South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Sep1)

SE Qld Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Slight kick in SE/ESE swell late Wed, building Thurs with onshore winds
• Another extended E’ly swell event on the radar, building from Fri, solid on the weekend and into early next week, favouring Points although periods of bad winds
• Small S swell Tues
• Larger S swell Wed PM/Thurs

Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small SE/ESE swell holding Thurs with onshore winds
• Another extended E’ly swell event on the radar, building from Fri, solid on the weekend into next week, favouring Points although periods of bad winds
• Moderate S swell Mon PM, holding Tuesday
• Stronger S swell Wed PM, holding Thursday. easing Fri

Recap

Small, clean surf has been on the menu since Monday. Yesterday saw a declining mix of leftover SE swell and some residual E swell with light winds all day. Good conditions extended into today with clean babyfood peaks on offer, mostly leftover E swell in SEQLD, with a trace of residual SE swell in NENSW. Nothing amazing but well worth a paddle.

This week (Sep1-Sep3)

Spring starts with pattern change and an unstable, dynamic synoptic outlook. A large, multi-centred high pressure system is now moving SE through the Tasman, to join up with a partner cell on the other side of New Zealand, forming a downstream blocking pattern with ramifications for surf. On the New Zealand side of the basin, troughy remnants of  last week’s low pressure cell invigorate a long, broad tradewind fetch extending from the South Pacific into the Northern Tasman and Coral Sea. While this fetch looks a little less impressive and more mobile than it did on Wed it’s still going to be a solid swell producer for the sub-tropical East Coast. 

Winds from this large system begin to affect the region through Thursday with a mod/fresh E to SE flow developing through the day after light morning winds.

Backing up a step, we’ll have some small levels of ESE swell in the water through Thurs from the Cook Strait fetch, topping out around 2-3ft at swell magnets and exposed coasts in NENSW, smaller 2ft in SEQLD. This is likely to offer some babyfood peelers at more sheltered Points as the expected ESE winds begin to freshen during the day.

ESE swell from the Cook Strait fetch eases down in the mix through Fri as tradewind swell from the South Pacific/Coral Sea source starts to build. This should see 2-3ft surf in NENSW, 2ft in SEQLD through the morning, build into the 3-4ft range during the PM. Winds will be a problem as the large downstream high directs a straight E’ly flow onshore. Unless you have a high tolerance for onshore winds, you’ll need to tuck in behind a headland for some protected conditions.

This weekend (Sep 4-5)

Slightly more clarity for the weekend now, although with a dynamic outlook and model divergence it’s still likely we’ll need to finesse timing etc etc on Fri. 

Punchy E swell is in the water both days, with plenty of size expected-in the 3-5ft range- and with the straight E direction there’ll be a very even spread of wave heights across the region and into different coastal alignments.

Winds will be the problem, both days. 

With a trough moving offshore Sat, forming a closed low off the Far South or Gippsland coast a S’ly change is expected during Sat on the South Coast of NSW. Unfortunately that change is not expected until Sun a’noon on the Mid North Coast, late Sun on the Far North Coast and after dark in SEQLD.

Which leaves close to a full weekend of N’lies to deal with. 

These winds look lighter on Sunday, perhaps offering a chance of light onshore waves at the Points if you can’t find a backbeach.

Otherwise, it’ll be back beaches at ten paces both days. Potentially firing if the sand is right. 

Next week (Sep6) and beyond

As for the weekend, we have a bit more clarity now on what is shaping up to be a very dynamic week. Major revision is still on the cards however so keep an open mind and a realisation that error bars will need to be expanded until we get more model agreement.

Our South Pacific tradewind fetch contracts Eastwards through Sun/Mon, chugging away, but with a slowly diminishing signal expected through next week, although it’s expected to be persistent right through to the mid-late next week.

ENE energy from this source is now on track to be overshadowed by strong S through SSE swell next week, more notably in NENSW. 

First S swell is from the weekend’s small but strong low. That’s expected to see 20 ft seas being generated in the Central Tasman, and gales in a compact area adjacent to the NSW Coast. That produces a mix of ENE tradewind swell and a late arriving raggedy S swell for Mon, with the tradeswell in the 3-4ft range and S swell showing late in the 3-5ft+ range at S facing beaches across NENSW. We’ll need to finesse timing, but at this stage it looks to arrive late a’noon on the Mid North Coast, possibly showing on dark on the Far North Coast. 

Plenty of strong S swell in the water Tuesday, mixed with E’ly tradewind swell. Expect size in the 4-5ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW, grading smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD, where E’ly tradewind swell is still likely to be the dominant swell train. Fresh S’ly winds develop along the region so you’ll need to find some protection out of the wind.

Wed sees leftover S swell ease, with residual energy from the E mixed in, providing surf in the 3ft range across the region. Strong S through SSE winds limit surfing to protected Points.

Surf is likely to build strongly again in the late PM from a  source fetch Tues AM where severe gale to potentially storm force SSW to S winds track nor-east into the Tasman sea tied to a deep low which becomes slow moving as it nears New Zealand. 

Which leaves Thurs as a day of very solid S to SSE swell (and S winds!). Size is likely in the 6-8ft range at S exposed spots, grading smaller into more protected locations and topping out around 3-4ft in SEQLD. A window of SW winds is possible early before S to SE winds again freshen.

The latter part of next week sees easing swells from the S and E and at this stage offers the best bet for clean conditions as an approaching front brings W to NW winds on Fri, with easing size from all sources. Likely 4-6ft early at S facing beaches in NENSW, easing through the day, but we’ll need to come back to that number on Fri.

Phew!

 Longer term and the Tasman sea remains unstable with the high pressure belt remaining at a more southerly latitude than is seasonally expected. That suggests more potential for swell from the Eastern quadrant, although models do expect a quieter period going into next weekend.

Check back Fri for the latest.