South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by James Casey (issued Wednesday 17th February)

Best Days: Saturday/Sunday for the points and southern corners, Monday, Tuesday morning

Outlook:

• Easterly trade swell sets up again delivering consistent 4-6ft SE/ESE swell for the next few days going more E into the start of the weekend 
• Low drifting down along QLD coast will do so quicker than previously mentioned meaning a different spread of swell possibilities. Now biggest for Mid N Coast but short-lived 8ft+ peak
• After low moves off coast on Monday/Tuesday S wind swell will fill in but looking smallest for the week ahead

Recap:

Swell built and filled in across the region today (Wednesday) as a mid period pulse of SE swell filled in to 4-6ft across the region thanks to sustained strong SE winds with a trough off the coast over the past few days. Unfortunately for the Mid North Coast and Northern NSW winds are SE and making it pretty bumpy everywhere except protected southern corners where it’s a little smaller. SE QLD enjoyed better winds out of the S but waves have a bit less size.  

Into the Weekend

It’s building steadily towards the weekend with this SE swell set to remain fairly consistent around that 4-6ft mark across the board. As is always the case SE QLD, especially the Sunshine Coast, will see less of this SE swell, more like 3-4ft for the Gold Coast and 2-3ft for the Sunshine Coast.

Winds will continue to be the issue for wave quality with ESE winds on Thursday, we will be confined to southern corners for the cleaner conditions. Friday winds look to be lighter although still SE and without any decent offshore breezes to clean it up it’s likely to still be a lumpy ocean, once again southern corners the pick.

Synoptically we have a trough off northern NSW interacting with a strong ridge west of New Zealand delivering persistent strong winds being directed towards our coast. These have been set up like this for a couple days but the ridge has extended a bit further north, meaning a shift towards a more easterly, rather than south-easterly, swell direction and set up a more trade like swell set up. The trough will pinch the ridge Thursday late/Friday delivering stronger winds and a longer period ESE swell for the start of the weekend.

This more easterly swell will begin to fill in on Saturday with SE QLD noticing the change in direction the most, with more size along the points, about 4-5ft for the Gold Coast, 4ft for the Sunshine Coact and 5-6ft for Northern NSW and the Mid North Coast. As this E trade swell arrives a low will begin to intensify off the QLD coast and bring a bit of a change up to conditions. 

This low pressure system will quickly move south and intensify meaning winds will shift to the S and an already active sea state will become heightened. For the Mid North Coast and Northern NSW a large E/ENE swell will bombard the coastline, with a short lived spike up around 8ft+ late Sunday/into Monday. Not many locations will be able to handle this spike so it’ll probably be better after the peak.

For SE QLD the low and it’s strongest winds won’t be as well aimed toward the coast, meaning SE QLD will miss out on the larger swell heights seen further south. Wave heights will already be solid though from the ESE trade swell, it just won’t be as solid as was mentioned on Monday. The strong S to SSW winds associated with the low will also clean up conditions quickly along the points so there are still plenty of positives to come out of this low and it will actually mean there’ll be more options so theoretically it’ll be less crowded out there. 

The change is unsurprising considering the nature of these low pressure systems. Further change wouldn’t be a surprise either with a bit of discrepancy between models on how quickly the low will move south and offshore from Monday onwards. 

The Start of the Week 

As mentioned above, how quickly the low moves south and east will determine what Monday looks like but at this stage it looks like Northern NSW will join SE QLD in seeing a bit less of the action on Monday afternoon with the Mid North Coast copping the brunt of it.

This shouldn’t be seen as a bad thing for Monday in Northern NSW and SE QLD as strong SW winds will make the points and southern corners nice and groomed and with swell looking to be more around the 4ft mark for Northern NSW, 3-4ft for the Gold Coast and 2-3ft for the Sunshine coast, rather than 8ft+ across the board. It will drop off quickly through out the day though as the low cuts off the wind generating the swell so don’t wait too long for it to be right for you.

For the Mid North Coast there won’t be too many options and expect a bit of coastal erosion from this event with banks to be pulverised by the 8ft+ E/ENE swell. Expect better waves on the backside of the peak with southern corners and points the places to look while the S winds prevail. 

By Tuesday afternoon the low looks to begin weakening and start moving away from the coastline but let’s keep an eye on it, plenty of elasticity required when looking at these systems. 

Strong S to SE winds will continue along the coast until we get closer to the weekend with a S wind swell to fill in along the coast as the low moves away. This S to SE wind swell looks to be solid 4-5ft but as is always the case, SE QLD will see less of it due to the direction not getting in as well.