South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Oct10)

SEQLD Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Increase in short range S/SSE swell Tues, holding Wed and tending more SE with improving winds
• SE swell easing Thurs with winds tending NE
• Small, long range, inconsistent E swell next weekend, favouring Sunshine Coast
• Small increase in S swell Sun PM, holding Mon
• Potential for more action from the E towards the end of next week, stay tuned for details

Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Increase in S/SSE swell Tues, holding Wed and tending more SE with improving winds
• SE swell easing Thurs with winds tending NE
• Small, long range E swell next weekend
• Slight bump in S swell late Sat on the Mid North Coast
• Stronger S swell Sun PM, holding Mon 
• Potential for more action from the E towards the end of next week, stay tuned for details

Recap

A fairly crap-tacular weekend for surf, with just a small window of clean conditions Sat morning allowing for some leftover S swell to be utilised. Not much size left in it, with 2ft or so at S facing beaches, smaller elsewhere. N’ly winds blew up a small amount of windswell for Sun but with nuclear strength N’ly winds it was better for wind sports. N’ly winds have maintained poor surf through most of Mon with a vigorous S’ly change now working it’s way up the coast. 

This week (Oct 11-15)

A front is bringing another vigorous S’ly change through at time of writing and a trough, just in advance of the front is now moving northwards, with a small low pressure system expected to form off the North Coast, near the QLD border overnight or early tomorrow.

The interplay between the northwards moving trough and a high pressure system in the Bight, moving E and expected to be located in the Tasman, East of Tasmania through tomorrow and for most of the week, is producing an onshore flow and poor quality surf for most of the region. 

Winds feeding into the trough line and developing low are aimed at the North Coast and SEQLD and with the proximity of the fetch to the coast we’ll see a rapid rise in dominant short range SE swell through Tues, with some S swell trains mixed in. Winds will be fresh to strong S to SE so you’ll need to tuck in behind a headland to find anything of quality through Tues and Wed.

Expect size to push up through tomorrow into the 3-5ft range at open stretches, with smaller 2-3ft options becoming available at Outer Points, more likely later in the day. NENSW is likely to see bigger 4-5ft surf at exposed beaches with the strongest winds aimed south of the border.

 Open beaches will be a mess with the wind, but there might be some bigger middle ground at semi-exposed breaks if you don’t mind a stiff side shore wind.

That locally generated SE swell holds in at a similar size through Wed, with surf grading smaller into more sheltered Points. There’s probably not enough period or directional energy to get into really sheltered spots unless you are happy on a longboard. Winds should lay down through Wed a’noon as the small, local low pressure system moves away and weakens. These winds will tend more E’ly in NENSW, more pronounced at more southern parts of the f/cast region.

Swell tends more ESE through Thurs as the SE fetch moves eastwards and size will drop down through the day. Expect some 3ft sets early, easing back through the day. Lighter winds Thurs morning may open up beach break options but it’s likely to have some lump and bump through it unless we get a true offshore breeze o/night Wed.

An approaching mid-latitude low in the Bight tightens the the pressure gradient along the western flank of the high in the Tasman, with an increase in N to NE winds expected through Thurs a’noon. 

It’s quite a chunky, broad fetch, favouring Central and Southern NSW but there should be some NE windswell on offer for the Mid North Coast Fri, less likely north of Yamba. 

Winds improve Friday as the mid-latitude low approaches Tasmania and winds along the northern flank of the low swing offshore. They should start N, then tend NW before tending WNW through the late a’noon. Surf will ease through the a’noon as the fetch gets quickly shunted eastwards into the Tasman sea, so get in as the wind first swings offshore to get the most size. Friday has better prospects for the Mid North Coast with NE windswell cleaning up during the a'noon. Surf is likely to be marginal further north, with only small, weak swells on offer to end the working week.

This weekend (Oct 16-17)

The weekend is all about the low pressure system which drifts E of Tasmania early Sat morning with some small long range E swell filling in the gaps.

There’s still some considerable model divergence surrounding the evolution of the low over the weekend but the basic pattern can be outlined, with revisions on Wed/Fri.

Gales surround the low Sat, possibly pushing out of Bass Strait and developing on the western flank of the low. The outflow from the low and a cold front is likely to see W’ly winds through most of Sat, ironing out the surf to tiny levels. A late kick in S swell is possible on the Mid North Coast, with a small pulse from the Bass Strait source seeing surf build into the 2ft range later in the day.

Elsewhere there will be some small amounts of longer period E swell in the water mentioned on Fri, generated in Tahitian longitudes Sun/Mon. With offshore winds and not much else in the way of swell in the water, it’ll be worth hunting around for the very pulsey, Lully 2ft+ sets on offer with some 3ft sets more likely on the Sunshine Coast. Best to keep expectations low for this swell, as swell decay from the long travel will shave off most of the size and consistency. Certainly not worth sitting in a crowd for.

This swell is also expected to be in the water Sun, where it will be overshadowed by new S swell in NENSW.

Sunday sees S swell from the Tasman low with a building trend likely during the a’noon, after an undersized start. Expect mid-period surf from the S in the 2-3ft range at S facing beaches across the Mid North Coast Sun morning, build into the 3-4ft range during the day, as period thickens up with the rest of the North Coast a few hours behind. A high pressure ridge quickly builds in during Sun, with early SW winds, tending S then SE during the day. There’ll be enough size to find waves in sheltered spots but you’ll sacrifice size in doing so. 

Surf in SEQLD will be much smaller, with mostly inconsistent E swell through the day, before a late kick in S swell to 2ft at swell magnets on the border.

Next week (Oct 18) and beyond

Plenty of S swell on offer to start next week, under current modelling. The low will be tracking towards New Zealand by Mon morning, with S swell in the 3-5ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD, and rapidly improving conditions as high pressure drifts across interior NSW to be edging into the Tasman by Monday. That should see light land and seabreezes next Mon and good to great conditions.

Easing S swell then is expected from that source with some reinforcing S swell likely Wed from frontal activity passing below Tasmania on the weekend. Winds should tend back to the onshore as high pressure in the Tasman directs a weak, onshore flow.

Longer term and N’lies look likely to set up again from mid next week, with another round of potential NE windswell towards the latter half go next week, though models don’t currently have much in the way of windspeeds off the coast. 

There is some potential for the Eastern swell window to be more active next week, with high pressure in the Tasman, directing a trade flow through the Coral Sea, possibly intensifyng later in the week, although there is plenty of model divergence around this.

Models are also toying with a longer range tradewind fetch in the South Pacific next week.

The current mobile, troughy and long lead time  suggests we’ll be revising this outlook again Wed and Fri so check back then for a full update.