South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Oct6)

SEQLD Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small S swell Thurs with winds tending N to NE and freshening AM
• Another small S swell pulse Fri/Sat, best winds Sat AM
• Hard-core N'ly winds Sun only for the keen
• Modest surf potential for SEQLD from low in Tasman next week, stay tuned for details Fri

Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small S swell Thurs favouring S facing beaches with winds tending N to NE and freshening AM
• Another S swell pulse Fri/Sat with best winds Sat AM
• Strong N'ly winds Sun, only for the keen
• Solid surf potential for NENSW from low in Tasman next week, stay tuned for details Fri

Recap

Leftover surf from the E yesterday with a light wind regime saw some very tasty 2ft waves through yesterday, with the odd 3ft set for the patient. Winds tended NE through the middle part of the day before swinging offshore again in the a’noon. Small S swell has arrived today, a little head of schedule with S facing beaches in NENSW seeing 3ft+ surf, grading smaller away from that, with 2ft sets in SEQLD at swell magnets. Conditions were clean through the morning before winds tended S, then clocked around SE through NE. 

This week(Oct 4-8)

We’re now well into the very mobile Spring pattern identified in Mon’s notes. Weak high pressure is currently over NSW and in the process of migrating into the Tasman sea and a series of fronts tied to a complex area of low pressure SE and SW of Tasmania are lined up to sweep across the SE of the continent and into the Tasman sea.

Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes show the signature of the pattern with a fetch of mostly gale W to SW winds extending from Bass Strait into the Central Tasman Sea. This is supplying the current pulse of S swell with the next front close behind.

The mobile pattern sees residual S swell from todays pulse hold over into tomorrow with the high pressure quickly moving into the Northern Tasman bringing N’ly winds to the table. One last, slightly longer period pulse is expected through the mid-morning period. Get in early for the best winds with WNW to NW flow early before winds tend N’ly and freshen. Expect a similar size to today, with some 3ft+ sets at S facing beaches in NENSW, grading smaller 2ft into SEQLD swell magnets and Northern Corners.

Fridays S swell now looks a bit less glossy, courtesy of the lingering trough and high pressure ridge maintaining N’ly winds across the region.  The swell generating fetch is split into a Bass Strait fetch and a more distant SW fetch coming around the corner from Tasmania, with both a notch weaker and less favourable than the fetches responsible for the current round of S swell. 

So, Friday gets a downgrade, with surf building into the 2-3ft range at S facing beaches, across NENSW through the morning into lunch-time and much smaller, barely 1-2ft surf in SEQLD. A wind change is expected in the a’noon, likely SW for a brief period before a trough and rapidly building ridge sees winds swings S/SE, then E/SE. Lower expectations are now in order for Fri. 

This weekend (Oct 9-10)

Not a great deal of change expected this weekend compared to Mon’s f/cast notes. Sat morning early is probably the best bet with some small levels of leftover S swell available for the mop up session. 2ft sets at S facing beaches is likely to be the best of if, smaller 1-2ft in SEQLD, with an early WNW to NW flow quickly clocking around to the N then NE, as high pressure drifts off the Central NSW coast. You’ll need to hit it early with low expectations on Sat.

Sunday looks better for wind-based activities than surfing with a strong N’ly signal expected. A slim window of lighter winds in the morning is likely to not yield much except a few stray 1-2ft leftovers, probably wind affected from the N’ly winds on Sat. By mid morning winds are expected to hit 20 knots in NENSW and stay there for the rest of the day. SEQLD winds are expected to be a bit lighter offering a possibility of surfable backbeaches if you’ve got the appropriate equipment for the job. 

Next week (Oct 11) and beyond

Models are starting to take shape on the pattern next week, which is highly unstable and dynamic, so we’ll definitely need to revise these calls on Fri, and probably Mon as well. 

A front passes into the Tasman Sun, producing a small pulse of S swell late  Mon early Tues, likely not much of a surf producer due to strong N to NNE QLD and NENSW coast.

The major feature of interest is then an offshore trough. Models still differ on the location of the trough, which will have a major bearing on the surf potential for different regions next week.

GFS places the trough just off the Central/Hunter coast, with onshore winds increasing south of the trough axis, leading to a fast rising stormy swell during Tues for Southern NSW. W’ly winds are likely to intensify along the NENSW coast on Tues, with lighter winds in SEQLD and surf is likely to iron out flat in our region.

A coast-hugging surface low forming in the trough line has potential to then generate larger surf for the region during Wed, possibly extending into the latter part of next week, depending on the position, strength and movement of the low.

EC model has the trough located much further North, off the Mid to North Coast, with the focus of larger surf on the area just to the south of the low. 

Developing moderate size E swell is likely from this scenario later next week, with the low then drifting towards New Zealand and aiming up another fetch of E’ly winds towards NSW late next week, suggesting E swell into the weekend of 16/10.

In short, our active Spring pattern continues, with firming odds for plenty of surf from mid-next week and conditions dependent on whether you are north or south of the trough/low axis.

Check Fri and models should be starting to settle on an outcome for next week, which will give us some certainty on the calls.

For now, there’s one more small S swell pulse to surf and some leftovers to mop up.