South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Jan10)

SEQLD/NENSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• E to E/NE swell building in Tues with E/SE winds, more E'ly south of Yamba
• E swell muscling up Wed, likely peaking Thurs with SE winds, lighter Thurs AM
• Plenty more E swell Fri into Sat with light winds Fri, tending NE on Sat
• More E swell, rebuilding from the E/SE Sun, with N'ly winds, lighter in SEQLD
• E/SE swell Mon, slowly easing through Tues with N'ly winds, dropping out Tues
• Quieter period then ahead from mid next week, stay tuned for details

Recap

A few small waves over the weekend, a bit tattered by last weeks constant onshore flow, which persisted into Sat. Size was around the 2-3ft mark across most of the region with water quality and sand bars affected by the recent ran and large swells. Sunday saw more of the same messy 2-3ft surf with a mod E’ly to ENE’ly flow a little bit lighter than Sat. A few small 2footers were on offer at protected breaks. Size has dropped further into today with a weak 1-2ft signal from the E and light winds, now tending SE. Another round of E/NE to E’ly swell is on the menu this week with winds mostly favouring the Points.  Reads on for details. 

Small and weak with some nice beach formations, much more energy expected this week

This week (Jan 10-14)

Our current synoptic pattern is typical of the season and the La Nina end of the ENSO cycle. High pressure straddles New Zealand and a tropical low now drifting south from between Fiji and Vanuatu. A long E’ly fetch associated and strengthened by that combination will be the main swell source for the East Coast this week. The low is expected to slowly drift through the swell window, spraying the region with swell from the Eastern quadrant.

Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes show a long E’ly fetch of strong winds extending out to 165W, with stronger low end gale force winds located closer to the East Coast -roughly equidistant between Fiji and New Caledonia-  and well aimed at SEQLD/NENSW.

A tropical cyclone off the North QLD coast (TC Tiffany) will not be a swell generator as it tracks inland to reform in the Gulf of Carpenteria, taking basically the reverse track of TC Seth. 

Short term and we’ve only got one more quiet day surf-wise for the f/cast region. 

Tuesday will see an increase in new E-E/NE swell generated by the South Pacific fetch. This swell will be nice and straight, and pulsey so good bathymetry is likely required to get good surf. From an under-sized start surf should build from 2-3ft into the 3-4ft range through tomorrow. Expect mod E/SE winds, which will tend more E’ly south of Yamba.

These winds will then clock around more SE on Wed and Thurs. There’s a chance of lighter S to SW winds inshore early, especially on Thurs and more likely on the Southern Gold Coast. 

High quality E swell will build from the 3-4ft range Wed into the 3-5ft range Thurs. It’s not really a size to sort out crowds on the Points but that is definitely where the cleanest conditions will be under prevailing SE winds. 

With the tropical low slowly tracking through the swell window, swell direction will by degree, track slighty from north of E to dead E. That won’t make much difference to most spots but it could light up certain spots. 

Friday looks fantastic with light winds, tending SE in QLD, more E’ly south of the border, and surf holding in the 3-5ft range at exposed breaks, smaller at more sheltered Points. 

This weekend (Jan 15 - 16)

Plenty of E’ly swell for Sat and Sunday with NE winds developing as the dominant high drifts over New Zealand and the ridge breaks down along the sub-tropical coast. With NE winds on the agenda likely to be mod/fresh you’ll have to tuck in behind south facing headlands to get some protection. There’s a good chance some marquee backbeaches will be pumping this weekend.

Size should hold in the 3-4ft range. A longer period pulse of more E to E/SE swell later Sun could see some bigger sets in the 4-5ft range after lunch.

One caveat for the weekend f/cast is if the low tracking southwards from the South Pacific to New Zealand stalls or changes direction we could get an upgrade or downgrade, depending on the speed and direction of movement. Best case is a stall near the North Island .

Next week (Jan 17 onwards)

In case you didn’t get a swing at it, next week begins with more of the same E to E/SE’ly swell. Models currently show a slight period kick later Sun- and even if we have to revise this later in the week- it’s a good sign that Mon will kick off with more of the same 3-4ft swell. N’ly winds persist Mon, lighter in SEQLD.

An approaching  trough should track north Tues, bringing lighter E’ly winds. With E/SE’ly swell holding in the 3-4ft range.

Models diverge next week with EC showing a surface low forming E of Tas by the middle of next week, generating a S to SE swell from mid next week.

GFS sits the trough over the Sydney/Hunter coast, with SE winds aimed up into the region and generating short range SE swell.

With both models showing the next high pressure system located well to the south of Tasmania into the start of next week that is likely to see an onshore flow across the region, most likely from the SE through the middle to end of next week. 

Tropical developments look more focussed on WA/NT after all the activity has been in our longitudes for the last fortnight.

Check back in on Wed and we’ll run the ruler over it again.