South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Oct8)

SEQLD Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small S swell Sat morning best early before N'lies freshen
• Hard-core N'ly winds Sun only for the keen
• NE windswell through Mon before a late S'ly change
• Increase in S/SSE swell Tues, holding Wed and tending more SE with improving winds
• Increasing N'ly winds Thurs/Fri
• Potential small, long range E swell next weekend, favouring Sunshine Coast

Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small S swell Sat morning best early before N'lies freshen
• Strong N'ly winds Sun, only for the keen
• NE windswell through Mon before a late S'ly change, with a late kick in S swell on the Mid North Coast
• Increase in S/SSE swell Tues, holding Wed and tending more SE with improving winds
• Increasing N'ly winds Thurs/Fri
• Potential small, long range E swell next weekend
• More S swell on the radar week beginning 18/10

Recap

South swell provided a brief window of fair to good surf across NENSW yesterday morning, with smaller surf into SEQLD. Surf in the 3-4ft range was on offer in NENSW, with some 2ft sets in SEQLD. Conditions deteriorated mid-morning as N’ly winds kicked up. Surf has eased back to tiny across most of the region today, with a S’ly change arriving ahead of schedule and not providing any meaningful swell through the morning. A small increase in S swell is now occurring in NENSW, albeit wind affected. All in all, nothing too exciting to end the working week on.

This weekend (Oct 9-10)

The highly unstable, mobile pattern continues with no major changes for the weekend f/cast. High pressure currently over the NSW/Vic interior races out into the Tasman sea today, energising another round of N’ly winds. 

Leftover S swells from the trough and a compact parent low which transited the Tasman later yesterday into this morning will be on offer Sat morning, with a brief window of more favourable variable winds on the cards before winds tend N to NE and freshen. Expect some small 2-3ft surf at S facing beaches at S swell magnets in NENSW, much smaller elsewhere and tiny in SEQLD. By mid-morning surf is likely to be a write-off everywhere apart from the most sheltered backbeaches in NENSW.

Sunday doesn’t have much to offer surf-wise, with a fresh to strong N’ly flow expected from start to finish and no major swell trains in the water. If you are desperate some small amounts of NE windswell are likely to be whipped up through the a’noon but you’ll need to get in the fetch to make the most of any of the energy on offer. A day to mow the lawn or chase flathead with no regrets.

Next week (Oct 11) and beyond

Highly dynamic week next week kicks off Mon with a NE/SW angled trough expected to form offshore from the top of the Hunter coast, or lower Mid North Coast. That will see strong S’ly quarter winds work their way North  through Mon , possibly SSW to S and strong to low end gale force in strength. The timing of that change is still a bit uncertain but it’s likely to be on the Mid-North Coast though the early a’noon, North Coast later in the a’noon and QLD border late PM. 

If you can deal with those winds, increasing short-range S to SSE swell is on the cards through the Mid North Coast, likely just impacting the North Coast by close of play, with surf building into the 3-4ft range. Expect tiny surf in SEQLD.

The trough is expected to move north through Tues and form an elongated area of low pressure with a robust pressure gradient developing with a high moving East of Tasmania. That will see swell clock around through the S to SSE as swell from the trough/low starts to fill in. Windspeeds aren’t expected to be anything over strong wind/low end gale and the fetch is quite mobile so size is expected to be constrained, at this point. Expect size in the 3-5ft range in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD, with local winds also expected to lay down later in the day as the trough/low moves away and local pressure gradients slacken. These winds will be fresh S to SSE for most of the day so you’ll probably need to sacrifice some size to find cleaner conditions in the lee of headlands.

Still quite a few question marks over the second half of next week, with model divergence increasing between major weather models. We can make a call on local winds with a high degree of confidence as high pressure at Tasmanian latitudes drifts towards New Zealand, giving us an increasing N’ly flow off the back of the high. That sees N’ly winds freshen through Thurs and Fri with pressure gradients tightening as a complex, mid-latitude low approaches from the Bight.

Current wave model guidance is heavily discounting swell from the SE/ESE generated by the low as it drifts near the North Island, suggesting easing 3-4ft surf through Wed, with smaller 2ft surf on Thursday and NE windswell becoming the dominant swell train. Local winds improve through Wed, with a decreasing S’ly flow that may tend more SW inshore early with winds tending to light E’ly seabreezes in the a’noon. Wednesday looks to be the pick of the week, at this stage.

It’s possible those figures may look better on Mon if E’ly winds near the North Island, or a lingering fetch of SE winds near the South Island over-achieve next week. GFS looks more bullish in that respect compared to the European model. 

By the end of the working week we are likely to be under the synoptic influence of the approaching low from the Bight, with winds expected to tend NW to W and freshen, especially if a cold front from the low impacts the region. 

This low is expected to enter the Tasman during the next weekend, with uncertain surf potential at this stage. Saturday is likely to see small surf, with easing levels of NE windswell and W’ly winds.

Sunday may see a late pulse of S swell depending on the timing and positioning of the low, but Monday looks a better bet for another round of S swell. 

We’ll also mention here a possible swell source for next weekend from the Deep South Pacific. A sub-tropical low forms early next week, in Tahitian longitudes, active in the far Eastern swell window for around 36-48hrs before dissipating and generating an area of 20ft open ocean seas. The extreme travel distance is likely to shave off most of the size but with no major swell sources on offer for the region next weekend it is likely to produce some stray 2, possibly 3ft sets, more likely on the Sunshine Coast, through Sat and Sun. Expect, long, long waits for sets and a tidally affected swell.

Longer term and more S swell is expected from the week beginning 18/10, though with such a long lead time, plenty of revision is likely in the mean-time.

Have a great weekend and check back in Mon for a full update on the new week.