South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Sep10)

SE Qld Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Few small leftovers from the E through Sat
• Small S swell favouring NENSW later Sat/Sun but N'ly winds a problem
• Small S swell pulse Tues week, favouring NENSW
• Stronger S to SSE swell building Wed, holding Thurs, revisions likely
• ESE swell possible next weekend, stay tuned

Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Few small leftovers from the E through Sat
• Longer period S swell  Thursday, easing Fri with increasing N'ly winds
• Small S swell favouring NENSW later Sat/Sun but N'ly winds a problem
• Small S swell pulse Tues week, favouring NENSW
• Stronger S to SSE swell building Wed, holding Thurs, revisions likely
• ESE swell possible next weekend, stay tuned

Recap

It’s been a dizzying array of swells over the last week but we are now on the backside of a long period S swell pulse that saw solid surf at S facing spots yesterday, easing through today. Select deep water reefs and S facing bars in NENSW, saw surf in the 6-8ft range through yesterday morning with bigger sets, although surf was mostly much smaller in the 3-5ft range at exposed breaks. SEQLD saw surf in the 3ft range which consisted of long period S swell and E swell leftovers, which are on their last legs after a week long run. Winds were light offshore early, before tending N’ly through the day.

Today has seen swells ease, although leftover sets from the S maintained some 3ft+ sets in NENSW, with SEQLD generally dropping down into the 2-3ft range. Clean conditions early turned onshore with NE winds, although a period of troughy ESE winds provided a period of surfable light onshore flow.

All in all, a nice wind down after a great week of waves.

This weekend (Sep 11-12)

The weekend is tracking along similar lines as suggested in Wed’s notes with no major changes to the f/cast. Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes show the passage of front through the lower Tasman, and models confirm this passage is rapid, which leads to a duration limited fetch. So keep expectations in check, this is just a small, bog standard S pulse, favouring NENSW for size in the 3ft range at S facing beaches and much smaller elsewhere. Very limited size is expected in SEQLD from this source. This swell is expected to fill in mid/late morning on the Mid North Coast, lunch-time north of Yamba and poking it’s nose across the border mid/late a’noon. Early NW winds will tend NE and freshen during the day so any surf windows will be limited to surfable back beaches in the PM hours. A small amount of leftover E swell in the inconsistent 2ft range will pad out wave heights through most of the region.

Sunday sees small leftovers in the 2-3ft range from the South in NENSW, smaller in SEQLD. But we’ll be operating under a full Spring N to NE pattern, which is likely to see wind affected surf from first light. N’ly winds then freshen through the day with an approaching front and they are likely to peel your eyelids back in the a’noon. Keep expectations low and head for backbeaches.

Next week (Sep 13) and beyond

Next week looks quite dynamic (again!) and even though there is still some model divergence which will require revision on Mon the basic pattern is now becoming clearer as we follow trends across the major weather models.

The activity will be in the Tasman sea, for the most part.

Mondays outlook is pretty ordinary. Expect an early N to NW flow before he passage of the front brings a  S’ly flow and this is quickly strengthened by high pressure ridging in from a strong high tracking south of Victoria. This high will become slow moving as it straddles Tasmania and a major synoptic feature next week. 

Small bit and pieces are likely to see surf below 1-2ft on Mon for most of the day, with a late increase expected in NENSW, which comes with freshening S’ly winds so is of marginal utility.

A deeper fetch from the front which passed on the weekend produces a pulse of S swell which arrives Tues but by this stage fresh S’ly winds and local windswell will make for diminishing returns on open stretches despite size in the 3-4ft range by close of play in NENSW. Sheltered corners will remain small  due to low swell periods. SEQLD is expected to remain very small through Mon and Tues.

In short, Mon and Tues both look weak and onshore at this stage if you are trying to plan next week.

Tuesday is where model divergence becomes apparent. A SE/NW angled trough in the Tasman is likely to deepen on Tuesday, possibly forming a surface low. GFS model has this low forming off the Central NSW coast, intensifying the onshore flow on the southern flank of the low and seeing rising levels of short range SE/ESE swell through late Tuesday, and Wednesday especially in NENSW.

EC forms a low much further north in the Tasman, close to Norfolk Island, with a very different surf outlook from Tuesday onwards. 

Despite these different outcomes the common asset is the large high slowly drifting east from Tasmanian longitudes towards the South Island, with SE winds being directed through the Tasman sea. 

This will give us SSE to SE swell through the second half of next week. 

Under the GFS scenario we’re likely to see a solid building trend Wed as the low winds up in a favourable position east of the Central NSW coast, depending on windspeeds and position, in the 3-5ft range during the day in NENSW, smaller 3ft in SEQLD, with continuing S’ly winds, although these may tend SW north of the low axis.

The EC scenario sees much smaller SE swell through Wed/Thurs, with a possible increase late Fri and into the weekend as the low fires up near the North Island and generates ESE swell for NSW. 

Despite the model uncertainty the end of next week and into the weekend looks active with SE/ESE swell and likely easing winds as an approaching high brings a weaker pressure gradient. 

There will be revision as models come into alignment so check in the comments for updates over the weekend and Mon for a fresh, full analysis.

Have a great weekend.