South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 14th July)

SE Qld Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small easing swell Thurs
• Minor N'ly windswell building Thurs PM, peaking Fri across the Gold Coast
• Tiny weekend with gusty offshores
• Small S'ly swell Mon
• Bigger S'ly swell Thurs, easing Fri

Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small, inconsistent, easing SE and E swells Thurs, tiny by Fri
• Minor flush of S'ly swell late Fri, easing Sat
• Minor N'ly windswell in the Far North Fri
• Gusty winds from the N/NW (Thurs), NW (Fri), W/NW (Sat) then easing W/SW (Sun)
• Steadily building S'ly swell Sun, peaking early Mon then easing
• Strong S'ly swell building Wed (with some wind), peaking Thurs (with less wind)

Recap

The swell’s held in really nicely over the last two days, with 4ft sets in Northern NSW on Tuesday easing to 3ft today, thanks to a secondary pulse of E/SE energy today (tail end of the same source that provided the weekend’s waves) that wasn’t picked up in Monday’s notes, though this is in addition to a forecast SE swell (mainly favouring the MNC) from a polar low south of NZ on the weekend. SE Qld saw a little less size, holding 2-3ft Tuesday and a fraction smaller today. Conditions were clean for much of Tuesday but developing N/NW winds today have bumped up quite a few spots (following an early period of light NW winds).

This week (July 13 - 16)

Smaller surf is expected for the next couple of days as all of our current swells ease back in size.

Exposed beaches in Northern NSW should see rare 2-3ft sets on Thursday, but it’ll be much smaller throughout SE Qld and size will gradually fade through the day. 

We’ll also see tricky conditions as winds strengthen from the N/NW on Thursday (possible early NW periods) in response to an approaching series of vigorous fronts. They’ll be strongest with increasing southerly latitude, and will veer NW on Friday then W/NW late. 

Although these gusty cross-offshore tending offshore winds will accompany generally small residual swells - including a small late Friday pulse of south swell from a cut-off low south of Tasmania yesterday - we may also see some minor N’ly windswell across the Gold and Tweed Coasts. Despite the fetch being N/NW (not a great alignment), it’ll be stationary within our immediate swell window and this should build small waves during Thursday to a peak on Friday around 2ft+ at exposed north facing swell magnets. 

Probably not anything to work around though.. it’ll just be a novelty to have peaky waves running down the coast instead of up… a goofy grommet’s delight!

This weekend (July 17 - 18)

Not much surf is expected anywhere on Saturday.

Whatever N’ly swell we pick up Friday will be all gone by the weekend, brushed flat by westerly gales pushing off the continent. The SE and E swells will be but a distant memory too.

Late in the day and overnight the storm track will shift further to the east, allowing SW gales to exit eastern Bass Strait. However, relative to Northern NSW, at this stage the earliest sign of even a slight southerly component in the broadscale fetch alignment won’t be until the early hours of Sunday morning, so the dawn patrol Sunday is looking to be small everywhere.

Northern NSW should pick up building sideband energy from this developing W/SW tending SW fetch through the afternoon, and south facing beaches south of Byron (specifically, the MNC, which usually does the best under these patterns) should pick up 4-5ft sets by late in the day. The steep southerly swell direction will result in much smaller surf elsewhere. 

Conditions should be OK early with moderating W/SW winds though a SW thru' S/SW trend is likely through this day. This is important as it’s somewhat cross-shore at south swell magnets, so locations offering clean conditions will be much smaller in size. 

However I don’t think we’ll see much size in SE Qld on Sunday, only a couple of stray feet at exposed south swell magnets and exposed northern ends of the Gold Coast mid-late afternoon at best. 

More on this in Wednesday’s update.

Next week (July 19 onwards)

The weekend’s frontal passage will exit our swell window by Monday morning so we’ll see a peak in S’ly swell across Northern NSW (4-5ft south swell magnets south of Byron, smaller elsewhere). 

SE Qld should pick up a little size on Monday, owing to a little more east in the position of the storm track (allowing the swell direction to be a shade more S/SE). But, it’ll still be tiny across the outer points, and best suited to south swell magnets and exposed northern ends. 

Everywhere should be nice and clean with light offshore winds. Wave heights will then ease rapidly into Tuesday.

The next major frontal progression will push through from Tuesday afternoon onwards, and this looks much better formed with a proper extension to polar latitudes, allowing for a longer, broader fetch through our southern swell window. This increases the size potential but also the longevity of the associated swell event. 

Starting off small, wave heights will build steadily through Wednesday across Northern NSW, peaking Thursday with 4-6ft sets at south facing beaches south of Byron (smaller elsewhere). Initially gusty W/SW tending SW winds should become lighter for the peak of the swell on Thursday. 

Across SE Qld we’ll see a little more size than the previous south swell, maybe 2ft across outer points though bigger at exposed south swell magnets in the 4ft range, with favourable conditions. 

I’ll firm up the specifics in more detail on Friday. See you then!