South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Sep6)

SE Qld Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Extended E’ly swell event on the radar holding through mid/late this week, favouring Points although periods of unfavourable winds
• Moderate S swell Tues
• Long period refracted S swell Thurs
• S swell favouring NENSW on the radar for next weekend, stay tuned for details

Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Extended E’ly swell event slowly easing into mid/late this week, favouring Points although periods of bad winds
• Solid S swell Mon PM, holding Tuesday, easing Wed with improving winds
• Longer period S swell Wed PM, holding Thursday, easing Fri
• More S swell on the radar for next weekend, stay tuned for details

Recap

E’ly tradewind swell filled in nicely over the weekend, coming up into the 3ft range Sat, though most places were marred by NE winds. Sunday saw a stronger pulse fill in with 3-4ft surf on offer and an a’noon wind change saw W’ly winds clean up surf and offer some unreal conditions. Today has been good to great with 3-4ft of E swell on offer and SW winds, that have tended S’ly and freshened during the a’noon. Plenty of good surf on both beachies and Points.

This week (Sep 6-10)

Plenty to look at on latest ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes. A complex low in the Central Tasman is driving severe gale to storm force winds adjacent to the Central NSW coast and this is whipping up a large, local S swell, currently propagating north and expected to fill in across the Mid North Coast late afternoon, Far North Coast on dark and SEQLD in the cover of night. 

To the East a persistent, broad E’ly tradewind fetch is slowly contracting Eastwards, although windspeeds have been increased along the northern flank of a large high by an area of low pressure. This system has already produced 3 days of surf and is expected to supply a slowly diminishing signal until Thurs/Fri, from a peak today.

This E’ly energy is joined by more strong S’ly energy which will be dominant in NENSW. The quotient of E’ly swell available will depend on how much exposure you have to several strong pulses of S swell expected this week. 

Wave heights from the S will peak through Tuesday, reaching 5-6ft at S facing beaches in NENSW, grading smaller into regional Points and much smaller into protected Bays. Expect 2-3ft of S swell to mix in with the E swell at SEQLD S facing beaches.

 Morning winds should be offshore, as the low and frontal system migrate further E towards New Zealand and pressure gradients ease, although mod/fresh S’lies are still expected through the midday to a’noon session. Seeking shelter from the wind will mean sacrificing size but there should be plenty of fun to be had in more sheltered spots with the E’ly energy on offer.

By Wed, a large high that is now in the Bight will begin nosing out into the Tasman, with more settled wind conditions expected, although a ridge up the QLD coast will still see S’ly winds through the day. Good chance of a morning SW breeze through most of NENSW and into the Southern Gold Coast, less likely on the Sunshine Coast. Wed still looks great fun on the Points and semi-sheltered beaches with combination E and S swells.

Another strong S swell pulse is expected to arrive late Wed across the Mid North Coast, possibly after dark north of Yamba. This swell will be generated by a deep low centred around 50S which is expected to track south of Tasmania, with a slight NE wobble as it transits the Tasman on Tuesday. This is a powerful storm, with storm force winds and a large area of seas in excess of 30ft, and as a result swell periods will be in excess of 15s which will produce some real bathymetric focussing effects on deepwater reefs as  swell trains get tripped up. Based on current modelling I think we can upgrade this swell to 4-6ft sets through late Wed PM and early Thurs at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller 3-5ft away from direct exposure. Bigger 6-8ft surf is possible at select outer bommies and reefs with straight S exposure, not to mention Cloudbreak (8ft+) when it reaches there on Fri.

Thursday winds look really good with light land and seabreezes. The combo of long period S and residual E swell offers up plenty of A-frame beach break potential if you have a spot that can deal with long period energy. Expect size in the 3-4ft range at exposed Northern ends and swell magnets in SEQLD.

The initial winds in the cold fronts sweeping below the Tasman Wed/Thurs are very zonal but more favourable S’ly component winds are in the tail end of the fetch as it transits the Tasman, pushing up as a weak front through early Fri.

A small pulse of S swell is expected later Fri from this source in NENSW, likely in the 3ft range, though there is some model divergence on the strength of the fetch so revision is likely.

Winds look great to end the working week with light offshores tending to light E’ly seabreezes. 

All in all, another great week of waves ahead if you can time the pulses.

This weekend (Sep 11-12)

Small fun waves on offer for this weekend, especially Saturday with leftover S swell and some stray E swell, all up offering some clean 2-3ft beachbreaks with a light W pre-frontal flow expected, possibly tending to NE seabreezes in the a’noon.

Sunday is under a bit more dispute. A front is expected to push a S’ly change up the coast. 

GFS anchors this front to a large and powerful low in the lower Tasman, while EC has a much more modest front pushing into the Tasman.

At any rate, Sunday is likely to start off small with freshening NW winds so if you’ve got plans for a go out best to make them for the early.

Next week (Sep 13) and beyond

We can rule out action from the East next week, and models are diverging on activity from the South, although a very active storm track in the Southern Ocean below Australia suggests more swell activity for the region from this quadrant, details to come.

S swell is expected Mon 13, large according to the GFS scenario, much more modest according to EC.

With so much swell expected this week, we can afford to set our focus on the short term and come back later on Wed and have a look with fresh eyes at next week.