South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by James Casey (issued Friday 18th June)

Outlook (tl;dr)

• Solid S swell for the weekend reaching a peak late Saturday and early Sunday with W/SW winds strongest for the MNC, lighter for N NSW and SE QLD
• Biggest for the MNC in that 8-10ft range. N NSW in that 6ft+ range and SE QLD receiving just a fraction of the peak size as the swell is too south
• Reinforcement of SE swell for Monday morning with waves up around 4-5ft for the MNC and N NSW, arriving a bit later in the morning for SE QLD
• A final pulse of SE swell around the 3ft+ mark on Wednesday before the swells eases. Winds will be out of the NW early tending more NE as the day goes on.

Recap

Yesterday was small to tiny with W/NW winds it wasn’t much to get excited about. South of the border was a little bigger but again nothing special. 

Today is tiny to flat. Winds were light and offshore early but already swinging around to the N. The S swell built a little this afternoon but the biggest swell is yet to come. 

The weekend 

The Tasman low is starting to fire up with W winds shifting around to the SW this evening as the southwestern flank of the low really fires up, strengthening and broadening with gale-force S/SE winds surging up the coast into this evening. 

Since my update on Wednesday it looks like the peak will reach much the same height but either side of this spike it won’t be quite as large as the most intense winds ease a little after the peak.

The peak height will be around the 8-10ft mark for the MNC on Saturday afternoon while N NSW sees waves up around the 6ft+ mark for early Sunday morning. SE QLD will only see a fraction of this as the swell is too S. Waves will slowly ease on Sunday for the MNC and in the late afternoon for the MNC. 

Winds will be gusty out of the W/SW all day tomorrow (Saturday) with stronger winds for the MNC. Winds will turn more SW into tomorrow evening. Sunday we will see winds out of the SW early but tending more S/SW as the day goes on. Southern corners will be the pick for the weekend.

Next week

The swell will still be solid on Monday morning as a pulse of SE swell arrives in the morning for the MNC and N NSW a little later for SE QLD. Expect 4-6ft waves for the MNC and N NSW while SE QLD fairs better with this swell as there is more of an easterly component in the swell. 

This SE pulse is thanks to a strong fetch of SE winds west of NZ’s South Island as a ridge squeezes the isobars of the low. 

Winds will be SW early but shift around to the SE for SE QLD and S for south of the border. This means you will once again need to stick to southern corners. 

Tuesday we will see the swell ease temporarily down to the 3ft to possibly 4ft mark before another SE pulse arrives on Wednesday kicking things up to 3ft+. This pulse will be from a little fetch of winds off the southwestern tip of NZ’s South Island. 

Winds will be SW early on Tuesday but shift around to the SE. Wednesday looks ilke it’ll be a bumpy day of waves with winds light and E/SE early, swinging around to the E/NE as a mid latitude low approaches from the west. 

As the mid latitude low gets closer there’ll be an infeed of northeasterlies creating a little windswell ahead of a series of mid latitude lows moving in from the west. There also looks to be a solid S groundswell thanks to a ridge in the Southern Ocean. That’s all a fair way out so we’ll unpack it at the beginning of next week.