South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Jan5)

SEQLD/NENSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small mix of E swells Sat with continuing onshore E/NE winds
• Slight bump in tradewind swell Sun with lighter NE winds
• Chunky E swell building Tues with plenty more surf on the Points expected, possibly sizey going into next weekend. Stay tuned for updates
• More tropical developments on the radar, from both Coral Sea and South Pacific, check in Mon for the latest

Recap

A strong, consistent signal of 3-4ft surf from the E through E/SE has maintained energetic lineups since Wed. Winds have been the fly in the ointment with mod/fresh E’ly winds yesterday, tending a little more E/NE through today. It’s basically been a mess everywhere with the Points offering the best of it, throwing up some chunky sections on favourable parts of the tide.

Miles of empty beachbreak if you can tolerate onshore winds

This weekend (Jan 8 - 9)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. The current E’ly swell regime eases a few notches into Sat- into the 2-3ft range- and with E/NE to NE winds on the menu it’s an unappealing looking outlook. Best options on the more sheltered backbeaches on the Mid North Coast and North Coast but even those will likely be a bit wind affected due to E’ly component in the wind.

Sunday looks slightly better. Tradewind swell perks back up a notch as a result of an intensification of trades SW of New Caledonia late this week. This should see surf lift a notch into the 3ft range and with a lighter NE flow expected you can pencil in some fun waves at backbeaches on favourable parts of the tide.

Next week (Jan3 onwards)

Monday sees a reset of the high pressure ridge- at reduced strength- along the sub-tropical and tropical coasts. This will see light E/SE to SE winds in QLD, tending more E’ly south of Yamba. Small levels of tradewind swell from Sundays slight uptick should hold surf in the 2-3ft range.

By Tues the wave climate will come more under the direct influence of the tropics, with a broad Tradewinds band being accelerated by a tropical low drifting South from area between Fiji and Vanuatu. This fetch is well aimed at SEQLD/NENSW targets, with models showing the low retrograding towards the East Coast early next week. 

That should see surf muscle up on Tues, pushing back up into the 3-4ft range during the day. It’s a classic Pointbreak swell scenario with SE winds expected, possibly lighter S to SW inshore early on the Southern Gold Coast. If the crowds are too much you’ll have to accept a fair bit of bump and lump from the wind.

This swell regime is expected to pulse on and off through Wed, into Thurs, at roughly similar levels and with continuing SE winds, tending slightly more E’ly south of Yamba. 

There’s still some model divergence but it looks highly likely that with the low moving southwards next week, stronger winds associated with the core of the low will generate stronger swells and these should make landfall through Fri. Under current modelling that should see surf muscle up into the 4-5ft range Fri, holding at similar size into Sat.

With continuing light SE to E winds it all adds up to more action on the Points, with diehards battling beachbreaks to escape crowds.

Longer term and models are conflicted about the fate of the tropical low once  it slips south into our wide open South Pacific window. EC stalls the low near the North Island as a re-intensified gale force sub-tropical low. That will see  a strong pulse of E/SE groundswell early in the week  17/1. 

GFS sees the low slowly drift away to the SE next week whilst intensifying. That will see a more modest pulse of E/SE swell later in the week beginning 17/1.

A tropical cyclone in the Coral Sea is also a possibility during this period.

We’ve got enough on the plate to stay focussed on the short term. Check back Mon and we’ll update all those juicy possibilities in the medium term.

Have a great weekend.