South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Dec1)

SEQLD Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Another round of small, workable E swell from Thurs-Sat this week
• Slight bump in S/SE swell Fri
• Slight increase in S/SE swell Sun
• More small, workable swell Mon-Wed next week
• Bigger E swell from distant tradewind fetches and low pressure from Wed next week, stay tuned for updates

Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Another round of small, workable E swell from Wed-Sat this week
• Slight bump in S/SE swell Fri
• Small increase in S/SE swell Sun
• More small, workable swell Mon-Wed next week
• Bigger E swell from tradewind fetches and low pressure from Wed next week, stay tuned for details

Recap

Leftover SE/ESE swell provided some fun surf through the region yesterday, with 2-3ft sets and light winds through the morning before an onshore E/NE flow (and rain!) kicked in blowing out most spots. This morning has dropped back into the 2ft range, worth a grovel at most spots with light winds, now tending NE.

This week (Dec1-Dec3)

High pressure is now drifting over New Zealand with multiple trough areas through the Tasman Sea, interior, and extending along the East Coast from the tropics down to temperate NSW. This is creating a moist, variable, onshore flow through the region with small surf. A small low is expected to form off the Mid North Coast in the trough line overnight bringing S’ly winds to the Northern part of the state and into SEQLD whilst the region south from Seal Rocks  remains in the weak onshore flow. A stronger S’ly flow is created on Sun as a weak front pushes into the Tasman and a trough reforms in the Central Tasman sea. Activity is increasing in the near tropics and far sub-tropics in the short/medium term with good prospects for our region.

In the short run small E’ly and SE’ly energy pads out the working week. This is being generated by a broad, but narrow fetch of sub-20 knot tradewinds between the North Island and New Caledonia and another weak fetch of SE winds feeding into the Tasman trough. 

That will see surf in the 2ft range, with subtle ups and downs through Thurs/Fri and most of Saturday. 

Thursday sees a S’ly change as a small low forms off the Mid North Coast.  These winds then tend SE in the a’noon, through Thurs and Fri.

You should be able to find a small grovel wave to get wet both days.

This weekend (Dec 4-5)

The weekend f/cast gets a downgrade in both size and quality compared to Mondays notes. The trough which was expected to form in a similar fashion to last weekend is now more diffuse and lacking strength which leaves the bulk of the S swell generation to a cold front tracking past Tasmania and transiting the Tasman sea through Saturday. Models are still a bit divergent on the strength of the front, with GFS offering a more dove-ish assessment, and thus affecting most wave models. We’ll run with the more conservative assessment for now and hopefully be in a position to upgrade on Fri.

Saturday starts small and with a continuation of small E’ly surf in the 2ft range and light winds as a trough lingers somewhere between Sydney and the Hunter. These winds will tend light N’ly  before the change , which is expected to push through late Sat, possibly overnight. 

Winds tend moderate S’ly through Sun but with high pressure moving E of Tasmania a ridge along the NSW coast will see winds quickly clock around from S/SE to E/SE. An increase in short range S swell is expected to push wave heights up into the 2-3ft range at S facing beaches,  but quality will be way down at the junky end of the spectrum. 

Scappy, onshore surf will be available Sun with not enough swell to realistically get into more sheltered corners.

Next week (Dec6) and beyond

With the failure of the trough to organise the high pressure flow into a swell generating fetch on the weekend we now start next week in a very different position to Mondays notes. 

An SSE to SE onshore flow is likely as high pressure near New Zealand maintains a ridge along the coast.

That provides a continuation of a small signal of swell from the E, mostly short period and low quality, in the 2ft range, 2-3ft at magnets. It’s more of the same pulsey background energy we’ve seen the last couple of weeks, this time generated by a thin fetch of SE/ESE winds through our swell window, around a weak, elongated trough.

With correct expectations you’ll find a small wave through Mon-Wed with a weak ridge offering up light winds, mostly from the SE/NE. Light morning land breezes are possible.

The second half of next week is subject to major uncertainty.

The crux of the uncertainty is an area of low pressure forming just south of New Caledonia later this weekend/Monday. GFS model feeding most wave models has the low quickly intensifying and retrograding in a SW direction towards the East Coast. 

Under that scenario we are on track for a solid increase in E swell from Wed next week, with size in the 4-6ft range and S’ly winds as a change pushes up the coast.

The low then degrades into a long trough, with E/NE winds aimed in a broad swathe towards Southern NSW.

Other major models like EC have much less bullish outlook with the low remaining weak and washing out SW of New Caledonia.

That would see a slight increase in E swell into the end of next week from that source.

A much more distant fetch located between 170-160W roughly SW of Tonga from Sat and extending E from there, is expected to supply some persistent small levels of long range E swell into next weekend, more noticeable from the Mid North Coast northwards. The long travel distance is expected to shave off most of the size so we’re only looking at inconsistent 3ft sets. Although the fetch is distant, it does persist for several days at a reasonale strength so it’s likely to maintain a back-ground drum beat of inconsistent energy for a few days, likely overlapping with the more proximate E swell from the New Caledonia source.

With so much model uncertainty- a feature of the atmospheric instability through the SW Pacific caused by La Nina- lets pencil in E swell from mid next week and check back Fri to see how it’s shaping up as far as the details go.