E swell lingering with a mixed bag of winds
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by James Casey (issued Friday 19th March)
Best Days: Biggest on Sunday into Monday, cleanest on Wednesday.
Outlook:
- E trade swell to build towards the weekend pulsing Sunday into Monday morning. Slow downward trend into the new week.
- Cleaner winds for SE QLD and N NSW early tomorrow, not so good for Mid N Coast. From Sunday onwards winds will be E/NE and fresh to strong. Brace yourself for a bumpy to choppy start of the week.
- Local NE swell peaking Wednesday afternoon for the Mid N Coast and adding to the lingering E swell.
- Wednesday looks to have the cleanest conditions ahead of a S change.
- Local S swell and S winds to end the week
Recap
Some decent waves around yesterday with most locations seeing offshore winds at some point during the day if not there were southern corners to tuck up into. The swell was a nice 2-3ft yesterday bigger for the Mid N Coast. Today we have bigger waves across the region with nice winds early for SE QLD and most of N NSW, stormier for the Mid N Coast.
Into the weekend
Generally speaking the swell has jumped up in size today, peaking this morning and beginning a slow downward trend into tomorrow.
The E/SE pulse was generated by strong E/SE winds west of NZ’s North Island associated with a trough interacting with a broad ridge of high pressure extended over the Tasman.
Another pulse is due late Saturday into Sunday morning. I’d expect a bit more out of this one too as a more traditional E trade swell pushes in across the entire region. The same ridge of high pressure will be whipping up the winds but this second pulse will bring larger waves due to the longer fetch as well as stronger, more persistent and more widespread winds generated to the NE of the NZ’s North Island.
I’d expect a more even spread with this E swell, peaking up around the 5-6ft mark on Sunday (more like Monday morning for the Sunshine Coast), potentially a little bigger for the Mid N Coast. The swell will then begin a slow downward trend from Monday morning onwards into the new week.
Let's get into the nitty gritty of the winds though. There’s a bit of difference between coasts for the next few days but from Sunday until Tuesday it’s basically onshore, E/NE winds across the board.
For the Mid N Coast today I’d expect a split with the lower half of the coast copping strong E winds for the remainder of today. Further north around Coffs Harbour winds could become light and variable later today but it’s not looking great with strong E/SE winds already set in, maybe a late session if you’re lucky.
Tomorrow, there’s a chance the trough could move far enough south so the entire coast sees light offshore winds early. Port Macquarie will see strong NE winds at some point during the day but Coffs could enjoy a morning of light, variable offshores before an E/NE flow fills in.
For N NSW and SE QLD today winds will tend more E/SE. Tomorrow expect light and variable winds early before an easterly flow moves, more NE for N NSW and more SE for SE QLD.
Next Week
As mentioned earlier the E swell will linger, on a steady decline but hanging in until well into the middle of the week. Let’s call it 4-6ft on Monday, 3-4ft on Tuesday and 2-3ft on Wednesday.
There will be an additional NE swell added to the mix, but only really for the Mid N Coast and less so for N NSW, on Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. This will create a little bump in wave heights up around the 3ft mark, especially for NE swell magnets.
This NE swell will be caused by an infeed of NE winds ahead of a trough and a subsequent S change.
Winds will shift offshore on Wednesday creating nice clean conditions across the entire forecast region. Thursday looks little iffy at this stage with offshores early but on onshore flow returning late in the day before the S change arrives on Friday.
This S change will bring a modest S swell with it but it’s a fair way out so let’s tackle the ins and outs of that later on.
Comments
Bowraville has picked up 208mm in the last 6 hours since 9am. That's on top of 137mm yesterday and 63mm the day before.
Utungun has recorded 200mm since 9am today, plus 189mm y'day and 92mm the day before.
Aldavilla has recorded 66mm since 9am today, plus 244mm y'day and 37mm the day before.
Upper Rollands Plains has recorded 210mm since 9am today, plus 179mm y'day and 33mm the day before.
Major flood warnings out for many rivers. And there's an evacuation order out for low-lying areas of Port Macquarie.
"The Nambucca River at Bowraville is likely to exceed the major flood level (10.10) metres at around 04:30 pm Friday. Further rises are possible."
Thanks Ben.. Some serious rain on the MNC I reckon you scored up your way today !
Yep, very soggy. 400mm at my place last 48hrs.
Can you paint me a picture of what that is like. People in my area lose there shit over 10-20mm through the day.
Can you even hear the person next to on the couch if you got a tin roof?
It’s both exciting and worrying. After years spent in the desert I love a good rainfall and get joyful at the idea of a deluge but there are very real concerns. I built my parents a house on a near 30 degree slope ,clay on shale prone to slippage. Despite engineering it to spec with piers to the bedrock I still freak when I watch the endless rain pumping down. Always afraid they’ll ride their house on a land slump down into the valley a hundred metres down the hillside. They’re currently cut off from town with no power or phone .
I’m on the coast from them and there’s roads closed and some people having a hard time of it . It’s pretty cool to drive around town and watch all the waterfalls and rivers appear. The ocean goes brown from the runoff and there’s all kinds of unpleasant things floating around out there - think livestock carcasses and huge trees. Not to mention the sea life these kind of events attract such as the good ol’ bull sharks. These rivers push all kinds of interesting sand formations into the coast within a matter of hours.
Downpours are spent chilling and enjoying the spectacle. At times you’ve got to shout to be heard above the sound of rain on the tin roof. This is interspersed with sorties about the property to make sure that everything is handling ok. Dig out trenches to route water away from the house. If there’s any weakness in your home the rain and wind will expose it.
Good time to binge watch a series until the power goes out.
As long as everyone is safe and shit doesn’t get destroyed, I really enjoy these extremes of weather. Be it flood, cyclone, heat or wind they make me feel alive.
I could be wrong but I think Bowraville received something like 270mm in the entirety of 2019.
surfed palm beach this arvo, haven't been there for 5 years, amazing whats happening with all the development etc, no shortage of "chic" hangouts lol
Had a beer at Burleigh on the headland and watched the sundowner, never loses its charm, plenty of nice lines coming through
Serious floods on the MNC, Hastings River at Wauchope predicted to go 2m above the previous record.
Edit. Models must have been going ape shit, looks like it won’t get that high. Thank fck.
Staggering rainfall totals.
Delward (Camden Haven River) - 398mm since 9am y'day, 614mm in last three days.
Redoak (Camden Haven River) - 370mm since 9am y'day, 599mm in last three days.
Utungun (Nambucca River) - 239mm since 9am y'day, 520mm in last three days.
Koree Island (Hastings River) - 295mm since 9am y'day, 504mm in last three days.
Mooral Creek (Lower Manning) - 290mm since 9am y'day, 492mm in last three days.
Lake Cathie (Camden Haven River) - 303mm since 9am y'day, 476mm in last three days.
Killabakh (Lower Manning) - 306mm since 9am y'day, 475mm in last three days.
Cabbage Tree Mtn (Myall Lake) - 194mm since 9am y'day, 402mm in last three days.
Came home a day early from holidays after seeing the forecast and I reckon I got home by about an hour. Both exits from my place now flooded. Not going anywhere for awhile.
my wife has a conference at Port on Mon, was going to drive down from here.
anyone down there able to give a yay or nay to this prospect?
Trying to get to Sydney myself. Looks like the freeway is ok . Bit of a detour at Coopernook.
Depends on the rain between now and then. Highway was closed earlier between Kempsey and Port...alternative side roads are a metre under water with cars floating down the street. Hastings river is about to hit a record high and most businesses in the CBD are currently closed.
Looks like it’s back to cutting up mangoes then....
I want to lodge a complaint about these shit waves and onshore winds.
Current situation...
https://www.portnews.com.au/story/7175466/53-year-flood-record-smashed-a...
cheers crg.
Jeezus
Incredibly devastating. Apparently a young couple who were meant to get married today too. To rub salt in the wounds as they were away getting ready for their big day they put all their pets inside from the weather. All gone.
Oh man so heavy :(
Free ride, even if the roads are open could still be some venue issues. Parts of the CBD loses power when the river is up.
Delward (Camden Haven River) has had 738mm in the last three days. Redoak (Hastings River) 731mm, Comboyne 714mm, Koree Island, 662mm.
How's the trough line today - also there's apparently another deluge coming from the west on Tuesday.
Today is as wet as anything so far around here with the added bonus of high winds. Trees going down everywhere. Power out again.
Looks like I picked the wrong day to give up Fentanyl.
surf's been pumping here for days with flukey winds around the trough line but today is a straight out no surf day.
76mm at Pottsville, 75mm at Myocum in the last 2.5 hours.
Pretty wild extremes. Less than 18 months ago we were seeing unheard of dryness and bushfire threat. Now what looks like history making rainfall/flood levels.
89mm in three hours at Yelgun.
Tweed Coast Road is closed at Cudgen due to flooding.
Tweed Coast away down to single lane about an hour ago coming back from Tumbulgum.
Cool tweed golf course has had close to 300 mill since Friday afternoon , both courses closed Sunday due to being unplayable, ducks are loving it .
Forecast for here is claiming that it’s still going to continue at this rate .
Crazy stuff.
Looking on track to score over a metre of rain in one week. Over a wide spread area. Hopefully some good sand formations when we eventually get on the other side of it.
Had 30mm in 30 minutes this morning, it was pretty full on.
And driving up and down the motorway between Ballina and Hastings before lunch was pretty dodgy at times.
From Cairns to Beachport, what a system!
Looking more like the flood version of the most recent fire season.
Be safe everyone.
Evacuation order for Pitt Town Bottoms.
Did they start any construction on the Wisemans Ferry Pool ?