South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by James Casey (issued Wednesday 3rd March)

Best Days: For Mid N Coast, Thursday morning 3ft S swell with light WSW winds and then the afternoon with NE winds so S swell magnets the pick. Saturday solid swell but strong S winds, SE QLD getting less of wave action. Sunday and Monday solid swell hanging in there with better winds. 

Outlook

• Longer period S and E swells peaked in the past few days but the S swell will linger around that 3ft mark until Friday
• Strong S change Friday/Saturday bringing a pulse of large S swell for the weekend. Filling in on Friday evening for Mid N Coast
• S swell peaks on Saturday, ebbing and pulsing into Sunday around the 6-8ft mark for Mid N Coast and N NSW, 4ft for Gold Coast, 2-3ft for Sunshine Coast

Recap: Long range, lully E swell filled in across the entire region, but was best for SE QLD, reaching 3-4ft easing to 3ft today. Winds were NE, NW and then S so there were options but you had to be flexible. All in all the swell was a little disjointed but it was better than being flat. 

For N NSW and the Mid N Coast that E swell was more like 3-4ft and a S swell filled in today adding a bit of extra push. Winds weren’t great for N NSW today with plenty of E in it while The Mid N Coast had lighter offshores in the morning before winds swung onshore. 

Towards The End of The Week

Overnight and into tomorrow morning this S swell will peak at 3-4ft, even up around 5ft for S swell magnets. Winds will be light and SW for the Mid N Coast but have more SE in it for N NSW and SE QLD. Winds will go light and NE for the Mid N Coast later in the day so could be some options around. 

Friday morning will be the last of this swell and with light W/NW winds there could be a nice little window of opportunity for a nice range of options. Winds will strengthen out of the NE as the day goes on so get out there early as the swell will really drop off and winds will ruin the cleaner morning conditions. 

Into The Weekend 

You probably could have guessed it, yep, another S change will be moving through. At this stage it looks to be moving through in the afternoon on Friday for the Mid N Coast and the evening for N NSW. Meanwhile SE QLD will see the change move through overnight into Saturday.

Before we get into this second S change of the week let’s explore the chance of any N/NE swell from Tropical Cyclone Niran. At this stage it remains very unlikely. It is too far north and out of our swell window. On top of this winds are aimed N/NW, away from the coast. There’s no supporting ridge and it gets pushed away too quickly because of this next S change. 

So yeah back to the S change, which will create a new solid swell, especially for the Mid N Coast and N NSW, hitting 6-8ft. The SE QLD will miss the bulk of the swell but it will make it up there, reaching 4ft for the Gold Coast, a little bigger at S swell magnets, and 2-3ft for the Sunshine Coast, which always fairs the worst with S swells. 

In terms of timing, don’t expect to see much swell on Friday afternoon with the first of it moving through in the evening for the Mid N Coast and reaching SE QLD by the early morning. You won’t miss it’s peak  though as the swell pulses and ebbs throughout the weekend. There’ll be a peak on Saturday afternoon and then again on Sunday midday for the Mid N Coast later in the afternoon for SE QLD bug generally it’ll linger around that 6-8ft for the Mid N Coast and N NSW while the Gold Coast lingers around 4ft, Sunshine Coast smaller. 

On Saturday winds will be strong out of the S all day for all coasts. Sunday looks to be the day with light and variable winds in the morning, providing the best window for waves. Onshore sea breezes will develop as the day goes on so don’t wait too long. 

This swell event will bring larger conditions because of the positioning of the ridge of high pressure in the Tasman and the strength of the associated low and trough with the front. Persistent gales to the south and east of Tasmania, along the western flank of the low, will funnel the swell up towards our coastline. 

These winds remain strong and reasonably well aimed for over 24 hours meaning the swell will hang in for a while, explaining the ebb and pulse of the swell over the weekend.

The New Week

There’ll still be waves around on Monday with solid waves around in the morning, up around 4-6ft for N NSW, 4-5ft for the Mid N Coast and 3-4ft for the Gold Coast but the swell will begin to ease throughout the day. 

Winds will be light enough and out of the N early but the NE breeze will build early so get out there sooner rather than later to make the most of the waves and the conditions. 

Tuesday will see smaller waves but with NW winds the open beaches should have something depending on how your local banks fared after the weekend of solid S swell. Another S change will move through on Wednesday but we’ll dissect that on Friday, this forecast has already been left too late.