South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Jan5)

SEQLD/NENSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Punchy E/SE swell  persisting at fun levels Thurs with winds tending E'ly and freshening
• Small E/SE groundswell Thurs/easing Fri
• Fun leftovers likely Fri with NE winds
• Small mix of E swells Sat with light winds
• Slight bump in tradewind swell Sun with light winds
• Chunky E swell building Tues with plenty more surf on the Points expected, possibly sizey going into next weekend. Stay tuned for updates

Recap

Strong E to E/SE swell from ex TC Seth provided surf in the 5-6ft range through yesterday, smaller 4ft on the Points. S’ly winds were offshore at most Pointbreaks and were light enough at times to open up some beachbreaks on the Gold and Sunshine Coasts. Size had eased back a notch this morning with a big high tide swallowing up most of the energy.  Winds have remained from the southern quadrant. Lighter S’ly early and now tending SE to E/SE. 

Still some dreamy lines on the Points yesterday

This week (Jan 5-7)

The remnants of TC Seth have drifted northwards and are now located off the southern edge of the Fraser Coast, where the system is slowly dissipating. A strong high is now slipping in underneath Tasmania and the combination of the decaying ex cyclone, developing high pressure ridge and an interior trough is creating a long, broad fetch E/NE winds extending from New Caledonia down into the Central Tasman Sea. This set-up persists this week, producing both wind and swell from the E to NE before a trough and new high pressure ridge brings a S’ly change to the f/cast region on Mon. 

More tropical activity is expected next week, although these is still considerable model divergence on exactly how that will shape up. Let’s dig in.

In the short run there’s no  great change to Mondays f/cast notes. Surf will hold in the 4ft range tomorrow, augmented by some E/SE groundswell in the 2-3ft range , and surface conditions will deteriorate as E’ly  winds freshen. It’s hard to see anywhere with any great quality so the best bet is to head for decent bathymetry and take your chances in the washing machine. Winds are expected to exceed 20 knots during the day, possibly reaching 25 knots so surface conditions will be a real mess. Cleanest conditions will be early morning but even that is likely to be sloppy.

Friday will see winds tend more NE, possibly allowing some cleaner surf in northern corners. E’ly and E/SE’ly swell in the 4ft range will ease  during the day, with swell periods dropping down and NE windswell entering the mix. There’ll be plenty of swell energy for a surf but again, keep expectations very low as far as quality goes. It’s going to be a real mess at most spots.

This weekend (Jan 8 - 9)

Tradewinds stay active through the Central Coral Sea through the end of this week, even receiving a little boost Thurs into Fri. Considering the active sea state it’s going to hold a consistent signal of 2-3ft surf Sat, bigger on the Sunshine Coast. Size should kick up a notch in the a’noon into the 3ft range. A trough is expected to stall on the NSW coast, disrupting the N’ly flow. That should see much lighter  winds this weekend. The’ll still puff up nor-east but there should be plenty of beachbreak options on hand if you aren’t too fussy.

Sunday sees more of the same 3ft E’ly tradewind swell, with more light winds expected. There’ll be some re-arranging of weak ridges along the coast, which should see winds tend a little more to the E/SE through the a’noon, compared to NE-E/NE  on Sat.

Next week (Jan3 onwards)

The broad scale pattern for the start of next week can now be sketched out, with details added as they become clearer. Another strong high moving south of the Bight,  and a large area of tropical low pressure in the South Pacific Convergence Zone , likely between Fiji and Vanuatu. The sub-tropical high pressure belt also extends Eastwards of New Zealand and the cradling effect of this belt along the low pressure zone is expected to create a long fetch of enhanced Tradewinds during next week. 

This fetch will initially favour northern NSW and SEQLD, with small surf on offer to start next week south of Coffs. 

Expect a continuation of 2-3ft surf through Mon with winds now becoming established from the SE as a new high pressure ridge builds along the sub-tropical coast. 

Stronger E’ly swell will build through Tues, as a more beefed-up tradewind signal fills in. While most of the strongest fetch from the tropical low remains in the swell shadow behind New Caledonia there’s enough in the cradling ridge to generate new 3-4ft E swell, possibly reaching 4-5ft during the day. With SE winds on offer, it’ll be back to the Points again.

The Points will be on the pump Wed, and for the rest of next week as well. Expect size in the 3-5ft range Wed with SE winds.

Longer term and models diverge over the fate of the tropical low. EC races it away to the SE, where it’s swell generating potential is low. GFS has the system intensifying, possibly to cyclone status, before slowly tracking southwards towards the North Island. That offers much better potential for a juicier pulse of longer period  E’ly swell, into next weekend. 

The long lead time and model variance gives low confidence on specifics this far out.  There’s much better confidence on another extended run of waves on the Points.

Check back in on Fri and we’ll serve up the latest update on how it’s shaping up.