South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 12th March)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Not much happening over the weekend, though exposed beaches north from Yamba should have small beachies Sat
• Gusty S'ly change developing Mon, late kick in S'ly swell
• Extended run of S/SE swell and wind for much of next week, ideal for outer points

Recap: Small surf for the last few days with minor energy out of the east providing rideable waves to the swell magnets. Variable conditions, onshore in many places but light variable/offshore pockets here and there (often associated with thunderstorms).

This weekend (Mar 13 - 14)

Doesn’t look terribly exciting in the surf department for the weekend.

We’ve got a synoptic pattern reminiscent of spring at the moment, with a high in the eastern Tasman, a deepening inland trough and an approaching change to the west all combining to muscle up a northerly flow against the east coast.

SE Qld and Far Northern NSW should remain relatively light on Saturday, freshening through Sunday, but locations south from about Ballina will be at risk of freshening winds both days.

But, it doesn’t matter much as there’s been little swell generating activity in either of our swell windows over the last few days. Exposed beaches may pick up lazy waves from a couple of meagre sources (including a weak ridge through the northern Tasman Sea). Keep your expectations low.

Model guidance also has a minor long period S'ly swell in the mix for Northern NSW (0.4m at 16s at Coffs Harbour overnight Saturday), but as I'm time-limited to hindcast the source, I'm really not able to verify whether it'll translate to any notable size at south facing beaches south of Byron. Though, with this modeled swell having originated from a very distant source, and based on today's size throughout Victoria and Tasmania, chances are slim of anything worthwhile. 

A trough pushing into the Tasman Sea on Sunday will strengthen southerly gales across Southern NSW, but they’re not expected to reach the lower Mid North Coast until late Sunday. There is an outside chance that the slow evolution of this system may allow forerunners to arrive ahead of the wind change (likely south from Port Mac at best, mid-late arvo onwards) but it’s a low confidence event so don’t get your hopes up for anything worthwhile.

Next week (Mar 15 onwards)

The outlook for next week is very dynamic, but the short story is that there’s likely to be plenty of swell - and probably wind - on the way.

Sunday’s trough will push north overnight and probably form a closed low off the Mid North Coast by Monday morning, reasonably close to the coast. At this stage model guidance is in pretty good agreement that it’ll meander throughout the western half of the Tasman Sea for a few days, potentially retreating back to the south. It could also end up becoming an East Coast Low but it's too early to be sure. 

At the same time, a strong southerly change will push up across the Northern NSW coast throughout Monday, reaching the Gold Coast after lunch and the Sunshine Coast late in the day. Building local southerly swells in its wake will be terribly wind affected at south facing beaches (though could reach 4-6ft by late afternoon), and protected spots will be much smaller due to the initial low period.

There’s certainly a chance for a small late surf across the outer Gold Coast points, and the semi-exposed points in Northern NSW may offer options through the afternoon but it’s more likely that Tuesday will offer better options at these locations once the wavelength has drawn out a little. Winds will still be fresh from the southern quadrant, with an outside chance for early SW in a few spots, and likely tending S/SE through the day, but with 5-6ft sets at south facing beaches south of Byron, there should be more than enough size for the points. 

In SE Qld, outer points should manage 2-3ft sets, with bigger, windier options at exposed northern ends and south facing beaches.

The outlook from here is a little tricky, as the models are not really picking up the finer details of the evolving trough-cum-low scenario very well. This is not altogether unexpected, thanks to the complex atmospheric dynamics and its proximity to the mainland. But it’s likely that strong surf with fresh winds from the S/SE will persist until next weekend, which suggests an extended run of fun summeresque sand-bottom point break surf.

My only concern is that the low tracks to the south and pushes close to the Southern NSW coast, which would be outside of our swell window (and result in a drop in size later Wed/Thurs/Fri). But, let’s wait and see how things look on Monday. 

Also worth mentioning is a strong Southern Ocean low passing underneath Tasmania on Sunday and Monday, that should provide a decent pulse of southerly groundswell, later Wednesday at south facing beaches south of Byron, maybe an inconsistent 4ft.

Anyway, James will get you back up to speed on Monday - fingers crossed for a return to form, from late Monday or Tuesday onwards.

Have a great weekend!