South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Oct4)

SEQLD Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small S swell pulse Wed PM, not significant in SEQLD, better chance of a rideable wave Thurs AM
• Another small S swell pulse Fri/Sat, hampered by onshore winds
• Uncertain outlook for next week, check back Wed for revisions

Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small S swell pulse Wed, favouring S facing beaches, easing through Thurs
• Another S swell pulse Fri/Sat with small windows of favourable winds
• Uncertain outlook for next week, check back Wed for revisions

Recap

Lots of tricky wind shifts over the weekend with some windows of clean conditions and a run of fun 2-3ft surf from the E which lingered all weekend, muscling up a touch on Sunday. Winds went W, N, WNW, WSW and NE over the course of the weekend. Today has seen a more traditional N to NE wind pattern, which has seen conditions degrade and confine clean conditions to backbeaches.

This week(Oct 4-8)

This week is looking much more like a classic spring pattern. The ingredients are weak, mobile high pressure at sub-tropical latitudes and a series of troughs and weaker fronts tied a complex area of low pressure in the Southern Tasman and near Southern Ocean. This is expected to bring rapid shifts in wind and some modest spikes in S swell through the week which favour NENSW and are only likely to provide marginal surf in SEQLD.

First cab off the rank as far as troughs and following fronts goes is expected to enter the Tasman sea today, with winds swinging W’ly in the wake of the change. 

We’re currently on the downslope of the current ENE swell and that easing trend continues through tomorrow morning and into the a’noon, with some clean 2ft leftovers on offer, brushed clean by W’ly winds, although a midday NE Seabreeze is possible. Keep in mind these wind shifts are still with us.

If you are in SEQLD, best get into mop up mode as the ensuing S swells are not likely to get north of the border.

Wednesday is a much better bet for S swell, with a much more solid spike expected, generated by overnight SW gales pushing NE into the Tasman, forming a small surface low east of the Gippsland coast early Wed morning. That pushes a pretty solid wind-field into the central Tasman early Wed and surf heights are expected to rise accordingly.

We should see surf build into the 3-4ft range Wed across NENSW at S facing beaches, arriving on the Mid North Coast during the morning, North Coast mid-late morning and trickling across the border just after lunch, although size will be limited to 2ft at the most exposed swell magnets in SEQLD.  Early SW winds are expected to lay down during the day and tend E/NE to NE through the a’noon. You might have to tolerate some onshore wind to get the most size as the swell fills in.

Residual swell from this source keeps fun waves on offer Thurs, with 3-4ft+ sets on offer at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller elsewhere, and easing back during the day. With a slight increase in period expected there should be some 2ft sets in SEQLD at S facing beaches and northern corners. High pressure in the Northern Tasman brings developing N’ly winds on Thursday so you’ll need to get in early when winds are NW or WNW if we are lucky. 

The end of the working week brings another spike in S swell. This one generated by a front sweeping across Tasmania Thursday, bringing gales out of Bass Strait and a tight fetch of SW/SSW winds adjacent to Tasmania as it pushes up into the Tasman. There is some model divergence on the strength of this fetch. EC has higher windspeeds than the GFS resolution but both models whisk away the small surface low expected to form in the wake of the front so we can be pretty confident the swell will be a short-lived spike. 

It’s basically a rinse and repeat of Wednesdays pulse, but a notch smaller, under current modelling. Expect surf to build into the 3ft range across most S facing beaches in NENSW through Fri mid-morning to lunch-time. Winds start WSW to SW, shift S and freshen before tending SSE. It’s likely surf will be small and blown out by the time the swell front reaches the QLD border so keep expectations very low for Friday there. 

This weekend (Oct 9-10)

No major swell sources expected this weekend, with residual S swell expected to provide a few, fun small waves on the mop up from Friday’s swell during Saturday, across NENSW, with some leftover 3ft sets, easing during the a’noon.

Early winds look the best, with a light SW/SE flow before winds tend to the NE and freshen as the weak high drifts east in the Tasman.

Sunday looks small and insipid at this stage with strong N’ly winds. With high pressure in the Tasman at sub-tropical latitudes our best bet for surf is for a small NE windswell in the a’noon for the super keen. Models aren’t showing a great deal of interest at this stage but the well positioned N’ly flow  is likely to see a small 2ft wave through the day from the NE. We’ll finesse that call through the week as we see how the synoptics play out. 

Next week (Oct 11) and beyond

The unstable, troughy pattern is giving weather models real headaches, so expect revision on any of these calls. 

EC pushes a strong front into the Tasman later Sunday, suggesting another spike of S swell, quite sizeable , through Mon into Tuesday.

A trough offshore then acts as a focal point for another round of NE/ENE infeed, suggesting swell from that direction.

GFS has an alternate scenario of a front and low passing well to the south on Sun/Mon, providing a small S pulse possible late Tues into Wed. It then suggests a low forming in a trough line off the Mid North Coast overnight Mon into Tues, with a surface low then drifting in the Tasman sea next week. This obviously has some juicier surf potential for mid next week onwards, although at this stage, the fetch is better aimed at Southern NSW. 

With such divergence it’s probably a wiser move to cool our jets before we rush into any big calls. An active troughy pattern continues and surf is likely from it into next week, although still favouring NENSW.

Check back Wed for a full and fresh analysis.