South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 25th June)

SE Qld Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small peaky mix of swells this weekend, nothing special
• Freshening S'ly tending SE winds from Sun, strongest Mon/Tues but without much size in the surf department
• Building E'ly swell from Tues PM onwards, holding through to next weekend, fun across the regional points
• Best waves of the period likely to be later next week

Northern NSW Forecast  Summary (tl;dr)

• Small S'ly swell for later Sat/Sun and then again Mon but local winds are tricky
• Better S'ly swell Tues/Wed but local winds will spoil most spots at some point (more confidence on this in Mon's update)
• Strong building E'ly swell from Tues PM onwards, plus a brief S/SE groundswell Thurs, so plenty of waves at most coasts
• Latter part of next week looks to offer the best winds plus a mix of good swells

Recap

Small waves for the last few days with winds out of the north, strongest across Northern NSW.

This weekend (June 26 - 27)

The overall synoptic pattern for the weekend is for a shallow southerly wind change to envelop the coast as a broad coastal trough pushes across the region. This will probably result in a haphazard arrival time across the region (i.e. not hitting southern locations first, and northern locations last), however it’s likely parts of SE Qld will see early NW winds, whilst Northern NSW will probably around to the SW early morning, trending southerly through the day. 

The southerly flow will become more established on Sunday as a ridge moves in behind the trough, which will initially ease wind strengths across the Mid North Coast and parts of the Northern Rivers, but accentuate the airstream north from about Byron into SE Qld coasts.

As for surf, I’m gonna be upfront - I haven’t looked at the models all week. So, the small NE swell showing on the model runs for SE Qld tomorrow (2ft open beaches) is a low confident event, as I can’t find any corroborating data to support it. It’s likely locally sourced so expect small slow peaky beaches at best, with smaller surf south from Byron. Certainly don’t get your hopes up.

We do however have a new southerly swell on the way, in fact there’s a couple inbound over the coming days. 

The first is due into the Mid North Coast sometime Saturday morning, and should peak later that afternoon across Northern NSW with inconsistent 2-3ft sets at south swell magnets (smaller earlier, and tiny elsewhere). With the wind swinging to the south, conditions won't be great at those spots seeing the most size, so it's not worth getting too excited about.

A very slow easing trend from the south is expected on Sunday though it should be supplemented into the afternoon by a secondary south swell from a small fetch of W/SW gales exiting eastern Bass Strait on Saturday. A similar size is likely at south swell magnets but expect a delay across northern regions.

However, I’m not expecting much size from the south in SE Qld this weekend, other than a handful of south swell magnets and exposed northern ends that may pick up a couple of stray feet late Saturday and through Sunday (they’ll be wind affected anyway). 

Elsewhere, and there’s a nice looking band of trades out near Fiji at the moment, but it’s aimed up into the Coral Sea and South Pacific, away from our region. We’ll see some minor trade swell filling in around Sunday, but there won’t be a lot of size, strength or consistency - it’ll mainly favour SE Qld and Far Northern NSW with peaky 2ft+ sets.

In general, keep your expectations low at most coasts this weekend.

Next week (June 28 onwards)

We have a series of decent south swells on the way for next week, but the wind looks iffy for those spots likely to enjoy such energy.

First up - Monday and Tuesday should se a continuation of Sunday’s small trade swell, with slow, peaky 2ft+ sets north from Byron (smaller to the south). 

A secondary south swell (trailing the late Sat/Sun event) is expected to push across Northern NSW overnight Sunday, providing 2-3ft+ waves at south swell magnets south of the border for Monday. Unfortunately, a mainly moderate to fresh southerly breeze will maintain below average conditions at those beaches picking up the most size. 

Elsewhere it’ll be a lot smaller, including SE Qld. The outer Gold Coast points might pick up a foot or two of mixed swells from the south and east, plus some minor SE windswell from a developing ridge across the Qld coast but it’s not worth getting excited about. 

A strong frontal passage below Tasmania over the weekend will drive SW gales through our far south swell window. This will generate a bigger, stronger southerly groundswell that’s expected to build across Northern NSW on Tuesday, before easing Wednesday. South swell magnets south of Byron could pick up 4-5ft+ sets though again it’ll be much smaller elsewhere and we won’t see much more than a foot or two across most SE Qld open beaches and semi-exposed points. 

Local winds look a little tricky on Tuesday with fresh SE breezes as the coastal ridge reaches a peak in strength. The models are suggesting a weakening of wind speeds across Northern NSW on Wednesday but I'm not particularly confident on this right now.

The rest of the forecast period is very dynamic and complex, but ultimately we have a stack of swell on the way. 

Our southern swell window will remain active early next week - the parent polar low to our Tues/Wed south swell will undergo reintensification south of New Zealand on Monday (see below), generating a brief new long period S/SE groundswell that’s due into across Northern NSW overnight Wednesday peaking early Thursday. South swell magnets (south of Byron) could see a brief period of long-lined 4-5ft sets, though winds still look problematic for exposed spots and the sheltered southern ends and points will be much smaller. Easing size is then due through Friday.

SE Qld will pick up some of this groundswell but to be honest it’s not a high priority event as it’ll be even smaller again, plus very inconsistent thanks to the distant source. 

But!

Our eastern swell window will also have become active thanks to a confluence of the polar low below New Zealand, a building ridge through the Tasman Sea and a deepening low pressure trough south of Fiji, that will strengthen south-east tending easterly winds across the Northern Tasman from Tuesday morning onwards. 

This will slowly build wave heights from later Tuesday (or more likely Wednesday) onwards, and should result in a sustained round of easterly groundswell holding through into next weekend.

At this stage we should see a steady undercurrent of 3-5ft surf across most regions, though the upper end of this size range will be found in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW. And, if the current model guidance pans out regarding a deep low pressure system north of of New Zealand, then we may be able to add a couple of feet - or more! - to this size range for the weekend, as longer period energy pushes in from afar. But that’s a long time away. 

Anyway, have a great weekend.. see you Monday!