easing during the day, as the fetch aims up more into NSW.
Wed looks the best bet for the first true offshore morning in the region, for quite a while. E/SE swell in the 3-4ft range in SEQLD, should grade bigger 3-5ft in NESW.
Phew, winds look tricky again by Thurs as the coastal low drifts South and a weak E’ly flow re-establishes. Lets come back to winds on Mon. Surf should should muscle up though, as a result of wind speeds increasing along a broad fetch, as low pressure centres within the gyre press down on the cradling high pressure ridge.
That should see longer period E to E/SE swell trains push back up into the 4-5ft range, possibly bigger 6ft on the NENSW coast.
Expect that pulse to hold Fri with more light winds, possibly tending to light NE breezes.
The weekend will continue the long period E swell regime, with surf in the 3-5ft range and light winds, if your arms still work.
We should see light winds of some kind on the weekend, and possibly a S’ly change later Sun.
Longer term and this run of swell finally quietens down early in the week 7/3, with a front in the Tasman suggesting a small pulse of S swell during that period.
A windy, swell filled start to Autumn is on the radar.
Check back Mon for a fresh update and have a great weekend!
Comments
Noosa.... .
fuck.this.summer.off
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-25/south-east-queensland-flooding-li...
Sprout. you know the outlook is for wetter than normal Autumn?
sorry, don't want to ruin your day.
I think a lot of people are over it.
Haha, yes thanks for reminding me Steve. It's not just the rain, at least 'normal' summers you get oil slick days, offshore days, clean arvo surfs once storms rolled through etc. tonnes of actual good clean windows all over the place, this one's been mainly a relentless slop fest of shit outside of the points. I don't even care about waves at this point, give me dead flat, clean and sunny. At least the wind might start blowing the right way soon. Anyway, where's that cot gone for all these toys...
Wind swung light north around lunchtime on the SC.
Odd runner if you could make sense of it.
What's the go with both the pass cam and Byron bay? Both seem to be down
SC cams frozen too
More dog shit onshore brown water slop with more infections than the Convoy to Canberra grubs. Fuck this. Noosa the only option and we know what that will look like - lucky to get a park and walk 5 k's in the rain to join 500 of me besties.
What has convoy to Canberra people got to do with the weather dickhead
Yep, we're onto it.. https://www.swellnet.com/comment/808126#comment-808126
Better having too much rain than this: 'Day Zero' - when the taps run dry unless rain falls - is set for mid-April in the J'Bay/Cape St Francis region.
https://stfrancistoday.com/high-water-users-to-be-restricted/?fbclid=IwAR16KhB7yIhpQltShAXNsYbkE9hpWWd7_JRexpNpt6XejJb8_Gpv-Pwm1Bw
Stu, Stu, Stu….Day Zero should be a moment of pride!
I know the good people of Sydney must be anxiously watching the countdown till Perrottet’s wet dream of EXPLOSIVE population growth turns their rivers and dams to dust.
Think of the vibrancy in the air once we officially swap drinking water for infinite drive for diversity.
I’ll raise a glass of recycled sewage to that idea!
Huge rainfall totals across some parts of SE Qld since 9am yesterday.. highlights so far:
589mm at Mt Glorious (which also recorded 250mm the day before, and 134mm the two days prior.. i.e. 973mm in 4 days!)
485mm at Pomona (plus 415mm yesterday, 9mm Thurs and 361mm Wed.. i.e. 1,270mm in 4 days!.. wow!)
Lots of Sunny Coast/Noosa places picked up 300mm overnight, on top of similarly large totals the days before. I'll go through the list once we have the official 9am readings as there's still four hours of data collection to go (and it's still raining).
"485mm at Pomona (plus 415mm yesterday, 9mm Thurs and 361 Wed.. i.e. 1,270mm in 4 days!.. wow!)"
Incredible. The mean annual rainfall down here in the Gong is 1,127mm....and they passed that in four days.
Already a 1 in 1000 year event.
Wow.
Thankfully a reprieve up there at the moment. Mary River over 20metres at Gympie. Will be some bad flooding up there
Thats insane.
Those poor buggers in flood prone areas. I noticed in most of the ABC interviews late last night , the interviewees all had Pommy accents . I can just hear them whingeing about how they moved here for
the serenity of the "aussie lifestyle" .
Wow sounds crazy up there on the not so sunny Sunshine Coast, incredible precipitation totals. Got to be dangerous to drive or travel with rain totals like those! Stay safe! Surf wise we had fun (if u got the right ones) 4ft+ wobbly short period waves with heaps of power & a lot of water moving late arvo 25/02/22. Got a couple of nice waves after a couple of good workouts afta getting caught inside !!
485mm is quickly rising at Pomona. 535mm now and we have plenty more coming. Incredible
Unsure what the local rainfall record is but we have to be getting close.
And this is all from a stalled coastal trough, not a tropical cyclone (or ex-TC), or an ECL.
Amazing.
There’s one road open into Pomona. Nearby Cooran Kin Kin Kenilworth Imbil are completely cut off. Water world everywhere at the moment.
Stalled alright! Just sat in the same place for four days. Meanwhile Cooly has a
only had a couple of mil. Amazing
No rain at my house in the last 36 hours.
Looks like the trough and any small low centre that forms in the trough is delayed in it's southwards trajectory compared to notes yesterday.
Expect winds to worsen tomorrow, tend E through NE and into Mon before that SW to S outflow hits later Mon.
Title amended.
Less rain for this zone you think?
Rain centres on the trough right?
I’m not even convinced those winds will come to fruition for Monday for anywhere south of Brisbane.
Definitely through today, will likely increase tomorrow as trough remnants and possible small low moves south.
Depends on the upper low which is semi-stationary over inland Sunshine Coast now, and enhancing rainfall in that area.
That is expected to move south later today.
It's a very dynamic situation.
Bucketed down all night and still is right now.
Couldn't get to my local cafe with roads flooded I've never seen do that in my life, every gutter has a fountain, back to bed.
The most amazing thing about this rain event is that it wasn't caused by a cyclone (or ex-TC), just the interaction between a surface and upper trough.
The MSLP charts (below, from Friday morning) really don't suggest anything out of the ordinary for this time of the year. If you were scanning these charts for significant weather events you'd be hard pressed to hone in on such a major development.
Gympie this morning
thats some serious water. The Goldy has been really lucky this entire event. Rain either side of us.
Here it comes mate. Next 24 hours will be hectic. Poor buggers down south on the Clarence are copping floods too.
yep, looks like i spoke too soon
It’s been nuts here. All the water falling around here flows to the Mary River and Gympie and Maryborough which will have issues (and towns in between)
Who ever decided to settle a town called Gympie beside the Mary River should be shot. Same goes for Ipswich!!
Actually and Brisbane for that matter!!
Happened all over the country. Gympie has plenty of high ground really close to the CBD. I think Gympie’s CBD Mary St is really built in a flood overflow channel of the river proper. First photo above CBD and below
Gympie$ History
In 1867, James Nash discovered 72 ounces of Gold. ....This started the Gold Rush in Gympie and it became known as The Town that saved Queensland from Bankruptcy...
The mines shafts were bought up & reopened in 1970's...
http://gympiegoldmuseum.com.au/
12:15 greenmount cam replay old mate impossibly deep
Just started raining here on the Tweed.
Hope the Maryborough levee works this time around
Yeah what happened last month? Pump failure was it? Can’t remember but I hope so too as I think it’s worse this time. Hope it all works for obvious reasons but also to see if it works.
Has not stopped in bayside Brisbane for prob 36 hours. Streaming in from the ene.
Will push 400mm by lunch tomorrow I think
I'm not far from Pomona and I've had at least 850mm. Unfortunate I havent been able to get precise numbers, because the gauge maxes out around 300, and the big dumps have been happening in the early hours of the morning when I wasnt keen to head out and empty the gauge.
I've wondered why the trend has been these massive increase in rain intensities in short periods (3-6hrs) in those early morning hours (2-6am)? Any meteorological/trough-related reason for that?
and I concur with Seeds - water everywhere. And fairly widespread power outages now too. I've fled to the coast, as I can't help but feel the power may take some time to get back on, with access for repairs being the major problem. Should have got that generator as I'd planned to weeks ago...
bucketing down here on the Goldy now.
Those rainfall totals around SC and Brissie are just hard to fathom. Been raining on and off in Sydney for 5 days, and bloody heavy at times, to deliver rain totals that don’t match some of the 3 hour recordings coming out of those areas.
I often read about big weather events in other parts of the world and hear their rain totals and think, pffft, that’s a summer shower in Oz.
It’s hard to imagine just what that is like, think there were 1 hour total in the low 100 mms and 3 hour totals in the 300 mms in some places.
Thinking of anyone up that way and wishing the best to all. Stay safe and don’t go driving across water on the roads. Stay home if you can.
Me, I’m getting lockdown fever relapses after day 6 of barely half an hour periods without rain.
https://www.seqwater.com.au/dam-levels
Lots of beach erosion and big trees down. Lots of photos from people of random streets and roads flooded never seen before. Manhole covers moved around the place. How's the water across the Bruce too, crazy.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-26/queensland-weather-rain-flooding-...
La Niña goes out with a bang, spot on FR hah.
Shit. Here we go
https://www.facebook.com/1167895709998660/posts/4939374989517361/?d=n
Barely a drop in Ballina all day today.
Just watching it sit just above us for hours and hours on the radar.
Thank god for that.
Got the father in law coming out from UK on Thursday, spent the whole day working outside trying too restore some order to land untouched due to back injury and La Niña.
Managed to halfway get on top of things.
It'll be overgrown again by Thurs though!
Looks like that rain blob is moving south now.
Lismore people would be feeling nervous tonight.
Hope that levee holds.
How is the back FR? Surfing at all?
Mate of mine has headed up to South Lismore now to pack up.
He's got a gym and the property goes five feet under in a 1 in 100.
So if the Richmond catchment gets anything like up in Queensland, I reckon I'll be going up there in a few days with a shovel and a pressure cleaner to help him out.
Rain has definitely set in on the Tweed now, though precip rates are pretty ordinary (for now). Can't imagine what 100-150mm in an hour must feel like.
Well you’ll be able to feel that today Ben.
Been fairly standard here so far (relative to major rain events). 150-200mm over the last 24 hours i.e. about 15-20mm per hour over about 18 hours - but nothing extraordinary in the rainfall rates (yet).
A little off topic, but environmentally relevant...With all this inundation, Pumistone passage/Golden beach river banks are being further scalped as we speak....and im sure the new north-south Bribie islands seaway is ever widening. Has anyone ever thought that 4yrs ago, 1.3million cubic metres of sand was removed for the s.c. airport from Moreton bay and furthermore.... the south to north migration of sand which replenishes Bribie, Sunshine Coast(espec. Noosa's points),beaches and Fraser island. Are we to see further erosion due to this sand removal and what will be the cost.
Will the council/QLD govt compensate the affected for their negligent and reckless environmental damage??
from what i understand the govt, councils and parks/ wildlife all just threw their hands in the air prior to the break through, none wanted to take ownership and accept the large sum it would take to fix the issue.
Water was surprisingly clear this arvo at pass, and bath warm too.
Bin day was Thursday, left the green bin out on the street with the lid open for a good rinse after rubbish was collected.
It’s now overflowing with rain water.
So, Mt Glorious ended up with 709mm in the 24 hours to 9am yesterday. Incredible. Plus, 250mm the day before, and 134mm the two days prior. So that was 1,093mm for the four days.
They've just recorded another 425mm since 9am yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to 1,518mm.
This beats Pomona, which was sitting on 1,326mm for the previous 4 days. It added a measly 136mm since 9am yesterday so its 5-day total is only at 1,464mm.
Meanwhile, the Tweed/Richmond regions had another wet day, up to 160mm so far across the Hinterland, whilst coastal stations were more in the 60-70mm range (though it's still coming down).
Mt Glorious ended up with 461mm in the 24 hours to 9am, bringing the five day total to 1,554mm.
And, it's recorded another 158mm in the six hours since 9am.
So, total for five and a quarter days is 1,712mm.
Wonder if we can crack two thousand mil from this event?
Rainfall rates starting to increase in Le-Ba area now and inland catchment areas.
Mod to Major flooding expected at Lismore (Wilsons river) and Clarence River.
Winds have swung SW on the Sunny Coast, SSW on the Goldy.
Beachies starting to turn on, just need a little more water to mitigate some of these big closeouts. Hopefully it stays as is for a mid arvo session! I think the original wind forecast stands, fingers crossed
You on the GC Ben? Its looking like a full toilet bowl before flushing on the central beachies..
Man I spoke far too soon. Spewing. I was down tugun for a good hour and it glassed right off. Assumed we were on. Went down to coolie to fill in some time waiting on the tide and voila back to a dog's breaky haha. Squalls tho, could swing again I'm gonna have a crack regardless later on. Cabin fever has set right in.
Legend.. sometimes it just better to have a dig and then u can leave it alone.. greenie looks ok.. I have yes/no ing it all day…
Only during that last rain patch. Back to the east now.
Fingers crossed for some more wind changes this arvo on the incoming tide, could be a few sneaky waves to be found,
there was literally 5 bodies in the water this morning at 6am on the noosa cam ,waist high runners .
surely that has to be a first in a while, different story now though
Did a drive by a little while ago, size looks to be in the 5-6ft range now though it's just a chocolate burgery mess. Gonna be days before there are surfable optoins 'round here.
Whoa.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-27/houseboat-rescue-at-howard-smith-...
Jeezus.
How fast did that thing go under.... close call for the old guy
"An evacuation order has been issued for people in the Tumbulgum region of northern New South Wales, amid warnings of life-threatening flash and riverine flooding and torrential rain."
"An evacuation warning has also been issued for... Chinderah and Fingal Head" (and other spots too).
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-27/flood-evacuation-for-tumbulgum-li...
Under 3km from the Swellnet office to Chinderah (though, we're safe where we are, beachside).
Wonder if there's a risk that the M1 will flood, like it did in 2017? At the time, my wife was working a shift in the Tweed Hospital and got stuck there, and had to overnight with friends on the Goldy.
Todays rain seems to have ducked Cooly again since lunchtime. Brisbane and the Sunny Coast still getting hammered though, then pushing through to inland northern rivers. Wouldn't want to be in Lismore tonight, that joint's a massive spoon drain.
got absolutely hammered here overnight and through till around 1130 at bribie island ,
It already has north of Bris.
My elderly Grandma is holed up at the Burpengary BP, about to spend her second night there in the car.
She sent me a few pics, good few hundred mil of water over the road.
Apparently there are a couple hundred people stuck there with police not allowing anyone to come or go.
Shit mate, hope she's okay. I did hear that yesterday, they were telling anyone leaving the Sunny Coast heading south on the M1 to turn around as it could be blocked for potentially days.
She’ll be right, she’s a tough old chook.
Worked at the leprosarium in Derby in the 70s - reckons one morning she was on the tea trolley run and ran over one of the old leper’s toes. Lopped them clean off.
Apologised, disposed of the toes, and carried on with her run.
OT, Burpengary is one of my fav town names to see on the highway signs (along with Tumbulgum).
Driving east from Melbourne - Ernst Wanke Rd and then a good one when you drive towards another sign a bit further along is
‘Beer or spirits?’
‘Nar Nar Goon’
haha. Yes! Many moons ago had family living near ol Ernst. Narre warren i believe. Classic!
Meanwhile, in the Northern Territory....scroll down to the photo :-P
https://www.news.com.au/national/rush-hour/rush-hour-woman-finds-xrated-...
And Worongary (you’re Burpengary, what’s Worongary?)
Also Woodenbong.
It did up here. Still shut tomorrow apparently.
North Brisbane is phenomenal. It appears it has stalled here since early this morning as the radar just keeps re-developing orange blobs.
Property damage very high in many suburbs
Yep, what it did on the SC for 3 days straight. BOM rain radar just kept turning into rain over and over. Never had rain that heavy for so long before, maybe 5 minutes in a big arvo storm, not hours at a time over days and days, incredible.
Lismore CBD and low lying areas being evacuated.
It's going to go very close to over-topping the levee and if that happens will be a catastrophic flooding disaster for the town.
Madness. Wivenhoe Dam was at 50% a week ago, now it's water supply volume is full, and their flood storage is nearly full aswell. that's around 1000 GL.... if it get to 200% (flood and water supply volume) the dam wall pops....
https://www.seqwater.com.au/dams/wivenhoe
they are opening the gates fo the spillway.... tomorrows high tide will be interesting in brisbane city...
Seems to be a stationary line of storms from about Ballina through Federal and up to Beaudesert.
Still waiting for the rain to kick back in again on the Tweed. Hasn't been much since about lunchtime.
Byron bom obs has showed moderate to strong NNE winds all day but I swear that was not the case.
Any thoughts?
Yeah I’ve noticed that too. Feels like more ENE. Might need a recalibration?
Yeah I’ve noticed that too. Feels like more ENE. Might need a recalibration?
Cam rewind.
Looking at 1974 water levels in Lismore.
“Major flooding is expected at Lismore early Monday morning. The Lismore levee is expected to be overtopped around 5:00 am Monday. River rises around the levels of March 1974 (12.15 metres) are possible Monday morning, which is above the March 2017 peak (11.59 metres).”
Just got SES alert via SMS:
SES EMERGENCY FLOOD ADVICE. LOW LYING AREAS OF OCEAN SHORES, BRUNSWICK HEAD, SOUTH GOLDEN BEACH AND NEW BRIGHTEN IS ISOLATED. FOR YOUR SAFETY EVACUATE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW ONLY IF SAFE TO DO SO. AN EVACUATION CENTRE AT OCEAN SHORES COUNTRY CLUB IS OPEN. DO NOT ENTER FLOOD WATERS. BE AWARE YOU MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REACH THE EVAC CENTRE. THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION! RISK TO LIFE IMMINENT. THIS IS A RAPIDLY EVOLVING SITUATION. FOR EMERGENCY ASSISTANCE CALL 000.
Here we go across the Northern Rivers. Some incredible totals in the 18 hours since 9am Sunday (on top of five very wet days already):
Dunoon: 519mm
The Channon : 471mm
Doon Doon: 453mm
Goonengerry: 441mm
Uki: 412mm
Corndale: 379mm
Lismore (Dawson St): 376mm
Huonbrook: 352mm
Upper Main Arm: 350mm
Upper Crabbes Creek: 329mm
Alstonville STP: 308mm
Yamba: 246mm
Meanwhile, north from the Gold Coast since 9am Sun:
Tomewin: 338mm
Currumbin Ck: 330mm
Coplicks Bridge: 304mm
Upper Springbrook: 389mm
Benobble: 281mm
Upper Tallebudgera: 279mm
Mt Nimmel: 246mm
Wongawallan: 242mm
Brisbane City: 233mm
Gold Coast Airport has recorded 193mm, of which 130mm came down in the five hours since midnight.
Yeah the wet ground with those totals
I see Evans head sitting on 424 mm
Relentless
Upgrade of the Tweed flood risk as of the BOM's 5am bulletin:
Feels like 2017 all over again. For reference (from the Tweed Council website):
So, two ‘1 in 100 Year’ floods in five years? There's climate change happening before your eyes.
"Flood emergency in Lismore, Murwillumbah, Kyogle set to be largest on record"
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-28/lismore-flood-emergency-levee-bre...
The Brisbane river graph looks very ominous. BOM is calling 4m this morning.
They said on the news that 2011 was 4.5m. Already at 3.5m with 3 hours of tide to come in. I guess the tide has less effect the higher the river gets.
I hope everyone is safe and bailed to higher ground.
That predicted flood level at Lismore is absolutely massive, way above the old record. Poor people there are going to be smashed.
I think they’re gonna need to relocate the CBD at some stage after this happening again so soon.
A relic of the river trade system.
Not viable to insure your business down there. And who would want to take over the ones that don’t recover?
Hope everyone is safe there.
If anyone has the time to be indulgent, here's an interesting article from the Conversation about what's causing it: https://theconversation.com/like-rivers-in-the-sky-the-weather-system-br...
Good luck and stay safe, everyone.
Just got up into the Gold Coast... the inside two lanes on the M1 just north of Chinderah are already 15-20cm underwater. Fast lane not yet affected, but won't be long. Had to change route across the Tweed three times due to road closures/flooding. Very heavy rainfall rates... insane weather.
Wilsons River over-topped the flood levee between 2 and 3am.
Catastrophic flooding now occurring in Lismore.
SES asking for all available boats and skippers to assist with flood rescues.
River levels already exceeding 2017, 1974 floods.
ANNOUNCEMENT: Please do not bring boats or vehicles to NSW SES Lismore City Unit! We appreciate our wonderful community is keen to help, but the more traffic on the roads the slower it makes our work. Our teams are getting to people as fast as they can. Stay safe and thank you.
https://www.facebook.com/NSW.SES.Lismore.City
Those comments from people in trouble are heavy, hope they get help.
It's hard to fathom.
When you're in Lismore there're tags everywhere showing the height of the 1974 flood.
In many places in the CBD these markers are 12ft up power poles.
Now adding another 1.5m to this?
Major shit.
How will Lismore deal with it moving forward?
I’m hearing that it’s gone well above the first level of buildings so a lot of those places that moved their stuff up last night it’s all ruined anyway.
People are on the roofs and in ceiling cavities.
It's going to be fucked for a long time.
I'm seeing so many images of families on roofs; babies.
It's heartbreaking.
13.91m
Wish the fucking SES would get their shit together, do they need boats or not.
24 hour totals to 9am include:
Dunoon: 775mm (1,080mm in last five days)
Goonengerry: 706mm (1,050mm in last five days)
Doon Doon: 698mm (1,156mm in last five days)
Huonbrook: 661mm
Uni: 575mm
Nimbin: 537mm
Upper Burringbar Rd: 535mm
Upper Springbrook: 525mm
Tomewin: 452mm
Currumbin Ck: 451mm
Upper Crabbes Creek: 443mm
Clothiers Creek: 419mm
Cudgen Lake (Pottsville): 390mm
Alstonville: 390mm
Myocum: 306mm
Yamba: 274mm
Minnie Water Pump Station: 274mm
My mothers been here at west tweed ( near seagulls ) 40 odd years and the waters made the letter box twice before . High tide has now passed and hopefully the worst is over . Thinking of those in Lismore and northern rivers and the unfortunate souls that lost their lives in south east Qld .
image uploader
Bloody Hell SF. Is that looking across to Gollan Drive? Were stuck up the hill at Bilambil, cant get out either way as the road from top shop to Bilambil has collapsed and Kennedy is well under water
We are in jacaranda avenue off lakes drive , the water on Kennedy drive got away ok yesterday once the tide went out .
Don';t know if it's even possible to get into Lismore from the coast, all major roads appear to be closed.
Filmmaker Justin Gane has posted footage of the new hinterland property he's moved into which is now a few square metres smaller - lost to the 'creek' below.
Damage everywhere.
I'm at the airport, and the runway looks to be a foot underwater right now.
Lismore had 181mm of rain in 30mins to 915am. That is insane rain, no wonder it came up so fast.
Oh man just catching up, this is so heavy. Lismore sounds really bad, the amount of damage and cleanup especially so soon after recent major flood events, crazy.
Local facebook site had some pretty irate crew from Palmers Island complaining about the fuckwit sightsee'rs in four wheel drives cruising around last night having a gawk...and causing wake waves on already flooded properties
Heard stories locally here in Brissy where max water was 100mm or so below habitable floors and same thing - sight seeing in four bes and that has literally caused the inundation
You only need 50mm through a house to fuck it
Lismore radar isn't good. Big blob coming.
For reference the ute is on the shallow side (it gets deeper as you get closer to the runway).
Torrential at Cooly. The airport seems to be right on the boundary - it's clear to the north of about Palm Beach.
Meanwhile, the Sunny Coast is looking, well, sunnier.
Getting messages from friends in Lismore.
People swimming out their homes with the clothes on their back.
Lost everything.
Heartbreaking stories.
Fark, would the water be flowing really fast in town, ie if you jump off the roof can you swim to higher ground or be swept down the Richmond?
Depends where you are Craig.
Lots of heavy flow through the CBD and normal low lying areas.
If you are in the "Basin" it's more water depth, less flow.
Rain just stopped at the airport, but will take hours for the water to recede off the runway.
And... The torrential rain is back.
That's what happened here, you think it's stopped then get woken up multiple times at night the rain is that loud and heavy. Finally out the other end. Hopefully not too much to go your way.
Massive numbers. You guys are posting. Best wishes to those effected.
More importantly, all the cooly cams are down!?
dont think much surfing will be happening today. Not just the gross water but the logs and everything else coming out of the river will make it more than challenging.
Much of Cooly has been without power.
We've got a few locations that are down across SE Qld that will need to be checked by technicians, due to potential water damage. We'll get on to that ASAP.
Crazy the amount of debris coming out of the creek on the Currumbin Ally cam. Its going to be a huge clean up
Current Lismore flood level is 14.3m.
And looks like there's still a bit left to go.
Previous highest level was 12.46m in 1890.
Surfed Greenmount yesterday, was of course filthy with debris as well as crowds on the low tide.
Sun has just come out in Surfers finally. I'm down the back on the Nerang River. Not looking like it goes break the bank and go over the road. River level seems to be going down. Can see a few guys going out on the Snapper cam. I always end up with a sore throat paddling in the brown shit. Hard pass with the 20 knot NE.
(Thanks Ben/Mods)
Another person has died driving into flood waters at Currumbin this time, and his pooch, just terrible.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-28/queensland-severe-weather-rain-fl...
Sunshine & blueish skies on the GC right now. Feels weird.
Looks like nth nsw is still getting hammered right now
yeah surreal.
the coast is toast though.. water quality is like Morroco at the start of the wet season.. Black.....
I will be waiting a day or two..
Looks like another rain event on the cards later this week :(
Suns out west tweed
Still raining here.
The rains are still biblical around Lismore, gbar. Wouldn't surprise me if the river rises more than 14.5 m. Its been absolutely belting it for 2.5 hours with no letting up. Seen some very distressing scenes today!
Spoke to soon , its back to light drizzling here and just got a txt message SES FLOOD EVACUATION ORDER. People in Chinderah, Fingal Head, Bilambil, Banora Point, Seagulls Estate and low-lying parts of Tweed Heads. must evacuate now. An Evacuation centre has been established at Kingscliff TAFE, 806 Cudgen Road.
www.ses.nsw.gov.au Tel 132500……….This doesn’t make a lot of sense as the roads are flooded in our area , though they have dropped at least 400 mill in the last few hours. High tide at about 8 pm . Last time we had floods they tried evacuating everyone to bilambil sports ground which was also underwater.
I don’t know if I misheard but the ABC news at 6pm mentioned river levels may rise to 16m. That would be unbelievable. Hopefully that was just my bad hearing.
ABC:
Lismore's levee was breached early this morning and the level of the Wilsons River is expected to peak at more than 16m tonight.
Bloody hell!
Looks like there was a misquote with the 16m level luckily…from the SES:.
"Our Premier today suggested at some stage it would get to 16 metres, I want to dispel that myth completely, it has peaked, and it is starting to recede," he said…
"It got to 14.3 meters, 14.4 but certainly nowhere near the 16 metres that our Premier reported this afternoon."
Just seen the footage
Just seen the footage on the abc seven thirty program. Pretty bad. If your up that way and can help you know what to do.
Just seen the footage on the abc seven thirty program. Pretty bad. If your up that way and can help you know what to do. They need men's clothes blankets etc. not sure on the boat ski situation. Obviously wait for daylight. Pretty bad by the looks. Going to be allot of tired wet crew. Stay safe.
O
The rain talk peaked in our house tonight.
I stepped away from the computer, went to say something to my wife, who put her hand up as a stop sign and interjected: "You're not going to tell me more things about the rain up north are you?"
And with that the flood subsided.
Clear blue sky in west tweed but road is still 400 -500 mill deep , very lucky compared to a some .