South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by James Casey (issued Wednesday 17th March)

Best Days: Friday early for everywhere but Port Macquarie, Saturday early for everywhere but the Sunshine Coast

Outlook

• Thursday will see a fading long period S swell from polar low for Mid N Coast and N NSW
• New mid period ESE swell to build from Thursday and then ebb and pulse into the weekend. Peaking Friday and then Sunday
• Gradual downward trend from Monday onwards
• Winds generally onshore with a few windows of offshores but you’ll need to look below for more detail

Recap

Yesterday SE QLD had SW to SE winds meaning decent waves for the points. The swell was about 3ft out of the ESE and with SW winds early it was clean. Winds tended more S to SE later in the day causing conditions to deteriorate a bit in the afternoon. Today winds were more onshore with an E/NE component and the swell started to ease. 

For N NSW and the MNC yesterday winds were out of the S too SE. Generally conditions were good early with SW winds but deteriorated as the day went on. Waves were around the 3-4ft mark earlier but easing throughout the day. This morning waves were around the 3ft mark a bit smaller for Coffs early but larger for Port as a long period S swell filled in. Winds were onshore for Port Macquarie, Yamba and  Ballina but workable for Coffs.

Into the Weekend

We have a dynamic end to the week with a S swell from a polar low filling in today and then fading tomorrow. Meanwhile, a mid period E/SE swell fills in on Friday before a stronger E trade swell builds into Sunday. 

The long period S swell from the polar low began filling in today reaching Port Macquarie early but taking a while to fill in for Coffs Harbour and N NSW. I’d expect it to fill in throughout today and into tomorrow with the peak of 3-5ft waves for the Mid N Coast and 3-4ft for N NSW. It’ll be mixed in with a building mid period E/SE swell that’ll pulse and build into the weekend.

This new ESE swell has been generated by winds propelled by a trough interacting with a ridge of high pressure out in the Tasman. It looks set in too, as this high remains fairly stationary sitting over the nations SE.

The first pulse of E/SE swell is being generated by strong winds west of NZ’s North Island. The second E pulse has a bit more promise due to it’s longer fetch. It is whipping around NZ’s North Island with stronger, more persistent and more widespread winds generated to the NE of the North Island. 

This E/SE swell will really build on Thursday into Friday peaking at 4-6ft for both the Mid N Coast and N NSW Friday morning, a larger stormier 6ft+ for the lower Mid N Coast. SE QLD will see less of this swell as it wasn’t quite as well aimed so it’ll be more like 3-5ft and the odd larger one for spots more exposed to SE swells. 

The next pulse will fare better for SE QLD. A more traditional E trade swell will begin filling in late on Saturday peaking on Sunday. I’d expect waves up around the 5-6ft mark, potentially a little bigger around the Mid N Coast but it’ll be a more even spread than the previous E/SE pulse. 

Now that all sounds fairly promising but I haven’t mentioned the winds. 

Generally speaking for the first pulse winds will be onshore and stronger south of the trough and lighter and with windows of offshore winds north of the trough. 

On Thursday the divide will be around Ballina with more onshore (SE) winds further south and more S/SE winds further north. 

Friday will see the trough shift further S, with strong onshore winds for Port Macquarie but lighter offshores early for everywhere N. Winds will swing onshore later in the day but for the most part they won’t be too strong. 

Saturday will see lighter offshore winds for just about everywhere except the Sunshine Coast before fresh to strong E/NE winds build into the afternoon. 

Sunday is looking the windiest with widespread E winds, a bit more NE further south and bit more SE further north.  

Generally speaking mornings will be better, nothing out of the usual. For afternoon surfs it's best if you go into it expecting choppy to bumpy onshore conditions. You might luck into a few lumpy sessions either side of a squall but generally speaking afternoons are not going to be as nice. 

Next Week

Next week the swell will begin to ease but winds will be a bit better with lighter offshores on Tuesday and Wednesday. Monday is looking onshore and ugly.

The blocking high that was sitting over Tassie for much of the week will begin moving E as the coastal trough deepens and shifts further S.

Winds will swing around to the N/NE and strengthen towards Wednesday afternoon/Thursday ahead of a cooler W/SW change.

Waves will start at 4-5ft out of the E on Monday but ease towards 2-3ft and more out of the E/NE but the time winds swing around to the W/SW with the cooler change. 

Anyway we are getting a bit ahead of ourselves now, let’s keep an eye on things and go into more detail on next week’s waves on Friday.