South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Sep 29)

SEQLD Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Junky, short period tradewind swell bumps up a notch Thurs, into Fri with continuing N'ly winds
• Better quality ENE swell Fri, holding Sat with a reinforcing pulse Sun. Mostly W'ly winds this weekend
• Leftover ENE swell slowly easing Mon
• Possible S swell mid next week, stay tuned for revisions

Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Junky peaky short period tradewind swell bumping up a notch Thurs into Fri (not significant south of Yamba)
• NE windswell south of Yamba, building Tues PM, peaking Wed, slowly easingThurs
• Better quality ENE swell Fri holding Sat with a reinforcing pulse Sun. Mostly W'ly winds this weekend
• Leftover ENE swell slowly easing Mon
• Possible S swell Wed next week, stay tuned for revisions

Recap

Not much to write home about since Monday’s notes. NE winds have produced low quality surf, bar a few backbeaches and the peaky ENE tradewind swell generated off the top of the high in the Tasman has come in at the lower end of f/cast expectations. Surf in the 2ft range has been observed across the region, with a slight bump in wave heights through the day, marred by fresh NE winds.

This week (Sep 27-Oct1)

Northerly winds and an unstable atmosphere remain the dominant themes, with a large high now drifting close to the North Island and an approaching trough and inland low starting to tighten pressure gradients adjacent to the NSW coast. Tradewind flows in the Coral Sea have been at the weaker end of model expectations with ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes showing mostly sub 20 knot winds, with less coverage than expected.

Couple more days of N’ly winds ahead, with mod/fresh N’lies on again tomorrow, tending more N/NE in the a’noon. Short period ENE tradewind swell in the 2-3ft range, should pop up another notch into the 3ft range as the fetch lengthens and broadens off the coast. Again, keep expectations low, but energy should boost up through tomorrow, allowing for some fun surf at backbeaches with tradewind swell exposure.

By Friday the proximate fetch of N’ly winds will move further offshore as the trough approaches. This will winds finally wind back, earlier in NENSW, later up in SEQLD. Expect a later shift in winds to the NW which should improve wave quality at backbeaches. ENE tradewind swell is expected to bump up a notch as well, a more consistent 3ft, with better quality as wavelength draws out. If you keep expectations pegged you’ll find fun waves Fri, although the weekend will have much better wave quality. Well worth your attention if you can get to the beach.

This weekend (Oct 2-3)

Weekend is still looking good, with NE/ENE swell being generated by the slow moving fetch feeding into the trough, extending out towards New Caledonia and a basically W’ly wind pattern. 

The fetch remains active over the weekend, although slightly weaker compared to earlier model runs. Compensating for lower windspeeds will be a broad coverage of wind from the Northern Tasman, up into the Southern Coral Sea. This should see plenty of fun peaky ENE swell in the 3ft range and with W’ly winds on offer most of the day a heap of options to choose from. Weak seabreezes might puff up later in the a’noon Saturday but they shouldn’t affect wave quality too much. 

Light offshore winds continue Sunday as the trough continues to linger in a roughly NNE/SSW axis through the Tasman sea, and an inland low drifts offshore from Bass Strait/Tasmania. It’s an interesting/unusual pattern for October. 

We’ll leave a little wriggle room for wave heights Sun, with models showing some divergence on windspeeds as they feed into the trough. That offers some upside potential for the basic 3ft size range expected, especially into the a’noon, as period bumps up a notch. Offshore winds Sunday should continue through the morning before N’ly winds kick up, but windspeeds should be below 15 knots so wave quality should be serviceable at most beaches, apart from the Points.

Next week (Oct 4) and beyond

Unstable pattern continues into next week, with a low drifting East of Tasmania and the trough in the central Tasman also possibly forming a weak surface low. This broad area of complex low pressure is expected to drift south, with a diminished surf potential compared to Monday’s notes.

ENE swell Mon morning is likely to keep surf humming in the 2-3ft range, before that source dips down during the day. Winds look to be N to NW before another W’ly change as a front passes through. 

A stronger front passes through Tuesday, likely seeing gales out of Bass Strait and fresh W to WSW winds develop. This is likely to see a late kick in S swell Tuesday before a stronger S swell Wed, as pressure gradients tighten between a high moving in from the Bight and the broad area of low pressure in the lower Tasman. We’ll finesse wave heights on Fri, but early indications are for 4-5ft of directional S swell Wed, with a synoptic W to WSW wind through the region. 

The trend looks to be down from mid next week- but with so much instability and troughiness continuing it’s likely we’ll be up for constant revision during this period. 

Check back Fri and we’ll run a fresh ruler over it.