South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Nov26)

SEQLD Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small surf Sat, with a late S'ly change
• Increase in S swell Sun tending more SSE with S to SE winds
• Good window Mon AM, with SE swell and lighter winds
• Another round of workable E swell from Tues next week
• Keeping a close eye on the tropics for low pressure development, stay tuned

Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr

• S swell pulse Sat PM, with S'ly winds
• Stronger S swell Sun, tending SSE, with S to SE winds
• Good window Mon AM, with SE swell and lighter winds
• Another round of workable E swell from Tues next week
• Keeping a close eye on the tropics for low pressure development, stay tuned

Recap

A week of wonky, pulsey but workable E’ly swell is drawing to a close. Conditions have been scrappy amongst a general onshore flow but windows of cleaner surf around rain showers have allowed for some fun sessions. Size has eased a notch into the 2ft range (bigger 2-3ft at a few select swell magnets) today and with N’ly winds the best waves have been at backbeaches. 

This weekend (Nov 27-28)

Just a few minor changes to be made to the weekend f/cast. The long, elongated trough line extending off the NSW Coast and angling in a NW/SE orientation towards New Zealand is now located a bit further north than modelled on Wed. Like the last trough system it’s now located more on the Mid North Coast. That doesn’t amount to much of a material change for most of the region with S to SSE winds south of the trough line still extending up into the sub-tropical region for the weekend. 

The short of it for Sat is a S’ly change which should reach the QLD border in the morning, across the rest of NENSW very early, and a period of small E swell to start in the 2ft range. 

S swell from the trough system is expected to kick through the a’noon on the Mid North Coast, later in the a’noon on the Far North Coast and just tickle the QLD border by close of play. This initial pulse will be very directionally S, so expect a wide range of wave heights. The better S  swell magnets will pop into the 3-4ft range through the a’noon in NENSW, but with fresh S’ly winds developing it’s likely you’ll need to lose some size to tuck in out of the wind.

It’s possible a slight kick in the isobars could see a more SW/SSW flow across the Coffs Coast through Sat, tending more S’ly later in the day. 

Sunday offers a lot more swell across the region, favouring NENSW for most size. Swell should clock around during the day towards SSE and with periods jumping up in the 11 second range there’s more potential for refraction into more sheltered spots.  Expect early size in the 3-5ft range across NENSW, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD swell magnets before a kick in the a’noon as swell periods lengthen and direction clocks around to the SSE. 

Mod/fresh S’ly winds tending SE through the day will still confine surfing to sheltered or semi-sheltered spots so expect surf to grade smaller into these more protected locations. There should be enough energy for surf to refract into more sheltered Points during the a’noon.

Next week (Nov29) and beyond

Pressure gradients should ease substantially to start the new week, with a weak high and diffuse area of troughy low pressure in the Central/Northern Tasman, extending up into the Southern Coral Sea. Nonetheless a lingering high pressure ridge along the NENSW/SEQLD coast will maintain a Mod S’ly wind flow Mon, likely to have a land breeze component through the morning and with plenty of leftover SE swell still in the water, Mon morning is likely to be the pick of the f/cast period. Size in the 3-5ft range in NENSW, smaller 3ft in SEQLD should provide plenty of fun waves, especially at semi-protected locations in NENSW. 

Tues is a bit of  mop up day with the last of the SE swell in the water in a significant fashion. Expect a few sets in the 3ft range early, dropping back into the sub 2-3ft range during the day. Light S to SE winds are expected through the day.

The rest of next working week becomes another period of small, workable E swell. The weak troughy pattern in the Tasman Sea is connected up with several, broad, diffuse and disconnected E’ly windfields in the region near New Caledonia and extending out into the South Pacific. Taken individually these fetches aren’t worth much, but as a collective we’ll be looking at another episode of pulsey background E swell with up and down periods and size in the 2-3ft range.

That leaves a few days of fun surf from Wed-Fri with a regime of light breezes. Plenty of small fun surf, best suited for beachbreaks and windows of favourable winds.

Of course if one of the weak troughy areas intensifies we’ll have to rejig the f/cast on Mon.

Into next weekend and (4-5/12) a S’ly change, tied to a passing front and possible trough may result in some meaningful S swell. To be honest it looks flukey at this stage and this far out confidence is extremely low.

The longer term is looking active as disturbances in the South Pacific Convergence Zone start to bubble up on long range model runs. While there’s nothing specific to mention now, odds are good that we’ll see some more meaningful swell from the E in the medium term. In the mean-time we’ll continue to monitor the area closely.

Check back Mon, for a fresh update and have a great weekend.