South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Nov29)

SEQLD Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small SE swell leftovers Tues
• Another round of small, workable E swell from Wed-Sat this week
• Slight increase in S/SE swell Sun
• Bigger E swell from tradewind fetches and low pressure mid next week, stay tuned for details

Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Fun leftovers from SE Tues
• Another round of small, workable E swell from Wed-Sat this week
• Small increase in S/SE swell Sat/Sun
• Bigger E swell from tradewind fetches and low pressure mid next week, stay tuned for details

Recap

A few waves on offer this weekend. Saturday saw mostly small, residual E to ENE swell, better on low tides for the most part in the 2ft range. A late kick in S swell pushed wave heights up into the 2-3ft range in NENSW. Winds were generally S to SSW. Sunday saw a more substantial increase in S swell, with size pushing up into the 3-4ft range at S exposed breaks in NENSW (bigger at some select swell magnets), and 2-3ft at SEQLD S swell magnets. S’ly winds confined surf to sheltered breaks and break walls. Today has seen good surf at semi-sheltered breaks in NENSW, in the 3-4ft range, with some 2-3ft surf in SEQLD. Winds from the S have now clocked around to the SE, with a few babyfood peelers on offer at the more sheltered Points.

This week (Nov 29-Dec3)

We’re right up to our neck in a troughy La Nina pattern, which continues on through this week. High pressure is sitting just to the East of Tasmania, with the dissipating remains of the weekend’s trough of low pressure linked to a coastal trough extending up into the sub-tropics. More troughs are expected in the Tasman this week before another long, elongated trough occupies the Tasman, this weekend, in a similar pattern to this last weekend’s trough system. The tropical and sub-tropical South Pacific Convergence Zone is starting to bubble up with a series of depressions which look likely to be surf producers into the medium term and which we will monitor closely.

In the short run, the trend is slowly down with the leftover of the current SE swell event ramping gently down through tomorrow. Some early sets in the 3-4ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW, drop back into the sub 2-3ft range through the day. Smaller 2-3ft easing to 2ft in SEQLD at S facing beaches. Early light winds then tend to the E/NE during the day. There should be fun options through the morning before the wind gets up.

What follows is a period of small energy from the E as the troughs in the Tasman set up a lazy blocking pattern. A broad but weak tradewind fetch pushes south from the Coral Sea, extending out towards New Caledonia, and looping around a long trough extending from roughly Lord Howe up into the tropics. That will be the primary swell source this week, supplying pulsey, flukey surf in the 2ft range with some subtle ups and downs as wind speeds fluctuate around the trough line. Small upstream increases in windspeeds could offer an upgrade on Wed, if we are lucky.

Expect this regime of grovel worthy small surf at magnets Wed-Fri

Having said that, it’s local winds that will determine a fun surf, and they will be flukey this week, in response to the troughiness. The general pattern will be light and variable E’ly breezes, more N’ly Wed , before a small, troughy feature off the Mid-North Coast generates a S to SE flow from Wed onwards into the weekend. That offers up chances of small peelers on the Points at lower tides. 

This weekend (Dec 4-5)

The upcoming weekend is looking like a watered down version of the one just passed. An elongated trough through the Tasman Sea, squeezed by high pressure moving through the Bight. This brings S’ly winds and swell, albeit at a much reduced level compared to the current event. 

Saturday is likely to start out small with residual E’ly swell, with S’ly winds kicking in through the day as the trough winds up. There’s still considerable model divergence on the resulting fetch but neither of the major models suggest anything too powerful, so it’s good odds an a’noon increase in S swell will be short period and quite modest; likely up into the 2-3ft range at S exposed breaks in NENSW, smaller 2ft in SEQLD, where E’ly energy is likely to remain the dominant swell train. 

Mod S’ly to SE’ly winds continue into Sun, possibly SW inshore early for a brief period more likely on the Northern Rivers and Southern Gold Coast.. The trough is expected to be pushed out into the Tasman as high pressure moves E of Tasmania. That should allow for a broader coverage of S/SSE winds through the Central/Northern Tasman, although low windspeeds look to be the main limiting factor for swell generation. We can expect 3ft surf at S facing beaches in NENSW. Smaller 2ft in SEQLD, with E’ly swell mixed in. 

Next week (Dec6) and beyond

All eyes remain on the East as we head into a La Nina Summer, but we’ll start next week with swell holding from the S/SSE as the trough system weakens and moves away. That should see some leftover 2-3ft surf at S facing beaches, dropping back during the day with light winds.

A couple of small days then look likely up into mid next week.

High pressure cells either side of New Zealand by next weekend (4-5/12) anchor trade flows in the South Pacific, intensified by the development of sub-tropical depressions along the northern flanks of the highs. Under current modelling a far system may generate a small E swell for late second week of Dec, while a more proximate system SW of New Caledonia has potential for the same period. 

The long lead time and lack of consistency in model runs lends low confidence to the medium term.

The arrival of the MJO in our longitudes suggests increased odds of tropical activity during this period.

Check back Wed and we’ll have a full update on it.