South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Oct1)

SEQLD Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Better quality ENE swell Fri, holding Sat with a reinforcing pulse Sun. W'ly winds both mornings.
• Final pulse of ENE swell Mon, easing through the day with better winds AM
• Small S swell pulse Wed, not significant in SEQLD
• Stronger S swell pulse Fri/Sat

Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Better quality ENE swell Fri holding Sat with a reinforcing pulse Sun. Mostly W'ly winds this weekend
• Final pulse of ENE swell Mon, easing through the day with better winds AM
• Small S swell pulse Wed, favouring S facing beaches 
• Stronger S swell pulse Fri/Sat
• More S swell likely into next week, stay tuned for revisions

Recap

A mix of peaky, short period ENE tradewind swell and NE windswell has kept wave heights in the 2-3ft range since Wed. Quality has been low with onshore NE winds ripping into most beaches. A few select backbeaches have had some clean peaks to ride. Size has muscled up a notch today with some 3ft sets on offer, although N’ly winds confined quality waves to a handful of backbeaches and northern corners. Luckily winds are now expected to finally tend more offshore overnight with some good windows of clean conditions expected for the weekend. 

This weekend (Oct 2-3)

Nothing major to shift for the weekend f/cast. A very large area of high pressure covers the Northern Tasman adjacent to New Zealand, contiguous with an elongated area of high pressure under Tasmania. A trough and inland low located over Victoria is now in the process of moving offshore, shunting the N’ly winds further East and bringing a regime of more variable, tending W’ly winds.

That’s good news for surface conditions over the weekend, with major chunks of both days seeing offshore winds though we will have some periods of NE wind to deal with. 

Surf-wise, swell from this current event has under-performed a notch and perusing ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes has shown a more disorganised fetch and slightly lower windspeeds than model predictions. Nonetheless, there’s a nicely aimed fetch of ENE/NE strong winds located in the Northern Tasman sea into sub-tropical latitudes and a more distant tradewind fetch out near New Caledonia. That should see plenty of fun 3ft surf through tomorrow. Winds are expected to tend WNW’ly through most of the morning before a  weak NE flow kicks in, more prominent south of the border, and likely to drop right out in the a’noon again and tend NW late in the day. Should be no problem to rack up a couple of fun sessions through the day.

A little kick in size is still expected Sun, as windspeeds increase into the trough as it moves offshore Sat. That will bump period up a notch and produce a little more juice with some 3-4ft sets expected, more likely in the a’noon. Winds look the goods through the morning with a light W’ly flow, tending NW to NE in the a’noon.

Next week (Oct 4) and beyond

A broad area of troughy low pressure drifts south in the area East of Tasmania into early next week, before retrograding into the Southern Ocean. That offers limited to no swell potential for our region so we are still looking to the E. A bump in period Monday is likely to see some quality 3-4ft surf on offer, favouring areas south of Yamba for maximum size. Winds tend NW to N’ly through Mon morning before tending NE and freshening during the day so you’ll need to get in early before it gets blown to smithereens. Size drops down through the a’noon. 

Frontal W’lies on Tuesday are likely to freshen ands with only leftover ENE swell on offer wave heights are likely to bottom out in the 2ft range. Gales are expected out of Bass Strait, but at the present the timing of this swell looks unlikely to arrive before dark on Tuesday. Small babyfood is on the menu Tuesday, with a variable wind flow expected. Likely offshore early before tending NE and then a period of NW/SW winds. We’ll finesse that on Monday.

Things get more interesting on Wednesday. Frontal W to WSW winds tail off, with a clean morning expected and a refracted S swell pulse expected from the front pushing out of Bass Strait Tuesday and a slightly deeper, though weaker fetch under Tasmania. It’s not looking large by any means but S facing beaches in NENSW should push up into the 2-3ft range during the day. Likely reaching the Mid North Coast early/mid morning, North Coast late morning/lunch-time. It’s unlikely to make an impact north of the border, where residual E swell holds surf in the 2ft range. More variable/flukey winds are expected Wed, likely SW early before E’ly seabreezes in the a’noon.

An approaching front quickly tightens pressure gradients with the sub-tropical high, leading to a rapid escalation in NE winds overnight Wed and into Thurs before the front pushes into the Tasman, with good odds a robust surface low will form.

This pattern is likely to see an increase in NE windswell during Thursday, with a replacing spike in S swell possible late Thursday, though Friday looks a better bet for timing.

South swell is likely to be solid on Fri, as severe gales cover the central/southern Tasman sea. Expect S facing beaches in NENSW to push into the 3-5ft range during Fri, with fresh WSW to SW winds expected. This spike then holds through Sat, with the low moving away quite rapidly after forming and a NE flow kicking in. SEQLD can expect some 2-3ft sets through Fri, and into Sat.

Troughy conditions continue into the medium term with more frontal activity pushing past Tasmania later next weekend suggesting more swell from the South into the week beginning 11/10. 

Check back Mon, with so much dynamic instability in the Tasman sea significant revision is likely.

Have a great weekend.